19 May 2017 Bill Bialkowski, M.A.Sc. P.Eng. Great lakes Routing Model with St Clair River Variable Conveyance IAGLR 2017 Session 36 19 May 2017 Bill Bialkowski, M.A.Sc. P.Eng.

Introduction As an Electrical Engineer I never expected to speak at IAGLR. 2003: I retired as a control engineer after 50 years of applying aerospace feedback control algorithms to hydraulic operations in the P&P industry 2003: I bought a cottage on Georgian Bay. Water levels were very low and wetlands were drying up. Mary Muter of GBA asked me to help understand the cause of LW 2004 Early modeling triggered the Baird Report Many events followed & I have continued since “In early 2013, the International Joint Commission provided more recommendations to the U.S. and Canadian governments on how to improve management of water levels on the upper Great Lakes. First, the IJC recommended that no action be taken by governments to promote full regulation of Lakes Michigan-Huron outflows through construction of extensive locks and dams in the St. Clair River. This solution could cost up to $20 billion and would have profound adverse effects on the environment and economy of the region. The IJC recommended that a system-wide Adaptive Management Program be implemented to promote resiliency across the region in face of significant climate change. I believe Commissioner Gordon Walker of the IJC will talk about this program in a few moments. The IJC has already modified its regulation plan for Lake Superior to better stabilize flows in the St. Marys River month to month. The IJC also recommended that work begin to assess how engineering structures could be installed in the St. Clair River to restore up to 10 inches of water levels on the upstream lakes. Another recommendation of the IJC was to periodically monitor changes in the St. Clair River conveyance, including conducting bathymetric surveys on a frequent basis. Mr. John Allis of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers will speak to this recommendation in a few minutes. Another significant recommendation by the IJC was for the governments should improve the monitoring and modeling of hydrologic and meteorologic conditions on the upper Great Lakes, including improving the prediction of evaporation rates. There have been significant improvements in this area already.”

Chronology 2004: Baird Report: erosion in the St. Clair River; USACE upper lakes flow data is incorrect 2007: IUGLS on St. Clair River erosion. Conclusion: Yes erosion, But less than Baird claim. Hence DO NOTHING 2009: At a IUGLS public meeting I challenged accuracy of the IUGLS models and requested a copy of the official discharge equations and a full data set of levels and flows. Request granted. David Fay (CCGLBHH hydraulics Eng) supplied the equations Only the flow data up to 1986 arrived, - all the rest under revision 2009: David Fay to study re-assess SCR & DR conveyance 2010: USACE SCR conveyance increase revised flows available 2011 Model built in VisSim; Kalman Filter variable conveyance 2013: re-wrote model to run on MS Excel 2013: IJC recommends flexible SCR structures, off for HW 2014: USACE revised NBS’s again– re-calibrate by hand 2017: Model at IAGLR May 2017 “In early 2013, the International Joint Commission provided more recommendations to the U.S. and Canadian governments on how to improve management of water levels on the upper Great Lakes. First, the IJC recommended that no action be taken by governments to promote full regulation of Lakes Michigan-Huron outflows through construction of extensive locks and dams in the St. Clair River. This solution could cost up to $20 billion and would have profound adverse effects on the environment and economy of the region. The IJC recommended that a system-wide Adaptive Management Program be implemented to promote resiliency across the region in face of significant climate change. I believe Commissioner Gordon Walker of the IJC will talk about this program in a few moments. The IJC has already modified its regulation plan for Lake Superior to better stabilize flows in the St. Marys River month to month. The IJC also recommended that work begin to assess how engineering structures could be installed in the St. Clair River to restore up to 10 inches of water levels on the upstream lakes. Another recommendation of the IJC was to periodically monitor changes in the St. Clair River conveyance, including conducting bathymetric surveys on a frequent basis. Mr. John Allis of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers will speak to this recommendation in a few minutes. Another significant recommendation by the IJC was for the governments should improve the monitoring and modeling of hydrologic and meteorologic conditions on the upper Great Lakes, including improving the prediction of evaporation rates. There have been significant improvements in this area already.”

