Conflict with conjunctions: Metacognition and response times in the Linda problem Pavle Valerjev Marin Dujmović Department of psychology, University of Zadar Project: 4139

Dual process theories Two types of processing in decision making (Evans & Stanovich, 2013) Type 1 – intuitive, fast, autonomous, high capacity, low resource cost Type 2 – analytical, reflexive, slow, high resource cost Questions? What is the relationship between Type 1 and Type 2 processing Parallel? Type 1  Type 2? How are Type 2 processes initiated? Individual differences in analytical thinking, type of instruction, time on task (Evans et al., 2010; Stanovich & West, 2008)

Pennycook et al. (2015)

Metacognition Metacognitive knowledge & metacognitive processes Knowledge – strategies & mental processes involved Processes – monitoring processes  evaluation of accuracy & efficiency Subjective ratings of confidence & accuracy On most tasks people have little to no insight into objective accuracy (Shynkaruk & Thompson, 2006) Level of confidence  fluency, response times, total time on task (Thompson et al., 2011)

Metacognition Valerjev & Dujmović (2016) – Conditional reasoning Valerjev & Dujmović (2016) – Wason selection task Dujmović & Valerjev (2016) – Stereotypical base-rate task 1. No correlation between confidence ratings and objective accuracy 2. Extremely high confidence ratings 3. A strong negative correlation between response times and confidence ratings

Goals Within the theoretical framework given by Pennycook et al. (2015) Test whether different levels of conflict lead to differences in confidence ratings and response times 1. Higher levels of induced conflict would lead to slower responses 2. Higher levels of induced conflict + slower responses  Lower confidence ratings

Say hello to Linda... Tversky & Kahneman (1982) Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken, and very bright. She majored in philosophy. As a student, she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice, and also participated in anti-nuclear demonstrations. Which is more probable? 1. Linda is a bank teller 2. Linda is a bank teller and active in the feminist movement

Conjunction fallacy BANK TELLER FEMINIST BANK TELLER & FEMINIST

Conflict with conjunctions John is a lawyer in a prestigious law firm, and likes to spend his free time on the golf course. V1 1. Has an expensive car 2. Has an expensive car and is a workaholic V2 1. Is a workaholic 2. Is a workaholic and volunteers in the soup kitchen V3 1. Volunteers in the soup kitchen 2. Volunteers in the soup kitchen and writes poetry V4 2. Volunteers in the soup kitchen and he is a workaholic

Conflict with conjunctives V1 – High  High + High  conflict, the conjunction is more representative V2 – High  High + Low  no conflict, the single option is more representative V3 – Low  Low + Low  representativeness not a valid heuristic V4 – Low  Low + High  conflict, the conjunctive is more representative Predictions based on the model V1 – conflict – fast response & high confidence V2 – no conflict – fastest response & highest confidence V3 – representativeness can not be used – slowest responses and lowest confidence V4 – conflict – slower responses & lower confidence ratings than V1

Method & Materials Participants – N = 31 – undergraduate psychology students unfamiliar with Linda Constructed 20 Linda type stories Each item was presented in every version Rotated among participants Option order – in half of the items S + C, the other half C + S Designed and executed using E-Prime v2.0.10.356, on 5 identical PCs

Procedure FIXATION CROSS 500 ms STORY Until read WHICH IS MORE PROBABLE Until response CONFIDENCE RATING

Confidence ratings After each decision participants gave a confidence rating 50% - not confident at all, I was guessing 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% - completely confident

Results % of conjunction answeres

Results Response times (ms) F(3, 90) = 13.86, p<.01

Results Confidence ratings F(3, 90) = 13.55, p<.01

Results Item analysis  Are confidence ratings higher for items for which responses where faster? Correlations between response times and confidence ratings when items appear in: V1  r = -.50** V2  r = -.54** V3  r = -.79** V4  r = -.72** **p<.01 Confidence was significantly higher for items which had faster responses

To conclude Higher levels of induced conflict decrease confidence and increase response times Answers to items which were processed faster were rated with higher confidence There is now convergent evidence using different heuristics as target processes: Representativeness Confirmation bias Stereorypes It seems conflict detection is a key process for the initialization of Type 2 processes and for metacognitive judgements

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