Why Are There No Fixed-Rate Mortgages in Taiwan Yao-Min Chiang Department of Finance National Chengchi University August 28, 1998
Mortgage Instruments Fixed-rate mortgages (FRMs) Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) FRMs ARMs -------------------------------------------------- Borrowers bear Borrowers bear no interest rate risk all interest rate risk
Lenders Use FRMs and ARMs to Reveal Borrower Mobility
Borrowers Mortgage Choice Strategy The objective of a borrower is to maximize hie/her utility.
Pooling Equilibrium - All borrowers choose ARMs the condition for G4 to be the equilibrium outcome is: Given r0<E(r1), we have Given r0>E(r1), we have
Pooling Equilibrium - All borrowers choose ARMs A quadratic utility function is used to run the numerical analysis. Market Equilibrium
Borrowers' choice behavior change due to a change in borrowers' initial income
Borrowers' choice behavior change due to a change in borrowers' expectation about future income
Borrowers' choice behavior change due to a change in the interest rate volatility
Borrowers' choice behavior change due to a change in the initial interest rate
Borrowers' choice behavior change due to a change in the expectation about future interest rates
Borrowers' choice behavior change due to change in the ratio of expected future interest rate over expected future income
Prime lending rate in Taiwan (1960-1997)
Disposable income, housing price, and mortgage payment
Conclusion The tilt of income stream, plays a key role on borrower choice behavior. The slope of the yield curve, is the key factor affecting mortgage choice. Income and interest rates have an interaction on mortgage choice. Downward sloping of the term structure of interest rates, low interest rate volatility, combined with the expectation of higher future payment-to-income ratio are the reason causing there are only ARMs in Taiwan's mortgage market.
Pooling Equilibrium - All borrowers choose ARMs the condition for G4 to be the equilibrium outcome is: Given r0<E(r1), we have Given r0>E(r1), we have