Key activities and results 2016 workplan 2017 Katarina Mareckova, Robert Wankmueller, Melanie Tista, Sabine Schindlbacher, EMEP Bureau meeting 21 March 2017 GENÈVE

CEIP Key activities 2016/2017 Maintenance and improvement of EMEP emission data base (WebDab) and CEIP website Review of inventory data submitted by Parties Emission data sets for modellers Support to UNECE secretariat and IC (compliance issues, adjustment) Support to Parties (on line, add hoc, reporting, review ) (BC reporting ; Uncertainties) Cooperation with other centres Publication of results (review, status reports, joint reports …) “Emerging Issues “ (new gridding, PM EFs, EMEP/EEA inventory guidebook )

WebDab, Website - Interaction with Parties, EMEP bodies, Public, … WebDab / downloadable; all reported data and data used in models Interactive data viewer Reporting instructions Status of reporting Review guidance Review findings and results Guidance on gridding Adjustment guidance and adjustments review

Review of submitted data 2016/2017 Basic checks (stage 1 and stage 2) all Parties , Annual Review reprot In depth review S3 (10 countries) All Results published on web http://www.ceip.at/review_results/review_results_2016/ http://www.ceip.at/review_results/stage3_country_reports/ http://www.ceip.at/ms/ceip_home1/ceip_home/review_results/review_reports/ http://www.ceip.at/ms/data_viewers/official_tableau/ Persisting challenges Significant recalculations (>10%, resp >30%) Not complete inventories Transparency - documentation Activity data, format of activity data - further standardisation to be considered Inconsistencies across diverse reporting obligations Priorities within countries => Review requires significant involvement of experts i.e. is resource demanding

Status of reporting 2002-2017 as of 16 March 2017 15 resubmissions 12 MS

Stage 3 review - Long-term 2013 - 2018 37 Parties reviewed 2013-2016 First review round 2008-2012; 44 countries reviewed http://www.ceip.at/ review_results/stage3_country_reports/

Roster of review experts available for S3 + adjustment reviews 96 (41) Reviewers in the EMEP roster 23 Parties

Stage 3 Review 2017 Time schedule 2017 Preparatory phase – first questions to Parties - May Meeting 19-23 June 2017 in Copenhagen Finalisation and publication of reports before EB meeting In-Depth review of 1o Parties (6 Parties no IIR, 4 Parties no data ) Review o EU Inventory 2 teams with 10 reviewers each (ideally) + 1-3 reviewers for adjustment review 40 reviewers invited, 17 confirmed, 20 not available, 3 pending, only 1 transport expert so far To the extent possible test revised Review Guidelines (calculate Technical corrections) /guidance for reviewers to be developed Risk – number of TC proposed for reviewed countries Inventory Review under NEC Directive. To be considered: Harmonisation of approaches (to the extent possible) exchange of information on findings Coordination of long term planning Review Partly overlapping with NECD review 2017 (Austria, Malta)

Gridded data main pollutants and PM 2016 (SOx, NOx, CO, NMVOC, NH3, PM2.5, PM10 and PMcoarse) For 2016 it was agreed with the modellers to perform gap-filling and gridding for the year 2014 in 50x50 km² (PS) resolution on SNAP 10 sector level and in addition in 0.1° x 0.1° longitude/latitude resolution on GNFR sector level. For the distribution of the 50x50 km² SNAP grid of SOx, NOx, CO, NMVOC, NH3, PM2.5, PM10 and PMcoarse for 2014 base grid data, which was calculated last year based on new reported gridded data, was used. The 0.1° x 0.1° GNFR grid of SOx, NOx, CO, NMVOC, NH3, PM2.5, PM10 and PMcoarse for 2014 were gridded based on the gridding system developed by CEIP, which is using EDGAR data , upgraded by point source information available under E-PRTR, for the distribution in areas where no reported gridded data in the 0.1° x 0.1° resolution is available. Reported Data in new resolution : except Switzerland (where reported gridded data in the 0.1° x 0.1° resolution is available for the whole time series from 1980 to 2014), United Kingdom (where reported gridded data in 0.1° x 0.1° resolution is available for 2010) as well as Finland and Poland (where reported gridded data in 0.1° x 0.1° resolution is available for 2014).

