Calculating Programme Financial Scenarios The FarmTree®Tool turns farm projections into basin scenarios Agroforestry needs Cash Flow Planning => Farm & Landscape CFP Water Productivity Master Class 3: From Farms to Basins MetaMeta, Wageningen, 7 June, 2017 Frank van Schoubroeck, frankvanschoubroeck@govga.org

Presentation Outline: from farm to basin planning The FarmTree®Tool – and possible synergy with basin planning Actor Activity Outcome Project designers define investments in landscape components Landscape Planning Cash flow & economic indicators Environmental & social indicators Farmer / entrepreneurs prepare cash flow plans Farm Planning Farm enterprise cash flow and Human Resource planning Farmers weigh management options Plot Planning Agronomic & economic performance at plot level Local Data Pool Water models? Local Experts gather data Tree models Crop models Inputs models HR models

1. Three Research Questions 1 - How do we capture cash flows at farm level? 2 - How do we capture cash flows at landscape level? 3 - How do large numbers of farmers get teased into farm planning?

=> The FarmTree®Tool can help 2 Question 1 - How do we capture cash flows at farm level? Investments & writing-off; short & long cycles Varying water availability & uses Price fluctuations Mix of crop, tree and animal production => The FarmTree®Tool can help

………………………………………………………….. 2 FarmTree®Tool - Model ………………………………………………………….. Model ..………... Results Filter ... Input General data; individual choices & risks => Model => indicators over 5-50 years Output

3 – Example Developing Farm Scenarios: ICRAF Project - to introduce Rainwater Harvesting in Kenya

3a Baseline (imaginary) 1 ha subsistence farm: 0.7 ha maize + NPK 0.3 ha beans Experienced farmer Farm Gate Price @75% of wholesale price 4 full-time labour @KES 500/day

3a Baseline Result Farm production is steady-state at KES 1.8 m; result at KES 0.8 m Net Present Value KES 8m See a summary graph (20Y):

3b Baseline + Farm Pond 1 ha Farm Pond Enterprise with inputs: Investment: 250m3 pond; pump, NPK, Pest Control allows for: 0.3 ha tomato, onion and kayes 0.6 ha trees Melia+Grevillea (maize intercrop) 10 bee hives + 200 chickens Unexperienced farmer (learning in 4 y) 4 full-time labour @KES 500/day Farm gate price @75% of wholesale market price); 15% interest

3b Baseline + Farm Pond: Result Lowest cash flow point is KES -730k; payback Year 3 Annual result at KES 4 m (Y6) Net Present Value KES 24k (setup); KES 38k (Y5) Internal Rate of Return 53% (Y5); 76% (Y10) See a summary graph (20Y) :

3b Non-monetary Indicator Projection Example: Carbon flow over 50 years. We can also project: production of Calories, Vit A/C, Protein; shade, erosion, water use, etc.

4a Senegal, youth farmer training, December 2015 Khar Ndiaye: “The FarmTree®Tool shows that our agriculture is different from that of our parents” March, 2017: the French Embassey declares trainee Idrissa Traore, Bakel, as “best young entrepreneur” in Senegal But what about … basin level planning? http://www.dakaractu.com/Promotion-de-l-economie-sociale-et-solidaire-Trois-jeunes-entrepreneurs-senegalais-primes-par-l-Ambassade-de-France_a128964.html

2 - How do we capture cash flows at basin level? 6a From farm to basin … 2 - How do we capture cash flows at basin level?

Wood lots Food Grain Fields Horticulture Sylvo-pastoralism 6b Water Mgmt Projects address various landscape elements with short and longer term results Wood lots Food Grain Fields Horticulture Sylvo-pastoralism

=> Black figures from Y6 onwards 6c Example: 125,000 ha Tanzania Adaptation Project => Financial Projection Protocol Project Base Scenario => Black figures from Y6 onwards

Results of Interventions 6c Project Financial Projection Protocol Project Base Scenario => Accounting Structure Interventions Risks Baseline Investments Project Results Economic Indicators Results of Interventions Year 1-15

3 - How do large numbers of farmers get access to planning? 6d Project Financial Projection Protocol Scenario: Agriculture prices -50% => red figures even after 15 years 3 - How do large numbers of farmers get access to planning?

7. Our Ambition: Farmers explore management options through a Farm Game

Geodata bring in real limitation and uncertainty: “GeoFarmGame” for strategizing water investments? Farm Game Tree, Crop, Inputs Data Market Data Geo-Data stream Landscape Multiple Farm Scenarios Historical Geo-Data Projecting Scenarios Carrying out ‘best bet’ Farming Practice Monitoring & Evaluation vis-à-vis projection Imagining farming scenarios Farm-Level Learning Cycle Carrying out ‘best bet’ Landscape Investment Imagining Landscape scenarios Landscape- Level Learning Cycle Historical +

The FarmTreeServices™ Team Frank van Schoubroeck, The Netherlands frankvanschoubroeck@govga.org Mike Kothuis, The Netherlands - Gaming dat@regel-ik!.nl Adamou Salissou, Niger/west-Africa, djikasalissou@yahoo.fr Peter Paap, The Netherlands peterpaap@hotmail.com Judith Sinja, Kenya judithsinja@yahoo.co.uk