Past, Present and Future: Riding the Age Wave in Northeast Ohio Celebration of Human Services October 20, 2017

As many of you know, the demographics across the world are changing As many of you know, the demographics across the world are changing. In the world, country and here in Ohio, the population is aging. These maps from Scripps Gerontology Center show the projected growth in older adults throughout the state county by county.

By 2030, older adults will outnumber children in half Ohio’s counties. Age 65+ Age 45-64 20-44 Under Age 20 Counties with more people age 65+ than under age 20 in 2030, projected Heard a lot about the aging baby boomers, silver tsunami. In 2010, none of Ohio’s 88 counties had more older adults than children. The closest was Noble County in Southeast Ohio where 21.1% of the population was under age 20 and 20.8% were over age 65. But in 2010, the oldest baby boomers had not yet turned 65. By 2030, it’s projected that older adults over age 65 will outnumber children (under age 20) in 44 of Ohio’s 88 counties. This change will impact counties in NEO in particular. This aging of the population will impact both service needs and resources available. In 2014 CCS released a study, “Aging Ohio: The Impact of Demographic Change on State Fiscal Policy.” the student projected that the number of individuals in Ohio’s working age population (25-64) will fall by 452,000 or 10% between 2010 and 2035. As more individuals retire, we projected that income tax base will fall by 13.5% causing annual state revenue to fall nearly $1.2 billion annually. This includes the added costs for deductions for Social Security Income, excess medical expenses, retirement income and pension credits, which are expected to continue to will grow. We projected that annual appropriations will need to increase nearly $680 million to cover increased Medicaid spending for long term care, assuming favorable trends in long-term care costs. There are more children of color, so diversity will become more apparent over time. Source: Scripps Gerontology Center

Ohio has a large working age population, and a growing share of seniors ages 65+. This is the population pyramid for Ohio. Males on left in blue, Females in right in red. This is Ohio’s population right now. Basically each bar represents people in a 5-year age range. Population pyramids tell us whether a population is growing or shrinking and what (if any) demographic shifts to expect. Beehive shape. Low birth rate, low death rate, low population growth rate. Large working population, large number of “old dependents”. Goes in at bottom which indicates low birth rate, which will result in shrinking population, but somewhat offset by the fact that there is a low death rate because most people are making it to working age and beyond. An increasing proportion of the population is in the 65+ age group, growing in the future. Right now, 15.5% of Ohio’s population is over age 65. But the next age group (45-64) is the largest at 27.4% of the current population. In 15 years, those people in the brackets will be over age 60. We’ve seen this hump move through as baby boomers age. Next, smaller hump is Millennials. There are over 1 million Ohio women over age 65, and 777,000 men over age 65. Women have tended to live longer. 27% of Ohioans 65+ have been widowed, and 46% are householders living alone. Which of course has implications for services and communities. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2015 1-Year Estimates

Income in the Past 12 Months, Ohio Older Adult (65+) Households Most seniors rely on a combination of earnings, retirement, and Social Security. Income in the Past 12 Months, Ohio Older Adult (65+) Households 45% of older adult households rely, at least in part, on wages earned. But mean income for older adults is less than that for all ages in Ohio – seniors are earning about 77% of earnings for all ages – a difference of $15,000 per year. Retirement income is pensions or IRAs/401(k) investment payouts. And you can see that most seniors rely at least in part on social security. (This is just Old-Age & Survivors and does not include SSI or SSD). Public Assistance: SNAP/Food Stamps 10%, $3,074 (assistance group all ages) Supplemental Security Income 6%, $9,495 Cash Public Assistance 2%, $2,240 EARNINGS RETIREMENT Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2015 1-Year Estimates

Ohio’s older adults differ from the rest of the population in important ways. ALL Ohioans Ages 45-64 Ages 65+ White Alone, not Hispanic/Latino 79.7% 84.2% 88.4% Moved within Last Year 1,674,415 people 335,718 people 134,380 people 11% 8% Below Poverty 15% 17% In Labor Force Ohioans over age 65 are less racially & ethnically diverse, less educated, and less likely to be in the labor force than other age groups and Ohio as a whole. Looking at the upcoming cohort: 63% 72% 44.0% HS Grad or Less 45.0% 57.3% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2015 1-Year Estimates

Past, Present, Future Past: Play Bingo! Present: Current Aging Concerns Future: Interactive Polling

Panelists Mary McNamara, Director of Aging, City of Cleveland Susan Sigmon, Vice President of Managed Long Term Care, Direction Home Toni Gelsomino, Director of Health and Human Services, City of Lakewood Moderated by Maria Thompson, Manager of Community Development and Baking, Third Federal Savings & Loan