Jostein Nygard, Marija Kuzmanovic Poverty-Environment Nexus in the Lower Mekong Sub-region Cambodia, Lao PDR and Vietnam PEN Conference in Vientiane June 21-22, 2006 Jostein Nygard, Marija Kuzmanovic

Outline Conference Objectives and Participants Conference Agenda Why focus a PEN study on this region? - The lower Mekong Sub-regional context - Unique & shared poverty – environment features Objectives of the study Measuring Poverty and Environment Main challenges the study faced Sector selection, identified study areas Finalization, next steps

PEN Conference in Vientiane Objectives: Present findings from the PEN study (conference edition published) Share knowledge and experience on PEN issues in the greater Mekong sub-region; Participants National and local governments (5 countries) National and international research institutes; International and bilateral donors; Non-governmental organizations; the media.

Conference Agenda Follow the structure of the conference edition report Introduction Chapter 1 – Introduction Chapter 2 – PEN findings in Cambodia Chapter 3 – PEN findings in Lao PDR Chapter 4 – PEN findings in Vietnam Add PEN experiences in China and Thailand Chapter 5 - (Sub)-regional Findings (common, specific) Possible areas for collaboration (information sharing, inter-boarder subjects)

The Lower Mekong Sub-regional Context one of poorest regions in East Asia (IDA eligible countries) Rapidly growing economies and significant poverty reduction, particularly in Vietnam long legacy of conflict (wars) Lao PDR & Vietnam –transition economies; Cambodia - mostly a market economy

Unique and Shared Features of Environment and Poverty in Sub-Region Specific to Vietnam   Shared by Laos and Vietnam Specific to Lao PDR Absolute number of poor concentrated in lowlands. Upland poverty: Indochina Cordillera Rural-to-rural migration at core of Government policy Strong government institutions Poverty reduction policy targeting the uplands Widely diversified economy reflecting many sectors with PEN features. Mainly planned economy in transition Shared by Vietnam & Cambodia Specific to Cambodia Shared by Lao PDR and Cambodia Urban poverty Post-war migration Weak institutional & legal capacity Flood regime in the central region Mainly market economy Shared by the three countries Access to natural resources critical to the poorest’s basic livelihood conditions Disproportionately low access to clean water and sanitation by the poor. Rural poverty traps in environmentally-fragile uplands and marginal areas Growing urban poverty with environmental health issues Migration

Objectives of the Study (p.4) Based upon a combination of national analyses and agreed case studies in each of the three countries: (i) identify and elaborate upon poverty and environment linkages; (ii) review policy implications vis-à-vis these identified PENs (integration in poverty-reduction work); (iii) If possible, establish relevant links to ongoing PEN project initiatives in the sub-region (p. 7)

Measuring poverty One definition: poverty is inability to meet one’s basic consumption needs (food, clothes, housing etc). Defined as such, poverty be measured through determining someone’s income or consumption expenditure Also significant: non-monetary poverty relative poverty i.e. level of inequality Poverty Indicators: Depth of poverty –measures how far below the poverty line people are; Poverty density - measures how many poor people live in particular area; shows where most poor people live

Poverty: From Provincial to local perspectives (Example from Cambodia)

Environmental Indicators Sustainable land use indicators Forest cover Land gradient Access to water and sanitation Industrial pollution Indoor air pollution Outdoor air pollution Health impacts Natural disasters

Environmental indicators (continued) Access to Water Access to Sanitation

Data Analysis Combination of national analysis and case study work at more local levels; as such, studies complement each other and provide comprehensive scope of analysis “Micro-level” analysis includes province, district, commune, village and household level Modes of analysis: - Correlation analysis; - Mapping - Regressions; - Ranking

Combining Data to Identify Linkages Diarrhea High-Low High-High Luangprabang Huaphanh Champasack Savannakhet Low-Low Xaysomboon SR Sekong Borikhamxay Low-High Poverty Access to Water and Sanitation and the Prevalence of Diarrhea in Lao PDR (‘97/’98) Luangprabang Huaphanh Champasack Savannakhet National average Average # cases 916 926 1585 1920 629 Households with piped/ well water 37% 23% 58% 66% 44% Households with sanitation 25% 36% 14% 11% 26% Rural households with safe water 48% 62% 76% 77% 54% Rural households with sanitation 28% 18% 32% 31% ρpoor x diarrhea = 0.75

