Presentation by Mrs. Huguette TIÉGNA, OPECST Vice-chairwoman OPECST (Parliamentary Office for Scientific and technological assessment) Presentation by Mrs. Huguette TIÉGNA, OPECST Vice-chairwoman EPTA – Lucerne 8-11-2017 Shaping the future of mobility Session III : Autonomous driving & Electric vehicles 8/11/2017 EPTA - Lucerne

Introduction : what is OPECST? - new members, a new political and institutionnal context, a new OPECST ? More scientific advisers More short term notes More communication 8/11/2017 EPTA - Lucerne

OPECST (Parliamentary Office for Scientific and technological assessment) I .- A strong political announcement : an end of all sales of gasoline and diesel vehicles in France by 2040 - Cars as a major axis of change -The context of the Dieselgate and of the Euro 6 standard -French guidelines : decrease of the share of nuclear power, phasing out of the production of hydrocarbons on the French territory -International positions : States (Norway, UK, India and …China), and Major cities (Paris, London, Amsterdam, Berlin,…) 8/11/2017 EPTA - Lucerne

II .- The state of the fleet of alternative electric vehicles in Europe : significant progress, but a still considerable step to be taken a) 1% of sales only are electric cars today b) Massive efforts of traditional manufacturers c) After Dieselgate, major announcements by VW d) Outlook : 25 million hybrids and 4 to 5 million pure electric cars by 2025? A steep step towards 2040 8/11/2017 EPTA - Lucerne

III .- Two complementary axes : transforming engine technology and revolutionising usage and mobility itself (1) a) Technology Batteries are quickly improving, but Li-ion batteries are limited; a wide range between a subcompact EV and Tesla S Huge R & D investements programs for car manufacturers Mild hybrids : 48V, hybrid for all? Evolution of vehicles (shape, size, number of wheels, etc.) -> Importance of the carbon footprint of electricity production 8/11/2017 EPTA - Lucerne

III .- Two complementary axes : transforming engine technology and revolutionising usage and mobility itself (2) b) Usage and mobility -Changes in attitudes and needs (purchase of new cars have been declining, young people less likely to take the driving test, new social symbols instaeda, car-sharing and car-pooling, bicycles and tricycles, …) -Traditional explanations can be revisited (place of residence and work remain crucial; effects of age are changing; average number of daily trips is decreasing; income and gender have less influence) -More original criteria make it possible to refine the analysis ( generational effect; lifestyle; corporate fleets, availabilty of means of public or collective means of transport, etc.) 8/11/2017 EPTA - Lucerne

IV .- What interventions and levers are available to public authorities a) Guiding the evolution of the demand for mobility b) Influencing the supply and demand of vehicles - financial tools to incentivise - regulatory leverage - fleet of public service vehicles? - power of the market c) The European level 8/11/2017 EPTA - Lucerne

V.- Alternative technological directions a) Improve the energy performance of combustion engines b) Reduce polluting emissions from combustion engines, beyond the developement of filters that do not remove particles but concentrate them c) Make oil « renewable » : synthetic fuels and the reconstitution of an artificial carbon cycle d) Develop vehicles with gas engines e) And last but not least : develop hydrogen powered vehicles in particular   8/11/2017 EPTA - Lucerne

VI .- A number of indirect questions a) New key countries and issues for natural resources (Chile, Congo, China for Conalt…) b) Unworthy to recycle the fleet of combustion engine vehicles? c) Infrastructure of supply of the new engines : what about the gasoline service station network? d) What about other transport modes? Train, air, sea? 8/11/2017 EPTA - Lucerne

OPECST (Parliamentary Office for Scientific and technological assessment) CONCLUSION a) Les Assises de la mobilité, and a future law for mobility in France in 2018 b) Building scenarios for 2040 : an important task for OPECST? 8/11/2017 EPTA - Lucerne