Map “In early 2013, the International Joint Commission provided more recommendations to the U.S. and Canadian governments on how to improve management of water levels on the upper Great Lakes. First, the IJC recommended that no action be taken by governments to promote full regulation of Lakes Michigan-Huron outflows through construction of extensive locks and dams in the St. Clair River. This solution could cost up to $20 billion and would have profound adverse effects on the environment and economy of the region. The IJC recommended that a system-wide Adaptive Management Program be implemented to promote resiliency across the region in face of significant climate change. I believe Commissioner Gordon Walker of the IJC will talk about this program in a few moments. The IJC has already modified its regulation plan for Lake Superior to better stabilize flows in the St. Marys River month to month. The IJC also recommended that work begin to assess how engineering structures could be installed in the St. Clair River to restore up to 10 inches of water levels on the upstream lakes. Another recommendation of the IJC was to periodically monitor changes in the St. Clair River conveyance, including conducting bathymetric surveys on a frequent basis. Mr. John Allis of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers will speak to this recommendation in a few minutes. Another significant recommendation by the IJC was for the governments should improve the monitoring and modeling of hydrologic and meteorologic conditions on the upper Great Lakes, including improving the prediction of evaporation rates. There have been significant improvements in this area already.”

Core Model Inputs & Outputs Inputs: NBSMH,NBSSC,NBSER,QSMR,QLLOG,Qchicago,Qwelland,QNYSBC monthly values from Jan 1900 to today Outputs: ZMH, ZSC, ZER, QSCR, QDR, QNR Given monthly inputs & Dec 1899 values for ZMH, ZSC and ZER THEN Model calculates all monthly outputs: 1900 to today Initial model used Runga-Kutta 4 numerical integration at a step size of 12 hours over 100 years New model uses difference equations running on MS Excel once per month over 100+ years “In early 2013, the International Joint Commission provided more recommendations to the U.S. and Canadian governments on how to improve management of water levels on the upper Great Lakes. First, the IJC recommended that no action be taken by governments to promote full regulation of Lakes Michigan-Huron outflows through construction of extensive locks and dams in the St. Clair River. This solution could cost up to $20 billion and would have profound adverse effects on the environment and economy of the region. The IJC recommended that a system-wide Adaptive Management Program be implemented to promote resiliency across the region in face of significant climate change. I believe Commissioner Gordon Walker of the IJC will talk about this program in a few moments. The IJC has already modified its regulation plan for Lake Superior to better stabilize flows in the St. Marys River month to month. The IJC also recommended that work begin to assess how engineering structures could be installed in the St. Clair River to restore up to 10 inches of water levels on the upstream lakes. Another recommendation of the IJC was to periodically monitor changes in the St. Clair River conveyance, including conducting bathymetric surveys on a frequent basis. Mr. John Allis of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers will speak to this recommendation in a few minutes. Another significant recommendation by the IJC was for the governments should improve the monitoring and modeling of hydrologic and meteorologic conditions on the upper Great Lakes, including improving the prediction of evaporation rates. There have been significant improvements in this area already.”

Level Equations Lake MH AMH=117,400 Sq. km. (43,000 sq. miles) Lake St Clair ASC=1,114 Sq. km.** tiny causes stability problems Lake Erie AER=25,700 Sq. km “In early 2013, the International Joint Commission provided more recommendations to the U.S. and Canadian governments on how to improve management of water levels on the upper Great Lakes. First, the IJC recommended that no action be taken by governments to promote full regulation of Lakes Michigan-Huron outflows through construction of extensive locks and dams in the St. Clair River. This solution could cost up to $20 billion and would have profound adverse effects on the environment and economy of the region. The IJC recommended that a system-wide Adaptive Management Program be implemented to promote resiliency across the region in face of significant climate change. I believe Commissioner Gordon Walker of the IJC will talk about this program in a few moments. The IJC has already modified its regulation plan for Lake Superior to better stabilize flows in the St. Marys River month to month. The IJC also recommended that work begin to assess how engineering structures could be installed in the St. Clair River to restore up to 10 inches of water levels on the upstream lakes. Another recommendation of the IJC was to periodically monitor changes in the St. Clair River conveyance, including conducting bathymetric surveys on a frequent basis. Mr. John Allis of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers will speak to this recommendation in a few minutes. Another significant recommendation by the IJC was for the governments should improve the monitoring and modeling of hydrologic and meteorologic conditions on the upper Great Lakes, including improving the prediction of evaporation rates. There have been significant improvements in this area already.”

