Potential Sustainability of ISIS By Robert Strider

Introduction ISIS (Islamic State of Iraq and Syria) or ISIL (Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant), was founded in 1999 by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, a Jordanian radical, under the name Jama'at al-Tawhid wal-Jihad (The Organization of Monotheism and Jihad). They joined the al-Qaeda network in 2004 during the Iraq invasion. However, they were considered disorganized and overall a failed organization after al-Zarqawi’s death in 2006. In 2014, Abu Omar al-Baghdadi became the new leader of ISIL and carried out the Anbar Campaign, seizing the northern half of Iraq. In June 2014, he announced the beginning of a new caliphate.

Introduction Continued The idea for this project came from an idea I had for a dissertation project. It didn’t get accepted. The goal of that potential project was to determine whether ISIS can sustain itself on resources inside of the territory they control, though this project focuses solely on theoretical agricultural capabilities.

Methodology The most recent images of Mosul (the most prominent area currently controlled by ISIS) were retrieved from Earth Explorer, showing the city in September 2016. At the moment, I have attempted an Unsupervised Classification to identify agricultural areas in Mosul and the immediate region.

ISIS Sanctuary Map August 19, 2016 Black- ISIS controls through armed force or through local support. Red- Targets of attack that are not under ISIS control. Light Red- Areas capable of providing logistical or administrative support to ISIS due to lack of action.

Mosul (September 2016) Earth Explorer

Problems What, no ground-truthing?

But seriously, problems? 36 classes at minimum were required just to identify agricultural areas and miscellaneous vegetation. The computer had some difficulty differentiating some areas from the river. Agricultural areas are known, the crop types in those areas are not. The percentage of cash crops compared to that of food would affect the outcome.

Results From methods already tried Expected? Agricultural areas make up a significant portion of the settled area around Mosul (see next slide). I actually expect that, food-wise anyway, ISIS could actually supply themselves fairly well. The banks of the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers, which ISIS controls a sizeable portion of, is very agriculturally-focused due to the relative dryness of the surrounding areas.

Unsupervised Classification of Mosul Green pixels represent Agricultural areas and vegetation 36 classes In total, it covers 284,942 pixels

References Forrest, C. (2016, August 19). ISIS Sanctuary Map: August 19, 2016. In Institute for the Study of War. Retrieved December 6, 2016, from http://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/isis-sanctuary- map-august-19-2016 Harris, R. (2003). Remote sensing of agriculture change in Oman. International Journal Of Remote Sensing, 24(23), 4835-4852. Song, H., Yang, W., Bai, Y., & Xu, X. (2015). Unsupervised classification of polarimetric SAR imagery using large-scale spectral clustering with spatial constraints. International Journal Of Remote Sensing, 36(11), 2816-2830. doi:10.1080/01431161.2015.1043759 Woertz, E. (2014, October). How Long Will ISIS Last Economically. Notes Internacionals CIDOB, 98, 1-5.