Augusto Castro-Nuñez University of Copenhagen Potential synergies between forest carbon-storage and peacebuilding policies Augusto Castro-Nuñez University of Copenhagen I will present you preliminary results about a story related to forest carbon mitigation efforts in areas experiencing armed conflicts. The title of my presentation is: Reasons for forest carbon conservation among farmers in the Colombian Amazon. Cali, October 19th, 2016

Key concepts and background of the study

Peacebuilding Refers to measures aimed at: reducing the risk of conflict addressing causes of conflict strengthening capacities for conflict management, achieving sustainable peace and development (UN, 2010).

REDD Result based payments Reduction of emissions from deforestation and forest degradation; and the role of conservation, sustainable forest management, and enhancement of carbon “stocks”. Co-Benefits (+) Forest reference levels Non- Forest Forest Country threatened forest 2015- ? Avoided D & D 2015- ? REDD Result based payments MRV Pedroni, 2011

Global attention on REDD+ exists Global climate discussions > 4.7 billion U$ pledged for readiness phase > 37 developing countries are designing REDD+ strategies Several local REDD+ initiatives worldwide Commitment to action is mostly limited to the environmental stakeholders and is far from sufficient (Bliuc et al., 2015). The challenge is on how to accelerate commitment to REDD+ action outside the environmental sector.

Can political support and commitment to REDD+ be increased ….. by providing financial incentives? by finding complementarities with biodiversity conservation efforts? by ensuring other social and environmental co-benefits? by aligning it with local priorities and development goals? I also don’t want to go deep on details about expectations on the mechanism. I also believe you al know about this expectations. However, I have to recognise that I still hesitate about reasons and factors explaining the interest of developing countries and local communities in REDD+. If there is a real interest on REDD+?, is this interest explaining by financial benefits (?) At national level: is it explaining by complementarities with national priorities such as biodiversity and governance (?). At community level: is it explained by its potential contributions to local’s priorities (?)

The case for integrating forest carbon-storage and peacebuilding Several REDD+ countries are experiencing (or emerging) from conflict. related to unclear land tenure regimes and unbalanced land-use competitions Interactions between REDD+ and peacebuilding policies have not yet been considered at any scale. Relationships between forest carbon-biomass and armed-conflicts remain unclear.

REDD+ and peacebuilding REDD+ and peacebuilding are similar: Provide livelihoods Build institutions and capacities Improve governance Safeguard community rights Consider land reforms and conservation strategies Co-delivery would occur if priority areas for REDD+ overlap with peacebuilding priorities.

Method and main findings

Case study Republic of Colombia A “megadiverse” country (Romero et al., 2007). Armed conflicts since the 1940’s (Ross, 2007). No deforestation by 2020. Peace agreement with guerrilla groups (FARC).

Research objective: Assess the potential for synergies between forest carbon storage and peacebuilding policies Synergies between carbon-storage and peacebuilding Correlations Patterns of spatial associations Impacts of armed-conflicts on forest-cover

Correlations between forest-carbon and armed-conflict variables Spearman’s ρ between carbon and conflict indicators Armed-actions Victims Coca National and subnational scales of analysis Municipal level was the unit of analysis (n=1120) . Correlations indicate geographical overlaps. The empirical adoption Model. The dependent variable is potential of adoption. As I mentioned before. REDD+ is not implemented in the study area. For that reason two criteria were defined to identify potential adopters: unwillingness to (1) cut forest to increase grassland; (2) look for land in other territories if deforestation were not allowed in the region. The first criteria is because deforestation have been regarded as the main direct cause of deforestation. The second analyze potential of leakage. Independent variables were defined based on adoption studies of sustainable practices performed worldwide. In some case we modify the effect reported in the literature based on our specific knowledge of the study area. The sing in the brackets represent the expected effect on adoption. For example it was expected that higuer number of economic dependents will influence negatively adoption. on

Patterns of spatial associations (Moran's I) Significant spatial associations. Show 4 types of associations High – High High – Low Low – High Low - Low

Patterns of spatial associations (Moran's I) Between carbon and armed-conflict indicators Armed actions Victims Coca

Patterns of spatial associations (Moran's I) Between forest cover changes and conflicts indicators Venues for battle HC - HAA Sources of high value natural resources. HC - HCOCA Hideouts HC - HV Spoils of war LC - HV Armed actions Victims Coca

Main findings Correlations and Moran’s I suggest potential for synergies Conflict-affected municipalities store more carbon and are at lower risk of deforestation. Spatial explicit analyses show 3 roles of forested/non forested areas in armed-groups’ military strategies Hideouts Spoils of war and Places to harvest resources to finance war Impact of armed-conflict on forest cover vary according to these roles. Policy integration between REDD+ and peacebuilding) might increase political support and commitment to action. But is restricted by REDD+ focus on avoided deforestation

(In review in Environmental Research Letters) SPATIAL ASSOCIATIONS BETWEEN CARBON IN WOODY BIOMASS AND CONFLICT-RELATED VARIABLES INDICATE POTENTIAL SYNERGIES BETWEEN FOREST CARBON-STORAGE AND PEACEBUILDING POLICIES Augusto Castro-Nunez a, b, c, *, Ole Mertz a, Chrystian C. Sosa c, aUniversity of Copenhagen b ONF International​ c International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) (In review in Environmental Research Letters)

"Violence is a social project - It has to be organized or opposed, accepted or rejected, by groups of human agents" Paul Richards Thanks!!!