Flow Equations Equation Form St Clair (%Conv added) 2009 version Or 2011 version Detroit (%Conv added) Niagara (%Conv added) “In early 2013, the International Joint Commission provided more recommendations to the U.S. and Canadian governments on how to improve management of water levels on the upper Great Lakes. First, the IJC recommended that no action be taken by governments to promote full regulation of Lakes Michigan-Huron outflows through construction of extensive locks and dams in the St. Clair River. This solution could cost up to $20 billion and would have profound adverse effects on the environment and economy of the region. The IJC recommended that a system-wide Adaptive Management Program be implemented to promote resiliency across the region in face of significant climate change. I believe Commissioner Gordon Walker of the IJC will talk about this program in a few moments. The IJC has already modified its regulation plan for Lake Superior to better stabilize flows in the St. Marys River month to month. The IJC also recommended that work begin to assess how engineering structures could be installed in the St. Clair River to restore up to 10 inches of water levels on the upstream lakes. Another recommendation of the IJC was to periodically monitor changes in the St. Clair River conveyance, including conducting bathymetric surveys on a frequent basis. Mr. John Allis of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers will speak to this recommendation in a few minutes. Another significant recommendation by the IJC was for the governments should improve the monitoring and modeling of hydrologic and meteorologic conditions on the upper Great Lakes, including improving the prediction of evaporation rates. There have been significant improvements in this area already.”

Kalman Filter Principles Apollo 11 Neil Armstrong Lunar Landing story July 20 ‘69 Kalman Filter Principles Error signal should be zero “In early 2013, the International Joint Commission provided more recommendations to the U.S. and Canadian governments on how to improve management of water levels on the upper Great Lakes. First, the IJC recommended that no action be taken by governments to promote full regulation of Lakes Michigan-Huron outflows through construction of extensive locks and dams in the St. Clair River. This solution could cost up to $20 billion and would have profound adverse effects on the environment and economy of the region. The IJC recommended that a system-wide Adaptive Management Program be implemented to promote resiliency across the region in face of significant climate change. I believe Commissioner Gordon Walker of the IJC will talk about this program in a few moments. The IJC has already modified its regulation plan for Lake Superior to better stabilize flows in the St. Marys River month to month. The IJC also recommended that work begin to assess how engineering structures could be installed in the St. Clair River to restore up to 10 inches of water levels on the upstream lakes. Another recommendation of the IJC was to periodically monitor changes in the St. Clair River conveyance, including conducting bathymetric surveys on a frequent basis. Mr. John Allis of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers will speak to this recommendation in a few minutes. Another significant recommendation by the IJC was for the governments should improve the monitoring and modeling of hydrologic and meteorologic conditions on the upper Great Lakes, including improving the prediction of evaporation rates. There have been significant improvements in this area already.” A recursive algorithm based on the Kalman Filter was used to shape %conveyance functions for all three rivers, by driving the error to near zero for all months from 1900 to 2011

Based on 2010 USACE flow data “In early 2013, the International Joint Commission provided more recommendations to the U.S. and Canadian governments on how to improve management of water levels on the upper Great Lakes. First, the IJC recommended that no action be taken by governments to promote full regulation of Lakes Michigan-Huron outflows through construction of extensive locks and dams in the St. Clair River. This solution could cost up to $20 billion and would have profound adverse effects on the environment and economy of the region. The IJC recommended that a system-wide Adaptive Management Program be implemented to promote resiliency across the region in face of significant climate change. I believe Commissioner Gordon Walker of the IJC will talk about this program in a few moments. The IJC has already modified its regulation plan for Lake Superior to better stabilize flows in the St. Marys River month to month. The IJC also recommended that work begin to assess how engineering structures could be installed in the St. Clair River to restore up to 10 inches of water levels on the upstream lakes. Another recommendation of the IJC was to periodically monitor changes in the St. Clair River conveyance, including conducting bathymetric surveys on a frequent basis. Mr. John Allis of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers will speak to this recommendation in a few minutes. Another significant recommendation by the IJC was for the governments should improve the monitoring and modeling of hydrologic and meteorologic conditions on the upper Great Lakes, including improving the prediction of evaporation rates. There have been significant improvements in this area already.” Based on 2010 USACE flow data

