Question 3 - What might the world’s energy future be? Energy Security and the Future Aims of this lesson – to have learnt: Why is there uncertainty about global future energy supply? Why is there uncertainty about global future energy demand? Is there enough energy?

From the Spec: 3.1: There is uncertainty over both global energy supply in terms of reserves (e.g. peak oil and gas) and demand (economic growth rates, conservation of resources, a switch to renewable sources, population change) Investigate: A range of energy supply and demand projections Economic projections based on the projections

For each factor consider what the effect would be on global energy if (a) it went up, (b) it went down, (c) it stayed the same e.g. if China and India’s economies keep growing, slow down or stay the same

There is an increasing realisation that any downturn in energy supplies could trigger an economic collapse. For instance, oil: There has been a massive increase in global oil consumption (including the emerging economies) We may have reached “Peak Oil” – this will lead to declining production and therefore rising prices. There is disagreement over ‘peak oil’ – some scientists say 2005, some 2015 and some 2020. As oil runs out in some places, production will be concentrated in a small number of (increasingly powerful) countries OPEC and Russia are therefore increasingly able to hold places to ‘ransom’

Summary: Energy security and the future There are several key uncertainties relating to energy futures: Future demand is uncertain – it partly depends on future population and economic growth The lifespan of fossil fuel reserves, especially oil, is unknown The extent to which we exploit unconventional oil (see image) The extent and timing of switching from fossil fuel to renewables is uncertain. Peak oil and gas are important; after peak production prices can only rise.

Use pages 36 – 39 (including ALL of the graphics) to add to your notes about the uncertain energy future. Which do you think will have the greater impact – climate change or peak oil? Explain your reasons and give evidence to back your opinions.