Drones Warfare Hugh Gusterson George Washington University guster@gwu.edu For APS/GWU Short course April 22, 2017

What I’m going to talk about Drones 101 Why the military likes drones Targeting protocols The debate over civilian casualties Legal controversies What the future might hold

What I’m not going to talk about Have drone operators been in combat? Do they deserve medals? Why do they seem to have high rates of PTSD? Are they legitimate military targets driving home in Nevada?

Thumbnail history of the drone World War II target practice drones World War II kamikaze drones Lightning bug in Vietnam 1990s Yugoslavia wars GPS Satellite bandwidth US condemned Israel’s “targeted killings” until 9/11 Martin Indyk, “The United States government is very clearly on record as against targeted assassinations. . . . They are extrajudicial killings, and we do not support that.” (July 2001) First US drone strike October 7, 2001

Predator Wingspan 55 feet Length 27 feet Speed 135 mph Endurance 24-27 hours Altitude 25,000 feet Cost $4.5 million each 2 Hellfire missiles To be retired by July 2017

Reaper Wingspan 66 feet Length 36 feet Speed 230 mph Endurance 14-42 hours Altitude 50,000 feet Cost $20 million each Hellfire missiles, JDAMs, Paveway laser-guided bombs, Small Smart Weapons

Why the Military likes drones Persistent, flexible surveillance Cost Predator: $4.5 million Reaper: $20 million F-16: $47 million F-35: $157-355 million (http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/why-donald-trump-was-right-the-f-35s-costs-are-out-control-18826) Precision “They allow you to project power without projecting vulnerability” (General David Deptula)

But do drones recruit more insurgents than they kill?

It takes about 170 people to operate a drone

2014

Countries where US has based drones (controlled by U. S Countries where US has based drones (controlled by U.S. military or CIA*) Afghanistan * Burkina Faso Cameroon Chad Djibouti Ethiopia Italy Kuwait Mauritania Niger Pakistan* Philippines Qatar Saudi Arabia* Seychelles Somalia (JSOC) Tunisia Turkey UAE Uzbekistan*

2014 dronewars.net

There are two forms of U.S. drone strike Mixed drone war strikes In context of wider war Alongside other air assets In support of US ground troops Often directed by military ground controllers 25% air strikes in Afghanistan by drones 2015: 80% of all drone strikes have been in Iraq & Afghanistan Pure drone war strikes Yemen, Somalia, Pakistan, Philippines Standalone attacks out of blue In countries where US not declared to be at war Often under CIA direction

Countries the U.S. has attacked with drones Afghanistan Iraq Syria _______ Yemen Somalia Libya Philippines Pakistan All Muslim

Waziristan Size of Bahamas Population of 800,000 “Ungoverned”? Almost 400 drone strikes 1 every three days 2011-12 Use of local informants Hard for Westerners to access, but documented civilian casualties Reported mass social psychological symptoms: PTSD-like symptoms Paranoia about foreign spies Avoidance of funerals, weddings, political meetings

Targeting Protocols Personality strikes Signature strikes “We only authorize a particular operation against a specific individual if we have high confidence that the individual being targeted is indeed the terrorist we are pursuing” (John Brennan, quoted McClatchy News 4/9/13) Signature strikes “most individuals killed are not on a kill list, and the government does not know their names” (Micah Zenko, NYT 4/23/15) “Suspicious” behavior: e.g., Feb 2010 strike killed 23 civilians, including children, in Afghanistan Double-tap strikes

Personality strikes 41 cases of people named as killed in more than one drone strike May target cell phones, not people

Civilian Casualties? “For the past year there hasn’t been a single collateral death because of the exceptional proficiency, precision of the capabilities we’ve been able to develop.” (John Brennan, 2011, quoted NYT 8/11/11) “Before any strike is taken, there must be near-certainty that no civilians will be killed or injured – the highest standard we can set” (Barack Obama, National Defense University, 2013)

Estimates of civilian deaths from drone strikes in Pakistan (to 2013)

Problems Estimating Civilian Deaths Dangerous & inaccessible target areas Reliance on remote witnessing Reliance on third parties Combatants don’t wear uniforms US counts “military-age males” as insurgents What is an “insurgent”?

Legal Controversies: international Critiques only refer to “pure drone warfare” Drone strikes not authorized by UN Authorized by target countries? Special issues re Waziristan Self-defense against imminent threat? 1842 Carolina case: threat should be “instant, overwhelming, and leaving no choice of means, and no moment of deliberation.” Violate Geneva Conventions distinction between battlefield and civilian spaces? Double-tap strikes UN rapporteur Christof Heynes: “war crime and a violation of the right to life.”

Legal Controversies: domestic Does AUMF apply to strikes (on al Qaeda’s enemy!) in Yemen & Somalia? Six Americans killed by drone strikes Kemal Darwish Anwar al-Awlaki Samir Khan Abdulrahman al-Awlaki Jude Kenan Mohammad Warren Weinstein

Drone strikes and democracy Drone strikes circumvent War Powers Act “Moral hazard”

what the future holds Many more nations with drones Micro drones Smart drones Who’s responsible for war crimes? Drones used by police inside the U.S. Terrorist drones

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Viwwetf0gU

Laws to consider International convention banning autonomous smart drones Ban on double-tap strikes All footage and control communications recorded & available to international investigators Ban on drone strikes outside war zones Ban on lethal use of drones within US Better registration of store-bought drones

Thank-you!