Based on 2010 USACE flow data “In early 2013, the International Joint Commission provided more recommendations to the U.S. and Canadian governments on how to improve management of water levels on the upper Great Lakes. First, the IJC recommended that no action be taken by governments to promote full regulation of Lakes Michigan-Huron outflows through construction of extensive locks and dams in the St. Clair River. This solution could cost up to $20 billion and would have profound adverse effects on the environment and economy of the region. The IJC recommended that a system-wide Adaptive Management Program be implemented to promote resiliency across the region in face of significant climate change. I believe Commissioner Gordon Walker of the IJC will talk about this program in a few moments. The IJC has already modified its regulation plan for Lake Superior to better stabilize flows in the St. Marys River month to month. The IJC also recommended that work begin to assess how engineering structures could be installed in the St. Clair River to restore up to 10 inches of water levels on the upstream lakes. Another recommendation of the IJC was to periodically monitor changes in the St. Clair River conveyance, including conducting bathymetric surveys on a frequent basis. Mr. John Allis of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers will speak to this recommendation in a few minutes. Another significant recommendation by the IJC was for the governments should improve the monitoring and modeling of hydrologic and meteorologic conditions on the upper Great Lakes, including improving the prediction of evaporation rates. There have been significant improvements in this area already.” Based on 2010 USACE flow data

Based on 2010 USACE flow data “In early 2013, the International Joint Commission provided more recommendations to the U.S. and Canadian governments on how to improve management of water levels on the upper Great Lakes. First, the IJC recommended that no action be taken by governments to promote full regulation of Lakes Michigan-Huron outflows through construction of extensive locks and dams in the St. Clair River. This solution could cost up to $20 billion and would have profound adverse effects on the environment and economy of the region. The IJC recommended that a system-wide Adaptive Management Program be implemented to promote resiliency across the region in face of significant climate change. I believe Commissioner Gordon Walker of the IJC will talk about this program in a few moments. The IJC has already modified its regulation plan for Lake Superior to better stabilize flows in the St. Marys River month to month. The IJC also recommended that work begin to assess how engineering structures could be installed in the St. Clair River to restore up to 10 inches of water levels on the upstream lakes. Another recommendation of the IJC was to periodically monitor changes in the St. Clair River conveyance, including conducting bathymetric surveys on a frequent basis. Mr. John Allis of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers will speak to this recommendation in a few minutes. Another significant recommendation by the IJC was for the governments should improve the monitoring and modeling of hydrologic and meteorologic conditions on the upper Great Lakes, including improving the prediction of evaporation rates. There have been significant improvements in this area already.” Based on 2010 USACE flow data

How Well does the model fit the data? Almost exactly – where you can see red is where the model is off The IJC ‘93 LRS HW & LW crisis limits – also what-if focus on HW & LW “In early 2013, the International Joint Commission provided more recommendations to the U.S. and Canadian governments on how to improve management of water levels on the upper Great Lakes. First, the IJC recommended that no action be taken by governments to promote full regulation of Lakes Michigan-Huron outflows through construction of extensive locks and dams in the St. Clair River. This solution could cost up to $20 billion and would have profound adverse effects on the environment and economy of the region. The IJC recommended that a system-wide Adaptive Management Program be implemented to promote resiliency across the region in face of significant climate change. I believe Commissioner Gordon Walker of the IJC will talk about this program in a few moments. The IJC has already modified its regulation plan for Lake Superior to better stabilize flows in the St. Marys River month to month. The IJC also recommended that work begin to assess how engineering structures could be installed in the St. Clair River to restore up to 10 inches of water levels on the upstream lakes. Another recommendation of the IJC was to periodically monitor changes in the St. Clair River conveyance, including conducting bathymetric surveys on a frequent basis. Mr. John Allis of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers will speak to this recommendation in a few minutes. Another significant recommendation by the IJC was for the governments should improve the monitoring and modeling of hydrologic and meteorologic conditions on the upper Great Lakes, including improving the prediction of evaporation rates. There have been significant improvements in this area already.”

What if USACE’s 13 Type 4 sills were installed in 1977? The sills would have stepped the conveyance down by 8% (10”) “In early 2013, the International Joint Commission provided more recommendations to the U.S. and Canadian governments on how to improve management of water levels on the upper Great Lakes. First, the IJC recommended that no action be taken by governments to promote full regulation of Lakes Michigan-Huron outflows through construction of extensive locks and dams in the St. Clair River. This solution could cost up to $20 billion and would have profound adverse effects on the environment and economy of the region. The IJC recommended that a system-wide Adaptive Management Program be implemented to promote resiliency across the region in face of significant climate change. I believe Commissioner Gordon Walker of the IJC will talk about this program in a few moments. The IJC has already modified its regulation plan for Lake Superior to better stabilize flows in the St. Marys River month to month. The IJC also recommended that work begin to assess how engineering structures could be installed in the St. Clair River to restore up to 10 inches of water levels on the upstream lakes. Another recommendation of the IJC was to periodically monitor changes in the St. Clair River conveyance, including conducting bathymetric surveys on a frequent basis. Mr. John Allis of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers will speak to this recommendation in a few minutes. Another significant recommendation by the IJC was for the governments should improve the monitoring and modeling of hydrologic and meteorologic conditions on the upper Great Lakes, including improving the prediction of evaporation rates. There have been significant improvements in this area already.”