Combining Data To Identify Linkages Poverty quartiles (% poor) 0 – 25% 25 – 41% 41 – 64% 64 – 96% Country % HH without access to piped, protected well/ bore hole (“safe water”) 71.1 89.0 88.0 95.0 84.2 Ranked Number of Poor and Ranked No Access to Piped Water/ Well ρpoor x safe water = 0.85

Hilly & Mixed districts Map overlays Lowland/Upland Factor In Vietnam: Poverty rates increase with elevation, but numbers of poor are highest in low elevations District category 1/ Lowland Hilly & Mixed districts Mountainous Number of districts 282 195 134 Mean elevation (m) 45 441 925 Number of poor (M people, 1999) 12.4 10.5 5 % poor 28 43 62 Rural density (inhab/km²) 418 185 % ethnic minority people 4 15 61 % agricultural land 65 24 12 Paddy per rural capita (m²) 958 471 549 % of area with slope < 8° 98 59 32 % of area with slope > 30° 3 8 Forest land area (M ha) 1.6 4.4 5.6 % forest land in land area 22 38 37

Elevation Poverty

Main Challenges Complex data requirements Responding to challenging questions from client countries Some Examples: - In Cambodia, what are the effect on poor from land/forest concessions, vs. community management vs. national park management? - In Vietnam, (i) what are the effects on poor vs. noon poor by the land law? (ii) what are the effects on poor vs noon poor from polluting craft villages (local industrial) in neighboring villages? - In Lao PDR, what are the impact on the poor in small towns from water & sanitation deficiencies (compared to rural areas). Complex data requirements Need data at different administrative levels (national, provincial, county, commune, villages, households) – and particularly local levels - to be able to respond to the questions. Need data from different sectors (health, environment, social/poverty, rural development) to be able to respond.

Poverty & environment linkage areas with impact on highest number of people Environment & Health indicator: Cambodia Lao PDR Vietnam Estimated Number of People Affected % of non-poor population % of poor population Decline in Forest resources* 66 percent 70 percent More data needed Use of fragile land < 20percent < 45 percent Fuelwood/indoor air pollution 90 percent 99 percent 95 percent 98 percent 80 percent > 90 percent Lack of water supply** 16 percent 22 percent 20 percent 30 percent 15-20 percent 25-30 percent Lack of sanitation 60 percent 40 percent 10-12 percent 30-35 percent Households always boiling drinking water 35 percent Drought*** 12 percent 0.2 percent 1.7 percent Flooding*** 24 percent 23 percent 5 percent 1 percent 1.3 percent 1.1 percent UXO/Minefield contamination**** 19 percent 28 percent

Policy-orientation & Dialogue Strong emphasis on country ownership Significant weight given to government priorities in poverty reduction National government involvement in the study: Indicators Relevant actions Cambodia Lao PDR Vietnam National/government involvement Identification of PEN subjects, Data provision Data provision and analysis; Direct involvement in study location selection. Direct involvement in study location selection Number of government departments involved  Two (MOE and MoP) (Consultations)  Five (STEA, MPI, MTCTP, MOA, MoH)  Three (MONRE, MPI, MOH) Workshops, conferences (size, diversity of participants)[1]  One consultation workshop in December 2005 Four consultation workshops hosted by provincial governments  One national consultation workshop in June2005. Introduction workshop in December 2002 One national consultation workshop in August 2005 Expressed commitment from government officials and institutions TBD   Prime minister's office written statement for inter-ministerial coope-ration under PEN study Vice Ministers of MONRE and MPI written support for PEN Initiated follow-up activities after PEN  Follow-up on the Poverty Assessment with PEN findings. Could identify e.g.WSS activities  Elaboration of PEN findings in PE context. Identify WSS-poverty activities Possible lending program focusing on PEN findings. (River Basin pollution control etc)

Finalization Process (next days & weeks): Obtained comments from several reviewers. … however, need to obtain feedback from you at this conference and incorporate your relevant comments into the report Two levels: Country specific findings Sub-regional findings