Indian Oil Scenario Presented by Mr. Atul Chaturvedi.

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
Seeds -- a US$ 30 billion global industry
Advertisements

FY 2014 U.S. Agricultural Trade Forecasts Changes to FY 2014 Forecasts Exports $6.9 billion to $149.5 billion Imports $0.5 billion to $110.5 billion Surplus.
Castor remains our forte © Jayant Agro-Organics Limited Apr 2004 ABHAY V. UDESHI JAYANT AGRO-ORGANICS LTD. MUMBAI, INDIA CASTOR OIL MARKET OUTLOOK 2007.
“Agricultural productivity and the impact of GM crops: What do we know?” Ian Sheldon Andersons Professor of International Trade.
Edible Oil Sector in Pakistan By Mr. Ghulam Idris,
Indo Rama Synthetics (India) Ltd. Quarter 2 Results : Analyst Meet MUMBAI 01 NOV., 2007.
Palm & Vegoil Price Outlook for the next half year By Dorab E Mistry Godrej International Limited.
Shaping Growth of Petrochemicals in India Amit Chaturvedi Reliance Industries Limited 1.
Conference on “Strategy for Making India a Global Leader in Textiles and Apparels” 7 th April 2015 Stimulating Investments in MMF and Fabrics.
Price Outlook for World Veg Oils By Dorab E Mistry Godrej International Limited.
FAPRI Outlook Prospects for the Next Decade: The New Ag/Energy Nexus
Agricultural and Policy Development in China Agricultural and Policy Development in China Dr. Ke Bingsheng Director-General Research Center for Rural Economy,
1 Biodiesel: The implications for soybean and product markets International Oilseed Producer Dialogue IX June 16-17, 2006.
Prof. Anil Kumar Srivastava Director National Dairy Research Institute Karnal (India) R&D IN INDIAN AGRICULTURE: STATUS, SCOPE AND FUTURE ROAD MAP.
Canola: Competing in the World Food Oil Market Carl Hausmann President and CEO Bunge North America.
Cooking Oil Usage Pattern in India Avishek Singal Nimal Nithyanandham Ram Mohan M.P Ratnavel Subramanian.
Growth in Indian Commodities Market Mr Narendra Gupta, CBO, NCDEX August 10, 2005.
Commodity Market Outlook WBFI Annual Meeting T. Randall Fortenbery Professor School of Economic Sciences Washington State University.
Overview of the Global Oilseed Markets Annual Meeting National Cottonseed Products Association Santa Fe, New Mexico May 4, 2009 John Baize.
Food Processing in India The Indian food processing industry was valued at € 92 billion in 2005, a growth of 10% over the previous year. Indian food processing.
1 Overview of Indian Oilseed Sector & Short Term & Long Term Demand-Supply & Import of Edible Oils By: Dr.B.V.Mehta Executive Director The Solvent Extractors’
Medium Term Outlook for Indian Agriculture:
Development of Bio-Diesel Industry in the Philippines Richard Torres, D1 Oils ADB Headquarters, Manila, 25 May 2006.
FY 2015 U.S. Agricultural Trade Forecasts Changes to FY 2015 Forecasts Exports $1.0 billion to $143.5 billion Imports $1.0 billion to $116.0 billion Surplus.
© Noble Group, 2010 All rights reserved. Noble Group Proprietary Information – Internal Use Only – Not to be disclosed outside Noble Group India Maize.
DEEPIKA AGARWAL (ECE) D.MOUNICA (ECE) TALLA PADMAVATHI COLLEGE OF ENGINEERING.
Can agriculture survive cheap oil? BRIAN CLANCEY
APCA The State of Tennessee and U.S. Crop Agriculture as the New Farm Bill Approaches Daryll E. Ray University of Tennessee Agricultural Policy Analysis.
January 5-8, 2007 So Why Are There Farm Bills? Daryll E. Ray Blasingame Chair of Excellence Agricultural Policy Analysis Center University of Tennessee.
TURKISH OILSEEDS &VEGOILS OUTLOOK September 09, 2014, ​ HILTON KIEV, UKRAINE BLACK SEA OIL TRADE-2014.
OIL SEED PROCESSING By: Durgesh Kumar. About Oil Seeds Oil yielding produce Oil yielding produce Plant product Plant product Rich in Oil & Fat content.
The Chinese Agricultural Sector after Admittance to the WTO Won W. Koo Director and Professor Center for Agricultural Policy and Trade Studies North Dakota.
Conference Proceedings: Partnered by – Reshamwala Shipbrokers Presentation by:Gavin Maguire Asia Commodities Editor in Charge,Thomson Reuters Globoil India.
Workshop on Medium Term Outlook for India’s Food Sector Overview of the Issues by by Shashanka Bhide NCAER Project Supported by Food and Agriculture Organisation.
Globoil 29 September Jonathan Grange.
FY 2014 U.S. Agricultural Trade Forecasts Changes to FY 2014 Forecasts Exports $2.0 billion to $137.0 billion Imports $3.5 billion to $109.5 billion Surplus.
Indo Rama Synthetics (India) Ltd. Analyst Meet Quarter 2 & H Results and The opportunities ahead Mumbai 18 October, 2006.
Oilseed markets situation IOPD IX June 16-17,2006 San Francisco.
FY 2014 U.S. Agricultural Trade Forecasts Changes to FY 2014 Forecasts Exports $5.6 billion to $142.6 billion Imports $0.5 billion to $110.0 billion Surplus.
IMC-ERTF Rabi Crop ) Prospects and Food Inflation Outlook Mumbai. January 11, 2016 Opening Remarks G. Chandrashekhar Economic Advisor, IMC and.
OILSEED & WHEAT OUTLOOK: 2015/16 Scott Sindelar Minister-Counselor United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agriculture Service
Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative Serving the Oilseed, Oil & Meal Industries, Trade, Organizations & Associations World Supply, Demand and Price Outlook.
QUESTION 1 : THE PROSPECT OF THE MARKET AND RESPECTIVE SECTOR IN THE SHORT RUN AND LONG RUN From the Independent market research report by FROST & SULLIVAN:
Feeding 1.3 billion: Role of Incentives and Technology in Chinese Agriculture Jikun Huang Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy Chinese Academy of Sciences.
© 2016 Global Market Insights. All Rights Reserved Bio fertilizers market size to reach $1.66 billion by 2022.
Challenges faced by Indian Crushing and Refining Industry and Way Forward By Dr. B. V. Mehta, Executive Director The Solvent Extractors’ Association of.
1 Indian Edible Oils Demand & Supply And Outlook for By Govindbhai G. Patel Managing Partner At Globoil India 2016 At Goa On 23 rd Sept., 2016.
“To forget how to dig the earth and to tend the soil is to forget ourselves.” - Mohandas K. Gandhi.
ECOWAS Model Structure and Training Jim Hansen, Nancy Cochrane, and Getachew Nigatu USDA, Economic Research Service.
UKRAINE BUMPER CROP OF SFS IN 2016/17 AND SUNFLOWER OIL MARKET DEVELOPMENT Speaker: SVITLANA SYNKOVSKA, Marketing Director APK-INFORM AGENCY.
India- Role of Global Trade Flows McDonald Pelz Global Commodities
Jim Hansen, Syd Cochrane, Getachew Nigatu Agricultural Economist
GLOBOIL INDIA 2016 Abdul Rasheed Janmohammed
Trends in African Agricultural Trade
Wheat Scenario: Global & India
Agriculture, Food Security & Inclusiveness : Challenges
“Until lions have their historians,
World Supply, Demand and Price Outlook for Oilseeds and Oilmeals
Indonesia Seed Industry is dominated by PT Bisi International Tbk, PT East West Seed Indonesia, PT DuPont Indonesia, PT Syngenta Indonesia, Monsanto Indonesia.
Agriculture Market Update (Cotton & Crude Palm Oil)
Global Veg Oils Price Outlook
Global Supply & Demand of Soybeans and Soy Oil
Khulja Sim Sim Sanjiv Sawla Sesame Seed Panel Convenor 2017 – 18
IMPORTANCE OF AGRICULTURE
INDIAN AGRICULTURE ABOUT…. ACHIEVEMENTS GREEN REVOLUTION EXPORTS
Recent Developments in Veg Oils Outlook
Global Outlook: Fisheries & Aquaculture
Fundamental Approach to Price Forecasting 2019
GLOBOIL INTERNATIONAL 2019 Abdul Rasheed Janmohammed
Palm Oil Market Review and Outlook 2020
Presentation transcript:

Indian Oil Scenario Presented by Mr. Atul Chaturvedi

Indian Oilseed Sector 2016-17 (At a Glance) Area Under Oilseed Cultivation 28.2 Million Hectare Average Yield 960 kg Output of 9 Cultivated Oilseeds* 27.1 Million Ton Output of Cottonseed & Copra* 11.5 Million Ton Total 38.6 Million Ton Production of Oilcake/Meal 27.4 Million Ton Production Edible & Non-edible Veg. Oils 7.6 Million Ton Demand of Veg. Oils (Edible) 22.0 Million Ton Import of Veg. Oil 2016-17 (Edible) 15.0 Million Ton Per capita consumption(approx) 17 Kg The Overall turn over of the oilseed sector is Rs.175,000 Crores (28 Billion) and on import front, its 3rd item after Crude Petroleum and Gold. India spending over Rs.70,000 crores (11/12 bln.$) for import of edible oils per annum and dependence on import is nearly 70%. * Trade Estimates

Oilseeds Production (Trade Estimate) (2012-13 to 2016-17) Major Oilseeds 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 Groundnut 4.3 6.5 4.9 4.5 6.9 Rape/Mustard 6.7 5.1 5.9 7.2 Soybean 10.7 9.5 8.5 10.6 Others 2.8 2.6 2.7 2.4 Sub-Total 24.7 25.3 21.1 20.3 27.1 Cottonseed 10.2 12.5 11.9 10.9 Copra 0.6 0.7 Grand Total 35.5 38.5 33.6 31.8 38.6 Source: SEA Note : Government estimate for major nine oilseeds is higher than trade estimate Stagnant Oilseed Production. Soya and Mustard languishing Groundnut should not be considered an Oilseed. Oilseed production increase has not kept pace with increase in consumption.  

