What Happened in Sri Lanka? And why it won’t be so bad next time

6:59 AM: Earthquake off Sumatra (most times provisional)

7:05 AM: Colombo Learns of Earthquake (USGS equipment)

7:14 AM: Honolulu PTWC Issues Earthquake Bulletin (no tsunami mention)

7:30 AM: Tsunami Hits Sumatra

8:04 AM: Honolulu Issues Bulletin with Tsunami Warning

10,500 DEAD 8:27 AM: Tsunami Hits Kalmunai

23,000 DEAD 8:50 AM: Tsunami hits Trinco and Batticaloa

30,000+ DEAD 9:30 AM: Tsunami Hits Galle, Kalutara and more

What Can One Phone Call Do?

Yala Safari Lodge Hit

Lighthouse Hotel Hit (same chain, no warning)

Lighthouse Calls Blue Water (same chain)

No casualties at Blue Water (22 mts warning)

What Can a National Disaster Warning System Do?

Best Case

8:04 AM: Honolulu Warning Reaches Warning Center

8:10 AM: Warning Issued to Sri Lanka

lives saved 8:30 AM: Lives Saved in Kalmunai and Batticaloa

Worst Case

23,000 DEAD 8:50 AM: Tsunami hits Trinco and Batticaloa

23,000 DEAD 9:05 AM: Warning Issued

7,000 saved 9:30 AM: ~7000 lives saved in Matara, Mulativu, etc.

What Can a Tsunami Warning System Do?

If the warning is generated quickly... If the media acts promptly... If the sirens are in place on the East Coast... If disaster awareness is high... the media acted promptly If the sirens were in place on the East Coast If disaster awareness was high

7:14 AM + 10 mts: COLOMBO Issues Tsunami Warning

Almost 30,000 Lives Saved Hotels and Beaches Cleared

What Is Being Done?

Vanguard Disaster Preparedness Centre A new private-third sector foundation is being established to make sure the lessons of this disaster are implemented

With LIRNEasia Process to develop a “people’s concept paper” on a disaster warning system already started Expert consultation on January 26th International experts (Peter Anderson et al.) Local researchers: LIRNEasia Subset of 100+ alumni of Asian Disaster Preparedness Center in Bangkok Persons with expertise selected through newspaper advertisement

www.vanguardfoundationlanka.org www.lirneasia.net Draft report up on websites by February 10th or before www.vanguardfoundationlanka.org www.lirneasia.net Video news conference Finalized after comment period Expert readers recruited Final Report to government by end February

After February Disaster education program in schools, leveraged by electronic media Quizzes, activities, contests Leading up to Disaster Awareness Day, June 26th, 2005

What Will This Produce?

Hopefully, more Angels like Tilly “Last term Mr Kearney taught us about earthquakes and how they can cause tsunamis,” “I was on the beach and the water started to go funny. There were bubbles and the tide went out all of a sudden.” “I recognised what was happening and had a feeling there was going to be a tsunami. I told mummy.”

In sum Institutions more important than technology Though technology is valuable Disaster prevention is core business of government But too important to be left to government alone Too many died But not in vain, if we succeed in building warning system and increasing disaster awareness

For more information www.vanguardfoundationlanka.org www.lirneasia.net Rohan Samarajiva: samarajiva@lirne.net