Middle East Cold War Sectarianism

Sectarianizing the Middle East 1979 Islamic Revolution shifts the paradigm away from the Arab Cold War, to the Middle East Cold War Religious identity defines divisions Alliances based on common enemies and common interests Religion as a political tool

sUNNI SHI’ITE Followers of Ali 10-13% of Muslims 11-14% in the Middle East-North Africa region Around 70% of Shias live in Iran, Pakistan, India and Iraq. Major Sects: Imami, Ismailis, Zaydi Sunnah, example of the Prophet Around 85% of Muslims Divided among 4 major and 1 minor schools of legal thought. Hanafi, Shafii, Malaki, Hanbali, Zahiri Salafism, Wahhabism

Sunni Belief Muhammad died without appointing a successor Companions gathered and elected Abu Bakr the first Caliph. Father of Muhammad's wife Aisha, Caliph should be democratically chosen After the Rashidun (first four Caliphs) hereditary dynastic is rule practiced

Shi’ite Belief on Succession God chose Ali to be Muhammad's successor Ali was Muhammad's cousin and closest living male relative, married to Muhammad's daughter Fatimah The Farewell Pilgrimage Hadith of the pond of Khum Shia believe Mohammed appointed Ali caliph Ali did not profess to be the Caliph at that time, he is later elected as the 4th Caliph

Hidden Imam Where Sunnis view the Caliphs to be the historical leaders of the Islamic community, Shia follow a line of Infallible Imams as Islamic Leaders Imami Shia believe Muhammad ibn Hasan al-Mahdī the 12th Imam was hidden by God from humanity in the Occultation in 874 The Mahdi is savior of humankind who will emerge with Isa (Jesus) bringing peace and justice to the world. Sunni believe that the Mahdi has not yet been born and is not necessarily connected to the end of time

Cold War Blocs Revolutionary Bloc Led by Iran (Russian Support) Status Quo Bloc Led by Saudi Arabia (US Support)

Cold Conflicts Bahrain Syria/ Iraq Lebanon Yemen Afghanistan

Saudi Allies Jordan The Gulf States Salafi anti al Assad groups Hadi Government in Yemen

Iran Allies Bashar al Assad government Bahrain Shia Shia militias in Iraq Iraqi government Iraqi Kurds (pending) Hezbollah Houthi Shi’ites in Yemen

Other Actors Israel, tentatively pro Saudi United States, pro Saudi Pakistan, pro Saudi Russia, pro al Assad and Iran China, seeks to avoid constraining relations

Iraq 1979 – 2003 Shifting the Balance Saddam Hussein limited hegemonic ambitions of Saudi and Iran through non-alignment and pursuing and independent course 2003 invasion changed MECW dynamics Iran gains influence Saudi Arabia paranoia Jihadist return to the region

Shia Crescent King Abdullah II, “If pro-Iranian parties or politicians dominate the new Iraqi government a new crescent of dominant Shia movements or governments stretching from Iran, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon could emerge.”

Great Powers as Client States US Gulf Relations US Military presence; Kuwait, Saudi, Qatar, Bahrain, Iraq, UAE, Jordan Obama admnistration’s engagement with Iran concerns Saudi Trump seeks to restore confidence in US support for Saudi

Russia Instrumental in the survival of al Assad government Close ties with Iran Naval and Air bases in Syria

Arab Revolutions Bahrain uprising Quelled by troops from UAE and Saudi Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati “All Islamic countries, as long as they're not themselves involved in the crime, bear responsibility to support the Bahrainis in their fight,“ 70% Shi’ite Political Naturalization 1981 Iran backed plan to depose al Khalifa Dynasty

Egypt "The awakening of the Islamic Egyptian people is an Islamic liberation movement and I, in the name of the Iranian government, salute the Egyptian people and the Tunisian people,“ Ayatollah Khamenei Egypt under Mubarak an ally of Saudi Arabia The revolution and election of Morsey represented an opportunity for Iran to gain influence Return of the Military, al Sisi

Assad Must Go/ Assad Must Stay Turkey, Saudi Arabia, US, Europe Russia, Iran US, al Assad out, IS defeated, ‘Moderate’ rebels empowered Saudi Arabia, Assad out, IS defeated, Islamic groups take power Turkey: Assad out, No Kurdish independence, IS defeated. Who is left? Russia: Assad remains, Russian military presence solidified (Tartus) Greater influence in Iraq, reduced US influence Iran: Assad remains, Hezbollah and Iraqi Shi’ite empowered, Continued influence in Iraq, reduced Saudi influence

The War in Yemen Houthi Shia Rebels Yemeni Government AQAP and Ansar al Sharia Saudi Arabia, “to protect the people of Yemen from a radical organization that has allied with Iran and Hezbollah.”

Future of the MECW How will the nuclear deal affect Iranian foreign relations,…. And Saudi fears? Can sectarianism be put aside after defeat of IS? Federation in Iraq, Syria? Kurds? What will Turkeys increasingly important role be? What is the impact of Russian involvement? What role will US policy play? Will a new paradigm emerge?