Estimates for oilseed Production 2016-17 Vs 2017-18 Production in Million tons 2016-17 2017-18 Change in % Groundnut 6.9 6.6 (-) 4.3 Soybean 10.6 9.0 (-) 15.09 Rape Mustard 7.2 7.0 (-) 2.7 Others 2.4 2.5 (+) 4.1 Total 27.1 25.1 (-) 7.3 Cottonseed 10.9 12.4 (+) 13.7 Copra 0.6 38.6 38.1 (-) 1.3 Bumper Cotton crop has cushioned the shortfall of Soya and Groundnut. Cottonseed is now emerging as India’s top oilseed. Soya, Groundnut loosing ground.

Domestic Oil Availability 2016-17 Vs 2017-18 2016-2017 2017-2018 Groundnut oil 5.70 Soya 14.4 Rape Mustard 18.7 Cotton 12.4 13.2 Rice Bran 9.6 10.0 Others 9.7 8.5 Total 70.5 The source of the above data is Govind Bhai and his GGN-research. Govind Bhai anticipates increase of 6.10 lakhs MB of domestic oil on account of large carryout. We feel crushing may remain lukewarm and carryout is becoming a norm. We feel oil availability domestically may remain same.

Edible Oil Consumption in India (Oil wise) Particulars 2001-02 2007-08 2015-16 Qty % Palm Oil 2944 29.08 4437 35.81 9685 45.41 Soy Oil 2258 22.30 2170 17.51 4872 22.84 Mustard Oil 1721 17.00 1814 14.64 1938 9.09 Sunflower Oil 309 3.05 539 4.35 1541 7.22 Cotton Oil 443 4.38 1070 8.64 1267 5.94 Groundnut Oil 1216 12.01 689 5.56 239 1.12 RBO 430 4.25 770 6.21 930 4.36 Others 804 7.94 901 7.27 858 4.02 Total 10125 100% 12390 21330 Consumption has grown from 10Mln to 22Mln in 16 yrs.( 120%) Domestic oils now constitute only 30% of total consumption. Consumption of Palm oil in India is now nearly 45% of the total consumption followed by Soybean oil and Rapeseed Oil.

Per capita consumption of edible oil in India vs. World S. No Year India World 1 2000-2001 11.1 18.95 2 2009-2010 13.3 24.54 3 2016-2017 17 25 Rising income levels and cheap imports have helped increase per capita consumption. Indian Growth story is very much intact and our demand will keep growing.

Import Break-Up (MMT) Oils 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 Palm (Edible) 9.54 8.44 8.9 Soybean Oil 2.99 4.23 4.0 Sun Oil 1.54 1.52 1.80 Rapeseed Oil 0.35 0.38 0.30 Sunflower Oil - 0.01(--) Total 14.42 14.57 15.0 Palm constitutes biggest slice of oil import followed by Soya and Sun. Incremental imports in last few years have been cornered by Soft Oils Sunflower Oil imports may rise on account of duty advantage Imports may rise by one million tons per annum

Import Projection 2017-18 Import may go up by 0.8 to 1.0 million tons. Oilseed Projection (Million Tons) Palm 9.50 Soya 4.0 Sunflower 2.0 Rapeseed 0.30 Total 15.8 Import may go up by 0.8 to 1.0 million tons. We project consumption growth at around 4%. Sunflower and Palm may gain while Soya may remain unchanged in volumes.

Indian Consumption Growth Expectations Year Population @ 1.76% Growth Consumption @ 3% Growth @ 4% Growth @ 5% Growth In Bn. Per Capita (In Kg) MnT 2015 1.25 15.2 19.00 15.6 19.5 15.9 19.87 2017 1.28 16.0 20.48 17.0 21.75 17.4 22.27 2019 1.31 18.0 23.58 19.1 25.02 2021 1.34 23.79 25.70 21.0 27.72 2023 1.38 19.0 25.24 21.1 27.80 23.2 30.56 2025 1.42 20.2 26.78 22.8 30.0 25.6 33.69 Assuming 4% growth we may require 30MMT by 2025. Import s can rise to 21-22 million ton if oilseed production stagnates. Edible Oil security in danger.

What needs to be done ? Land consolidation through leasing and Corporate farming Allow GM cultivation Encourage Mustard & Soya Cultivation Support Producer instead of Consumer Bury Essential Commodities Act. Encourage Palm cultivation in South India

Thank You