Met Office Forecaster and Customer Requirements and Rationale

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Presentation transcript:

Met Office Forecaster and Customer Requirements and Rationale 7 March 2017

Usefulness of 3D view + Improve forecasting of CMEs. Coronagraph imagery at L1 and L5 - C2 & C3. 3D view would reduce CME timing errors from +/- 12 hrs to +/- 6 hrs (or less) ? Heliospheric imagery on L5. Monitor CMEs en-route - reduce timing errors to > +/- 3 hrs ? Improve background solar wind fields for heliospheric models? Solar wind from EUV & Mag L5 images. + Improve flare & CME forecasting from better sunspot analysis. HMI Visible Imagery and Magnetogram.

WSA ENLIL - L1 & L5 Modelling: Solar wind in heliosphere & CMEs More observations will improve accuracy.

3D Coronagraph view for CME analysis X2.2 flare 15 Feb 2011. Halo CME. +/- 6 hours target ?* longitude radial velocity latitude radius * George Millward (CU/NOAA) Vic Pizzo, Doug Biesecker (NOAA), Curt de Koning (CU/NOAA) WSA-Enlil in Operations at the National Weather Service: Experiences, Results and Developments, SWW, 2012 http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/images/u33/WSA_Enlil_SWW_2012.pdf

1D Coronagraph view for CME analysis X2.2 flare 15 Feb 2011. Halo CME. 1D reliant upon empirical techniques (ROB SIDC Cactus - margin of error 285 to 811 km/s, median 469 km/s). Plain-of-Sky velocity – NOAA SWPC RSGA 710 km/s. Accuracy +/- 12 hours ? Type II radio burst reports. Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2 Serial Number: 713 Issue Time: 2011 Feb 15 0348 UTC ALERT: Type II Radio Emission Begin Time: 2011 Feb 15 0151 UTC Estimated Velocity: 556 km/s Not always available or reliable – Can pick up Alfén side shock-waves.

Monitoring CMEs in Heliosphere Heliospheric Imager Stereo A RAL Space / SECCHI Consortium Images of the heliosphere from L5 would enable CME monitoring From Sun to Earth. And improve solar wind modelling.

Benefit of 3D view: Watching CMEs from Sun to Earth should reduce timing errors further - less than +/- 3 hours? Possible to modify prediction en-route. Increase confidence in prediction. Image Credit: NASA/STEREO/Scott Wiessinger https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/stereo/news/solarstorm-tracking.html

Solar wind from L5 EUV-Mag? Development of Coronal Hole 66 from Stereo A to SDO. Rotter, et al. Real-time solar wind prediction based on SDO/AIA coronal hole data, Solar Physics, 2015.

Accurate Sunspot Analysis Necessary for Flare Forecasting L5 Vis. & Mag. would enable accurate Sunspot classification near the eastern horizon. Flare probabilities are based on McIntosh / Zurich & Mt Wilson Classification - Fkc βγδ etc. Feeds into CME likelihood. Government and C.N.I. want 5-6 days notice of worrying sunspots – not possible with only 1D view – 2-3 days at present. Impact upon Ionosphere D-Region, HF comms, GNSS etc.