What if USACE’s 13 Type 4 sills were installed in 1977? both ‘86 HW and 2000-2013 LW raised by 10 inches “In early 2013, the International Joint Commission provided more recommendations to the U.S. and Canadian governments on how to improve management of water levels on the upper Great Lakes. First, the IJC recommended that no action be taken by governments to promote full regulation of Lakes Michigan-Huron outflows through construction of extensive locks and dams in the St. Clair River. This solution could cost up to $20 billion and would have profound adverse effects on the environment and economy of the region. The IJC recommended that a system-wide Adaptive Management Program be implemented to promote resiliency across the region in face of significant climate change. I believe Commissioner Gordon Walker of the IJC will talk about this program in a few moments. The IJC has already modified its regulation plan for Lake Superior to better stabilize flows in the St. Marys River month to month. The IJC also recommended that work begin to assess how engineering structures could be installed in the St. Clair River to restore up to 10 inches of water levels on the upstream lakes. Another recommendation of the IJC was to periodically monitor changes in the St. Clair River conveyance, including conducting bathymetric surveys on a frequent basis. Mr. John Allis of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers will speak to this recommendation in a few minutes. Another significant recommendation by the IJC was for the governments should improve the monitoring and modeling of hydrologic and meteorologic conditions on the upper Great Lakes, including improving the prediction of evaporation rates. There have been significant improvements in this area already.”

What if no dredging or erosion in St Clair? All levels in 1940 raised by 11 inches and by 20 inches in 2017 “In early 2013, the International Joint Commission provided more recommendations to the U.S. and Canadian governments on how to improve management of water levels on the upper Great Lakes. First, the IJC recommended that no action be taken by governments to promote full regulation of Lakes Michigan-Huron outflows through construction of extensive locks and dams in the St. Clair River. This solution could cost up to $20 billion and would have profound adverse effects on the environment and economy of the region. The IJC recommended that a system-wide Adaptive Management Program be implemented to promote resiliency across the region in face of significant climate change. I believe Commissioner Gordon Walker of the IJC will talk about this program in a few moments. The IJC has already modified its regulation plan for Lake Superior to better stabilize flows in the St. Marys River month to month. The IJC also recommended that work begin to assess how engineering structures could be installed in the St. Clair River to restore up to 10 inches of water levels on the upstream lakes. Another recommendation of the IJC was to periodically monitor changes in the St. Clair River conveyance, including conducting bathymetric surveys on a frequent basis. Mr. John Allis of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers will speak to this recommendation in a few minutes. Another significant recommendation by the IJC was for the governments should improve the monitoring and modeling of hydrologic and meteorologic conditions on the upper Great Lakes, including improving the prediction of evaporation rates. There have been significant improvements in this area already.”

IJC 1993 Levels Reference Study Annex 6 – Crisis Conditions Responses Crisis and Action Levels for High & Low Water each Great Lake For HW) Annex 6 Hydraulic measures H1 - Deviate from Lake Superior Regulation Plan H2 - Decrease Long Lac and Ogoki into Lake Superior H8 - Increase Chicago Diversion H10 - Place ice boom in of St. Clair River to prevent ice jams For LW) Annex 6 Hydraulic measures H9 - Reduce St. Clair River channel capacity (via flexible gates) “In 1993, the International Joint Commission recommended that the governments of the U.S. and Canada work toward implementation of a series of “Crisis Response Measures”. In turn, our federal Governments endorsed this strategy. Unfortunately, no progress has been made on this front over the last twenty years. On the next few slides, we will examine what these “crisis measures” are.”

