Politics of the Middle East Lebanon and Syria

People Population 6.2 Million Over 1 Million refugees Muslim 54% (27% Sunni, 27% Shia), Christian 40.5% (includes 21% Maronite Catholic, 8% Greek Orthodox, 5% Greek Catholic, 6.5% Druze 5.6%, Jews, Baha'is, Buddhists, Hindus, Mormons

Ottoman Empire from 1516 to 1918 Independence declared 8 November 1943 The last French troops withdrew in 1946. 1948, 100,000 Palestinians fled to Lebanon because of the war.

Modern Government parliamentary democratic republic Confessional System highest offices are proportionately reserved for representatives from certain religious communities Parties largely represent sectarian interests

Political blocs based local interests personal/family allegiance rather than on political affinities Christians Free Patriotic Movement, Phalange Party, National Bloc, National Liberal Party, Lebanese Forces, Guardians of the Cedars Shi‘ite Amal and Hezbollah Druze Progressive Socialist Party Sunni Hizb ut-Tahrir, Future Movement, Independent Nasserist Organization, Al-Tawhid, Ahbash.

The 1943 National Pact, divided 6-to-5 ratio of Christians to Muslims based on 1932 Census Taif Agreement of 1989 evened the ratio at 1 to 1 In the past, the system worked to produce a viable democracy. Events and demographic trends, have upset the delicate Muslim-Christian-Druze balance

Civil War 1975 - 1990 150,000 fatalities Fighting Began between Maronite Christians and factions of the PLO. Following Black September (1970) Militant Palestinian action shifted from Jordan to Lebanon PLO had been permitted to establish a semi-autonomous presence in the country with the help of other Arab and Islamist groups by the end of the war, nearly every party had allied with and betrayed every other party at least once

Competing Factions Maronite Christians Palestinians Sunni Muslims Shi’ite Muslims Druze Armenian

militias deteriorated into mafia-style organizations with many commanders turning to crime as their main occupation rather than fighting Sources of income Outside support: Notably from Syria and Israel. Other Arab governments and Iran Road checkpoints as taxation Smuggling: During the civil war, Lebanon turned into one of the world's largest narcotics producers

Foreign Intervention June 1976 Syria sent in troops 1982, the PLO attacks from Lebanon on Israel led to an Israeli invasion ‘Operation Peace for Galilee’

End of the War The 1989 Taif Agreement Parliament in defiance of the President instituted constitutional reforms

Hezbollah Formed in 1982 Response to Israeli invasion Trained by 1500, IRGC Forces in the Bekaa The State within the State ,Seats in Parliament, TV broadcasts and Military wing Social Services operates at least four hospitals, twelve clinics, twelve schools and two agricultural centres

People Population 18 Million down 3 million since the beginning of the conflict. 11 Million displaced, 4.8 Million in other countries Muslim 87% (official; includes Sunni 74% and Alawi, Ismaili, and Shia 13%) Christian 10%

Independence 1946, French Mandate military coups and coup attempts 1949–1971. November 1956, as a direct result of the Suez Crisis Syria signed a pact with the Soviet Union 1958 – 61 United Arab Republic Ba’athist Secret Military Committee; Captain Hafez al-Assad 1963 Ba’ath coup (Party split in Iraq and Syria)

1970 Corrective Movement, coup by Hafez al-Assad Personality cult, Loyalty schemes. Attempted unsuccessfully to appeal to religious legitimacy late 1970s, an Islamist uprising by the Muslim Brotherhood The uprising had reached climax in the 1982 Hama massacre, 40,000.

Government a unitary republic. The President is Head of State Prime Minister is Head of Government. legislature, the Peoples Council passing laws, approving government appropriations and debating policy. The executive branch consists of the president, two vice presidents, the prime minister, and the Council of Ministers

1994 Basher returned from London Basel al Assad who had been groomed for President was killed Hafez al-Assad died on 10 June 2000. Constitution changed to allow for the lowering of the legal age to assume the presidency

Damascus Spring 2000 Manifesto of the 99 Relaxation of some emergency laws Amnesty for imprisoned Muslim Brothers Followed by a crackdown on public desent

2012 Constitutional Reforms The constitution 2012 semi-presidential republic the president is elected by Syrian citizens in a direct election. Under the previous constitution no multi-party elections for the legislature with two-thirds of the seats automatically allocated to the ruling coalition. 7 May 2012, Syria held its first elections in which parties outside the ruling coalition could take part. July 2014 Assad elected with 88% of the vote