Root causes of food insecurity in Ethiopia David Mogollon 07th December 2016 – Addis Abeba

Introduction Significant economic growth Progress in poverty reduction and access to basic services However, still high vulnerability, poverty, food insecurity, malnutrition. Chronic food insecurity – humanitarian assistance.

Introduction Number of food aid beneficiaries Humanitarian crisis every single year Number of food aid beneficiaries

El Niño humanitarian crisis El Niño phenomenon Drought Assistance for: 10,2 M (HRD) + 7,9M (PSNP) Significant resource mobilisation Now Indian Ocean Dipole Focus on the short-term. Only drought?

Root causes: Demographic growth High Demographic growth: 2,5% Though fertility rate decreasing. Demographic transition

Root causes: Demographic growth

Root causes: Demographic growth Consequences: Overpopulation Pressure on resources Access to land Access to food Access to water Degradation Natural environment

Root causes: Demographic growth

Root causes: Climate factor

2d Root causes: Climate factor Overall rainfall: 848mm / year. No insufficiency of water 95 smallholder farmers rain-fed agriculture Water harvesting / storage capacities Climate change Less and more erratic rainfall Different impact

Root causes: Agricultural sector Agriculture: Livelihoods of 77% population. Productivity Dependence on rain-fed agri. Land tenure Shrinking land size Access to finance Access to technology Inputs: seeds & fertilisers Challenges

Root causes: wider economy trends Past High economic growth: Agriculture Limits absorption of rural population livelihoods Manufacturing & services Job opportunities GTP I Private sector

Root causes: wider economy trends Structural transformation will reduce share of agri. in employment Starting at $600 of per capita GDP, a 2.5 % growth over 20 years may lead to a reduction in labor share of agriculture from 52% to 40%, thereby possibly reducing the relative exposure to shocks

Root causes: Focus Vulnerable areas Overpopulation – Carrying capacity. Limitations alternative livelihoods. Dependent on Humanitarian and development assistance Basic services, food distribution And then what…? Are we part of the problem (incentives)? Internal Mobility as a coping strategy

Supporting the transition Demographic challenges: Accelerate demographic transition Carrying capacity and Internal mobility Management of rural to urban transition The climate factor: Water harvesting and storage capacities Adaptation to climate change

Supporting the transition Performance of the agricultural sector: Transforming the agricultural sector, land policy, access to land, land use & consolidation, etc. Tackling land degradation The wider economic aspects: Prioritise job creation Support industrial development Enabling environment for private sector

Supporting the transition In relation to vulnerable areas: Analysis carrying capacity / economic potential Building resilience Sustainability Linking humanitarian and development Facilitation Mobility: Mobil Safety Nets, social integration, skills, intermediation, etc. Integrate early warning systems

Supporting the transition Improve coordination among partners at different levels