Penn State Weather Camps

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Penn State Weather Camps Basic Weather Forecasting Guidelines Sat I - NWS - Radar - Radar sfc. map 1 - sfc. map 2 – sfc map 3

Basic Forecast Guidelines Deterministic Forecast precise/exact/no uncertainty provided Non-Deterministic Forecast uncertainty provided via a range or probability High: 82 Cloud: 8 Rain: Yes Deterministic or Non?

Basic Forecast Guidelines Weather Models … What are they? Name some …. NAM GFS ECMWF CMC

Basic Forecast Guidelines Weather Models … What’s under the hood? NAM GFS ECMWF CMC Mathematical Equations …. “Perfectly express the physical processes of the atmosphere”

Basic Forecast Guidelines Weather Models … What do we “feed” them? Run 2 times a day (12z/00z) NAM GFS ECMWF CMC

10 7 6 9 5 8 11 3 2 1 4

Basic Forecast Guidelines Weather Models … What do we “feed” them? (THE INPUT = real observations) Run 2 times a day (12z/00z) NAM GFS ECMWF CMC Output = Forecast

Basic Forecast Guidelines What causes rain? Need clouds! Will any ole cloud do? Moisture supply Bodies of water – Moisture content of air Upward motion: How does this affect clouds/precip.? Mechanisms for “lift” Fronts – Topography – Low Pressure – Jet stream dist. (In) stability: Warm down low … cold up high!