Gridded data (0,1x0,1 long /lat) 2017 /2018 – challenges Deadline for reporting; 1 May - gridded data required beginning June Update of historical data; most Parties plan to report only 2015 data in new resolution EMEP East : - progress in completeness of inventory data, but very limited info on spatial resolution / so far missing data for Russia and Belarus Plan 2017 / Main pollutants and PM : 2015 gridded data in new resolution end beginning June , update of selected historical data (2000,2005,2010) in Q3/Q4 of 2017 2015 gridded data in 50x50grid, fro comparison, simplified approach based on updated National totals To the extent possible improve spatial resolution were no reported data

Gridded data of HMs (and POPs) Joint CEIP/MSC-E technical report on emission inventory improvement for HMs modeling - emissions Hg CENTRE ON EMISSION INVENTORIES AND PROJECTIONS : K.Mareckova, M.Tista, R.Wankmüller, S.Schindlbacher METEOROLOGICAL SYNTHESIZING CENTRE – EAST : O.Travnikov, I.Ilyin, O.Rozovskaya

HM - Correlation with PM, population, GDP

Conclusions, recommendations HMs The quality of the data submissions vary greatly between different countries. The reasons for missing data are often not very transparent but for the review of submitted data the analysis of the submissions can help to evaluate the quality and credibility of the data, e.g. for replacement decisions. Key category distribution is diverse between the countries. To calculate emissions using key category distribution and activity data would be very resource demanding. Calculations are very complex due to the gathering of activity data, the calculations itself and the grossing up of emissions. Further, results would contain high uncertainties. Therefore this method will not be implemented for future gap filling. Strong relationships seem to exist between emissions of particulate matter and heavy metals. Especially for mercury, but also for cadmium and lead, the correlation with particulate matter (primarily: PM10) can be used to calculate emissions when particulate matter emission data are available. Strong relationships seem to exist as well between emissions of heavy metals (especially mercury) and population or GDP data. Especially population data (rather than GDP data) could be used as indicator for e.g. extrapolation of previous reported emission data. Additional and updated data sources, estimates and projections will be searched to fill gaps and compare data. Cooperation with other organisations dealing with air pollution data will be enhanced. The quality of the data will increase the best, when countries frequently report complete emission inventories . 2017 plan on HMs and POPs: 50x 50 gridded data in April, new resolution data 2nd half of 2017 Joint report with MSC/E on POPs

“Emerging issues 2016” Improvement of 0,1x0,1 long/lat gridding system Questionnaire on PM EFs was distributed to Parties and results are partly evaluated and were presented to EMEP and will be to TFEIP in Zagreb Chapter for EMEP/EEA inventory guidebook -Tier 1 methodology for small-scale combustion has been revised to provide a methodology which is specific to appliance & biomass types. After presented to TFEIP meeting chapter will be finalized and included in EMEP/EEA inventory Guidebook 2016.

Assessment of PM emission factors Cooperation with Aether The questionnaire was sent to 44 national inventory compilers/EMEP national contact points for 41 countries on 16th November 2016. Responses were received by 21 countries in time for inclusion in assessment (15th December 2016). Parties were asked to provide details of the PM10 emission factor for 38 categories of their emissions inventory: [1A1 by fuel type (4) , 1A1b (1) , 1A3 by vehicle and fuel type (14), 1A4 (domestic/residential) by fuel type (4).\, 1A4 non-road mobile machinery by fuel type (3) , 1B by fuel type (2) , 2 – Solvent and product use (4) , 3 – Agriculture (3), 5 – Waste (3)] Improve Guidebook and COPERT / 54%

Assessment of PM emission factors Cooperation with Aether Key messages that can be drawn from the the questionnaire: Parties use different literature for PM EFs in their inventories, with different coverage of filterable/condensable PM. However, within a single source category, the literature that is used does not often vary substantially across the individual sources. Parties often do not know the coverage of filterable/condensable PM when using country specific emission factors; The EMEP/EEA Guidebook is often the most frequently cited source of PM emission factor. From the findings, it is reasonable to conclude that PM emissions reported by Parties to the LRTAP Convention cannot be assumed to be directly comparable. It is evident that the Guidebook is a common source of emission factors. It would be judicious to conduct a review of the emission factors within the Guidebook, and attempt to determine their coverage of filterable/condensable PM. The data collected from the questionnaire will be retained for further use. Some Parties which did not manage to respond to the questionnaire in time for inclusion in this report indicated that they plan to do so at a later date.

