2nd Task of Your Project „All you have to decide, is what to do with the time that is given to you.“ J.R.R. Tollkin Prof. Dr. Christian Bleis 1 Interaktionskompetenz

Mechanism of Planning (II) Next (2nd) Step Mechanism of Planning (II) Draw a flow chart and examine the dependencies of the tasks (PERT) Estimate work packages (people, time (GANTT) etc.) Create initial schedule, Define the monitoring indicators ( be SMART), Prof. Dr. Christian Bleis 2 Interaktionskompetenz

Why? Prof. Dr. Christian Bleis 3 Interaktionskompetenz

Five good bets to make your project a story of success! 1. A clear project work plan is essential for balancing time, cost, and quality. Prof. Dr. Christian Bleis 4 Interaktionskompetenz

Project Tool (2) PERT Interaktionskompetenz Prof. Dr. Christian Bleis 5 Interaktionskompetenz

PERT (Project Evaluation and Review Technique) The PERT method is a technique that allows you to manage the scheduling of a project. The PERT method is a technique that allows you to manage the scheduling of a project. The PERT method consists of graphically representing a network of tasks, which, when placed in a chain, can lead to the achievement of the objectives of a project. It was designed by the US navy to allow for coordination of the work of several thousand persons to build missiles with POLARIS nuclear warheads. The PERT method includes the following at the preliminary stage: Precise breakdown of the project into tasks; Estimation of the duration of each task; The appointment of a project manager in charge of assuring monitoring of the project, reporting, if necessary, and making decisions in the event of deviations from projections. Prof. Dr. Christian Bleis 6 Interaktionskompetenz

PERT (Project Evaluation and Review Technique) The PERT method is a technique that allows you to manage the scheduling of a project. The PERT method is a technique that allows you to manage the scheduling of a project. The PERT method consists of graphically representing a network of tasks, which, when placed in a chain, can lead to the achievement of the objectives of a project. It was designed by the US navy to allow for coordination of the work of several thousand persons to build missiles with POLARIS nuclear warheads. The PERT method includes the following at the preliminary stage: Precise breakdown of the project into tasks; Estimation of the duration of each task; The appointment of a project manager in charge of assuring monitoring of the project, reporting, if necessary, and making decisions in the event of deviations from projections. Prof. Dr. Christian Bleis 7 Interaktionskompetenz

PERT (Project Evaluation and Review Technique) The PERT method is a technique that allows you to manage the scheduling of a project. The PERT method consists of graphically representing a network of tasks, which, when placed in a chain, can lead to the achievement of the objectives of a project. The PERT method is a technique that allows you to manage the scheduling of a project. The PERT method consists of graphically representing a network of tasks, which, when placed in a chain, can lead to the achievement of the objectives of a project. It was designed by the US navy to allow for coordination of the work of several thousand persons to build missiles with POLARIS nuclear warheads. The PERT method includes the following at the preliminary stage: Precise breakdown of the project into tasks; Estimation of the duration of each task; The appointment of a project manager in charge of assuring monitoring of the project, reporting, if necessary, and making decisions in the event of deviations from projections. Prof. Dr. Christian Bleis 8 Interaktionskompetenz

Tasks represented by an arrow (). PERT-Elements (tasks) Tasks represented by an arrow (). A code and a duration are assigned to each task. However, the length of the arrow is independent of the duration. The PERT method is a technique that allows you to manage the scheduling of a project. The PERT method consists of graphically representing a network of tasks, which, when placed in a chain, can lead to the achievement of the objectives of a project. It was designed by the US navy to allow for coordination of the work of several thousand persons to build missiles with POLARIS nuclear warheads. The PERT method includes the following at the preliminary stage: Precise breakdown of the project into tasks; Estimation of the duration of each task; The appointment of a project manager in charge of assuring monitoring of the project, reporting, if necessary, and making decisions in the event of deviations from projections. Prof. Dr. Christian Bleis 9 Interaktionskompetenz

Stage i.e. the beginning and end of a task. PERT-Elements (stages, milestones) Stage i.e. the beginning and end of a task. Each task has a start and end stage. (With the exception of the initial and final stages, each end stage is the beginning stage of the next task.) The stages are generally numbered and (normally) represented by a . The PERT method is a technique that allows you to manage the scheduling of a project. The PERT method consists of graphically representing a network of tasks, which, when placed in a chain, can lead to the achievement of the objectives of a project. It was designed by the US navy to allow for coordination of the work of several thousand persons to build missiles with POLARIS nuclear warheads. The PERT method includes the following at the preliminary stage: Precise breakdown of the project into tasks; Estimation of the duration of each task; The appointment of a project manager in charge of assuring monitoring of the project, reporting, if necessary, and making decisions in the event of deviations from projections. Prof. Dr. Christian Bleis 10 Interaktionskompetenz

How to read a PERT-Diagram The first draft of a PERT chart will number its events (stages, milestones) sequentially in 10s (10, 20, 30, etc.) (to allow the later insertion of additional events.) Prof. Dr. Christian Bleis 11 Interaktionskompetenz

How to read a PERT-Diagram The first draft of a PERT chart will number its events (stages, milestones) sequentially in 10s (10, 20, 30, etc.) (to allow the later insertion of additional events.) Two consecutive events in a PERT chart are linked by activities, (which are conventionally represented as arrows in the diagram above.) Prof. Dr. Christian Bleis 12 Interaktionskompetenz