What if Annex 6 measures H1, H2, H8, H9, H10 deployed? ‘86 HW 9” lower; 2000-2013 LW, 16” higher (18” without H10) “In early 2013, the International Joint Commission provided more recommendations to the U.S. and Canadian governments on how to improve management of water levels on the upper Great Lakes. First, the IJC recommended that no action be taken by governments to promote full regulation of Lakes Michigan-Huron outflows through construction of extensive locks and dams in the St. Clair River. This solution could cost up to $20 billion and would have profound adverse effects on the environment and economy of the region. The IJC recommended that a system-wide Adaptive Management Program be implemented to promote resiliency across the region in face of significant climate change. I believe Commissioner Gordon Walker of the IJC will talk about this program in a few moments. The IJC has already modified its regulation plan for Lake Superior to better stabilize flows in the St. Marys River month to month. The IJC also recommended that work begin to assess how engineering structures could be installed in the St. Clair River to restore up to 10 inches of water levels on the upstream lakes. Another recommendation of the IJC was to periodically monitor changes in the St. Clair River conveyance, including conducting bathymetric surveys on a frequent basis. Mr. John Allis of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers will speak to this recommendation in a few minutes. Another significant recommendation by the IJC was for the governments should improve the monitoring and modeling of hydrologic and meteorologic conditions on the upper Great Lakes, including improving the prediction of evaporation rates. There have been significant improvements in this area already.”

What if Annex 6 measures H1, H2, H8, H9, H10 deployed? ‘86 HW 9” lower; 2000-2013 LW, 12” higher (18” without H10) “In early 2013, the International Joint Commission provided more recommendations to the U.S. and Canadian governments on how to improve management of water levels on the upper Great Lakes. First, the IJC recommended that no action be taken by governments to promote full regulation of Lakes Michigan-Huron outflows through construction of extensive locks and dams in the St. Clair River. This solution could cost up to $20 billion and would have profound adverse effects on the environment and economy of the region. The IJC recommended that a system-wide Adaptive Management Program be implemented to promote resiliency across the region in face of significant climate change. I believe Commissioner Gordon Walker of the IJC will talk about this program in a few moments. The IJC has already modified its regulation plan for Lake Superior to better stabilize flows in the St. Marys River month to month. The IJC also recommended that work begin to assess how engineering structures could be installed in the St. Clair River to restore up to 10 inches of water levels on the upstream lakes. Another recommendation of the IJC was to periodically monitor changes in the St. Clair River conveyance, including conducting bathymetric surveys on a frequent basis. Mr. John Allis of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers will speak to this recommendation in a few minutes. Another significant recommendation by the IJC was for the governments should improve the monitoring and modeling of hydrologic and meteorologic conditions on the upper Great Lakes, including improving the prediction of evaporation rates. There have been significant improvements in this area already.”

Conclusions A %conveyance multiplier allows a variable conveyance model to achieve water balance for every month over a century+ The Kalman Filter concept can lead to an algorithm to shape %conveyance functions Once we have this model, we can test impact of structure and compensation strategy on water levels. What-ifs such as: What if no dredging or erosion in the St. Clair? Levels 11 to 20 inches higher What if we Installed the USACE 1977 sills in 1977? Levels 10 inches higher in both HW & LW What if flexible structures plus Annex 6 hydraulic measures H1, H2, H8, H9 used. 1986 HW 9 inches lower, and the 2000 to 2013 LW 16 to 18 inches higher “In early 2013, the International Joint Commission provided more recommendations to the U.S. and Canadian governments on how to improve management of water levels on the upper Great Lakes. First, the IJC recommended that no action be taken by governments to promote full regulation of Lakes Michigan-Huron outflows through construction of extensive locks and dams in the St. Clair River. This solution could cost up to $20 billion and would have profound adverse effects on the environment and economy of the region. The IJC recommended that a system-wide Adaptive Management Program be implemented to promote resiliency across the region in face of significant climate change. I believe Commissioner Gordon Walker of the IJC will talk about this program in a few moments. The IJC has already modified its regulation plan for Lake Superior to better stabilize flows in the St. Marys River month to month. The IJC also recommended that work begin to assess how engineering structures could be installed in the St. Clair River to restore up to 10 inches of water levels on the upstream lakes. Another recommendation of the IJC was to periodically monitor changes in the St. Clair River conveyance, including conducting bathymetric surveys on a frequent basis. Mr. John Allis of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers will speak to this recommendation in a few minutes. Another significant recommendation by the IJC was for the governments should improve the monitoring and modeling of hydrologic and meteorologic conditions on the upper Great Lakes, including improving the prediction of evaporation rates. There have been significant improvements in this area already.”