(Draft) Small combustion -Tier 1 Cooperation with TNO and Italy The chapter covers the methods and data needed to estimate stationary combustion emissions under NFR sectors: 1.A.4.a.i — Commercial/institutional; 1.A.4.b.i — Residential; 1.A.4.c.i — Agriculture/forestry; and 1.A.5.a — Other (stationary combustion). The chapter will be presented to TFEIP (Zagreb May 2017) and finalized afterwards

Compliance and Adjustment Detailed information on an annual basis is provided to the IC on how the Parties to the Protocols fulfil their reporting obligations. CEIP assessed also the compliance/non compliance of Parties to the Protocols and provided periodically updates of the corresponding trend and overview tables to the UNECE secretariat in March, May, June and November 2016. http://www.ceip.at/status_reporting/2017_submissions/ Adjustment CEIP Initial checks of submitted adjustment applications Processing and checks of approved adjustments Support to Parties , reviewers and secretariat Adjustment Status report with recommendations to EMEP /SB

Compliance and Adjustment Detailed information on an annual basis is provided to the IC on how the Parties to the Protocols fulfil their reporting obligations. CEIP assessed also the compliance/non compliance of Parties to the Protocols and provided periodically updates of the corresponding trend and overview tables to the UNECE secretariat in March, May, June and November 2016. http://www.ceip.at/status_reporting/2017_submissions/ Adjustment review CEIP Initial checks of submitted adjustment applications Processing and checks of approved adjustments Support to Parties , reviewers and secretariat Adjustment Status report with recommendations to EMEP /SB

Information on CEIP website http://www.ceip.at/adjustments_gp

Adjustment submissions 2017 28 adjustments to be checked

Adjustment review plan 2017(2) 1 country NEW application (ES/Agro), 7 countries approved Adjustments Time schedule: Initial checks Feb/March Desk review: (April) May – June Coordinating meeting: 20 – 24 June Copenhagen (optional) Finalization of country report: July – August Status report to EMEP SB: beginning July Publication of recommendations: August/September Adoption of ERT recommendations: Sept (EMEP SB meeting) CEIP: assessment of formal criteria (in cooperation with TFEIP and secretariat) website update management and technical support to reviewers and Parties Status report for EMEP SB Final edit and publication of country reports

Publications Review of adjustment applications (CE/EB.AIR/GE.1/2016/10−ECE/EB.AIR/WG.1/2016/18) Present state of emission data, review process and development of a new gridding system (CE/EB.AIR/GE.1/2016/10−ECE/EB.AIR/WG.1/2016/18 ) CEIP progress report 2016 (covers items 1.1.1.21, 1.1.2.1-1.1.2.7, 1.1.7, 1.3.1, 1.4.1 - 1.4.4 , 1.7.1. , 3.1 and emerging issues of EMEP work plan 2016-2017 ) Inventory review 2016, EEA/CEIP Technical report 01/2016 Emission Annex in Air pollution trends in the EMEP region between 1990 and 2012” EMEP-CCC report 1/2016 Emission chapter in : "Transboundary particulate matter, photo-oxidants, acidifying and eutrophying components" Joint MSC-W & CCC & CEIP Report, Status report 2016

CEIP – PLAN 2017 Key activities Emerging issues Re-gridding of historical data in NEW resolution Improvement of spatial distribution EMEP east: Gap filling and gridding of inventories in NEW resolution Assessment of reported data : BC Further development of semi-automated gap filing systems Review &Technical report Inventory review 2017 (in cooperation with EEA); Joint report with MSC-e on POPs Status of reporting in 2017 Report for EMEP SB Compliance, Status of adjustment review Cooperation with CIAM, JRC (EDGAR), GMES - MACC, FAIRMODE , EC,… Contribution to joint EMEP Status report Website improvement + update : www.ceip.at