How to read a PERT-Diagram The first draft of a PERT chart will number its events (stages, milestones) sequentially in 10s (10, 20, 30, etc.) (to allow the later insertion of additional events.) Two consecutive events in a PERT chart are linked by activities, (which are conventionally represented as arrows in the diagram above.) The events are presented in a logical sequence and no activity can commence until its immediately preceding event is completed. Prof. Dr. Christian Bleis 13 Interaktionskompetenz

4 Steps to create a PERT-Diagram PERT planning involves the following steps: Identify the specific activities and milestones. Determine the proper sequence of the activities. Construct a network diagram. Estimate the time required for each activity. Prof. Dr. Christian Bleis 14 Interaktionskompetenz

Step 1: Identify Activities and Milestones 4 Steps to create a PERT-Diagram Step 1: Identify Activities and Milestones The activities are the tasks required to complete the project. The milestones are the events marking the beginning and end of one or more activities. (It is helpful to list the tasks in a table that in later steps can be expanded to include information on sequence and duration.) Prof. Dr. Christian Bleis 15 Interaktionskompetenz

Step 2: Determine Activity Sequence 4 Steps to create a PERT-Diagram Step 2: Determine Activity Sequence This step may be combined with the activity identification step since the activity sequence is evident for some tasks. Other tasks may require more analysis to determine the exact order in which they must be performed. Prof. Dr. Christian Bleis 16 Interaktionskompetenz

Step 3: Construct the Network Diagram 4 Steps to create a PERT-Diagram Step 3: Construct the Network Diagram Using the activity sequence information, a network diagram can be drawn showing the sequence of the serial and parallel activities. For the original activity-on-arc model, the activities are depicted by arrowed lines and milestones are depicted by circles or "bubbles". If done manually, several drafts may be required to correctly portray the relationships among activities. Software packages simplify this step by automatically converting tabular activity information into a network diagram. Prof. Dr. Christian Bleis 17 Interaktionskompetenz

Step 4: Estimate Activity Times 4 Steps to create a PERT-Diagram Step 4: Estimate Activity Times Weeks are a commonly used unit of time for activity completion, but any consistent unit of time can be used. BUT … how do I estimate the time? Prof. Dr. Christian Bleis 18 Interaktionskompetenz

PERT Step 4.1 A distinguishing feature of PERT is its ability to deal with uncertainty in activity completion times. For each activity, the model usually includes three time estimates: So: Estimate three time spans. Pessimistic time is the amount of time assuming everything goes wrong. Most likely is the amount of time it will probably take to finish the task. Optimistic time is the amount of time it will take assuming everything goes as planned. Prof. Dr. Christian Bleis Interaktionskompetenz

PERT Step 4.2 PERT is determined by adding 4 times the most likely time and adding the pessimistic and optimistic time, multiplying the numbers. Then dividing by 6. For example: Pessimistic + 4 x Most Likely + Optimistic / 6. Prof. Dr. Christian Bleis Interaktionskompetenz

Step 4.3 PERT Example: How long will it take to paint your kitchen? Pessimistic: 5 days Most Likely: 3 days Optimistic: 2 days 5 + 4 x 3 + 2 / 6  5 + 12 + 2 / 6  19 / 6  approximatley 3 days Prof. Dr. Christian Bleis Interaktionskompetenz

An Example (recruitment of a new person to fill a vacant post) Below is a work breakdown structure for the recruitment of a new person to fill a vacant post. Prof. Dr. Christian Bleis 22 Interaktionskompetenz

An Example (recruitment of a new person to fill a vacant post) Below is the PERT chart of the WBS shown above after network analysis has been applied. Prof. Dr. Christian Bleis 23 Interaktionskompetenz

Benefits + Limitations of PERT Prof. Dr. Christian Bleis 24 Interaktionskompetenz

PERT is useful because it provides the following information: Benefits of PERT PERT is useful because it provides the following information: Expected project completion time. Activity start and end dates. Probability of completion before a specified date. The critical path activities that directly impact the completion time. The activities that have slack time and that can lend resources to critical path activities. Prof. Dr. Christian Bleis Interaktionskompetenz

The following are some of PERT's weaknesses : Limitations of PERT The following are some of PERT's weaknesses : The activity time estimates are somewhat subjective and depend on judgement. PERT assumes a beta distribution for these time estimates, but the actual distribution may be different. PERT assumes that the probability distribution of the project completion time is the same as the that of the critical path. Because other paths can become the critical path if their associated activities are delayed, PERT consistently underestimates the expected project completion time. The activity time estimates are somewhat subjective and depend on judgement. In cases where there is little experience in performing an activity, the numbers may be only a guess. In other cases, if the person or group performing the activity estimates the time there may be bias in the estimate. Even if the activity times are well-estimated, PERT assumes a beta distribution for these time estimates, but the actual distribution may be different. Even if the beta distribution assumption holds, PERT assumes that the probability distribution of the project completion time is the same as the that of the critical path. Because other paths can become the critical path if their associated activities are delayed, PERT consistently underestimates the expected project completion time. The underestimation of the project completion time due to alternate paths becoming critical is perhaps the most serious of these issues. To overcome this limitation, Monte Carlo simulations can be performed on the network to eliminate this optimistic bias in the expected project completion time. Prof. Dr. Christian Bleis Interaktionskompetenz