Factors affecting the likely success of referenda

Can we identify and explain factors that could affect the success of referendum?

Brainstorm… you task to conect In your table groups, the starting person (the person with the LONGEST hair) must name one factor that might affect the likely success of a referendum. Going clockwise, everyone at the table must have a turn, although you can pass

Strengths and weaknesses of referendum to alter division of lawmaking powers

Strengths and weaknesses of change by referendum Strengths of altering division of lawmaking powers by referendum Weaknesses Strengths of altering division of lawmaking powers by referendum Double majority provisions ensure that only those proposals that have overwhelming support are successful The low success rate – which can be largely attributed to the double majority provision (very difficult to attain) and timing, complexity of question – 8/44 proposals successful Smaller states are protected from domination by more populated states due to needing support from majority of states (4/6) Must pass through Commonwealth Parliament houses, therefore greatly controlled by the Commonwealth which often proposes increases in their own power The lengthy process means that proposals are considered in full, thereby protecting the constitution from changes without merit Lengthy and costly – 1999 referendum cost 66 million dollars

Reasons why referenda may fail- Of 44 referendum only 8 have been successful – 4 of these in changing the division of lawmaking power Referendum proceedings have proven very unsuccessful since Federation. Since 1901 there have been 19 referenda. In those 19 referenda, there have been 44 proposals. Only eight of the 44 proposals received support from the voters.

Timing

Timing Referendums are often held at the same time as a general election to minimise costs People then are more focused on who to elect than the referendum In times of uncertainty, people generally vote No

Strict formula for change/double majority

Strict formula for change/double majority The formula (s.128 Constitution) is rigid in demanding that the proposal satisfy half of voters to be accepted in at least four of six states as well as majority of voters nation wide Founding fathers wanted to make sure any change to constitution had overwhelming support While 13/44 referendum proposals received the support of a majority of Australians overall, 5 of these did not satisfy the majority of “yes” votes in a majority of states requirement Eg- 1977 Referendum involving simultaneous elections Failed as even though supported by 62.2 % of all Australian voters, only majority of voters in 3 states agreed

Difficulty gaining bipartisan support

Difficulty gaining bipartisan support Unless referendum questions have bipartisan support (two party support) from the leaders of the major political parties, they will almost certainly fail Parties who do not support the proposal will often urge their supporters not to vote yes 1967 Referendum on right for Aboriginal and Torres Straight Islander peoples gained bipartisan support and support of Australian public

Confusing/complex information

Confusing/complex information Referendum proposals are often complex and difficult to express in simple language If voters do not understand issue, they are unlikely to support proposal Eg- most succesfful referenda were simple Eg- 1967 Referendum amended s.51 to give Commonwealth Parliament jurisdiction over Aboriginal affairs

Voter conservatism

Voter conservatism People can have resistance to change if they believe the system is working well the way it is Unfortunately for Constitutional reform, some sections of Australian society mistrust politicians Any referendum proposal is therefore seen by these people as a “grab for power”

High cost

High cost Referendums are expensive 1999 republican referendum cost $66 820 894 It may be too expensive to fund

Desire to maintain states’ rights

Desire to maintain states’ rights Many referendum proposals have been perceived by the States as shifting too much power to the Commonwealth Parliament They therefore have been rejected When put to voters, if a premier urges voters to say “no” it is almost sure to fail

Impact of referenda on the Constitution The main impact of successful referenda is that it alters the wording of the Constitution . Words can be altered, added or deleted This in turn can alter the division of law making power, giving the Commonwealth power in an area that was once residual (state power) Eg: 1967 the words “other than the aboriginal race in any state” were removed from section 51 of Constitution” gave the Commonwealth the ability to legislate for Aborigines where this was once a state power However, other referendum, such as the retirement of judges at age 70, have had no impact upon the division of state and commonwealth law making powers

2.5 1.)Explain why the actual requirements needed to change the Constitution via a referendum have hindered change. 2.)Give an example of a referendum proposal that may have been too complex leading to a ‘no’ vote. 3.)Why is bipartisan support so crucial to achieving success in a referendum? 4.)Explain why a desire to maintain states' rights may result in referenda not being passed.
 5.) In the following examples state whether each referendum would have passed. A.) A majority of Australians agree to the referendum proposal and two out of the six states achieve a majority of votes for the proposal. B.) A majority of Australians do not agree to the referendum proposal and four out of six states achieve a majority of votes for the proposal. C.) A majority of Australians agree to the referendum proposal and five out of six states achieve a majority of votes for the proposal.

Exam question One way of changing the Commonwealth Constitution is through holding a referendum. Explain how this process operates and discuss why it has had only partial success in altering the Constitution. 6 marks