Planning Future Investment in England’s Strategic Roads Kieran Rix, Stephen Elderkin and Karen Summerville

Our Speakers Kieran Rix Stephen Elderkin Karen Summerville

Kieran Rix – RIS2 Programme Director Overview of RIS2 Kieran Rix – RIS2 Programme Director

We will cover three key topics Overview of RIS2 – the strategic planning timescales, our role, work done to date RIS2 analysis and evidence – how investment decisions will be made Next steps – The Strategic Road Network Report, DfT consultation and what happens next

RIS2 is currently in the research phase of a five year planning cycle Overview of RIS2 RIS2 is currently in the research phase of a five year planning cycle

At every stage we need to take these nine trends into account Overview of RIS2 At every stage we need to take these nine trends into account Regional-isation

There are four phases in each five year cycle Overview of RIS2 There are four phases in each five year cycle 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 post-2020 Research Decide Mobilise Deliver Gather evidence on the state of the network Decide which investments to take forward Prepare for delivery Deliver RIS2 and plan RIS3

Network Initial Report Overview of RIS2 We have published a series of documents and will shortly release the SRNIR Customer and stakeholder feedback The Road to Growth Strategic Studies Route Strategies Strategic Road Network Initial Report Published on .gov.uk Due for publication in Winter 17/18

Our documents are informed by stakeholder feedback Overview of RIS2 Our documents are informed by stakeholder feedback 2,700 points were raised 300 stakeholders provided feedback 370 members of the public contributed Route Strategies online tool Transport Focus research on Route Strategies 4,400 customer interviews 250 industry managers engaged 7 different sectors involved 130 questionnaire responses received 1-2-1 meetings with every LEP 5 other types of stakeholder involved Road to Growth discussion paper and research

We are responding to stakeholders’ information needs Overview of RIS2 We are responding to stakeholders’ information needs Stakeholders will be kept informed about how they can participate in key upcoming events - in particular the DfT-led consultation, which starts in Winter 17/18

We are developing a robust investment decision-making process Overview of RIS2 We are developing a robust investment decision-making process Through the Research phase: Stakeholder and customer feedback Strategic Studies Through the Decision phase: Route Strategies Road to Growth Delivery Secretary of State Strategic Thinking Analysis and modelling Secretary of State decides strategic vision, funds available, performance specification and investment plan Delivery and perfor- mance Consider impacts of schemes against factors including stakeholder views, safety, environment, economic growth, supply chain capability, and connectivity

We are taking deliverability into decision-making Overview of RIS2 We are taking deliverability into decision-making Early stage scheme-by-scheme assessment of deliverability risk Route-level assessment of deliverability and impact on customers and supply chain Aiming for stable flow of projects within programmes Building risk and uncertainty into the RIS

Questions?

RIS2 analysis and evidence Stephen Elderkin

Analysis and modelling RIS2 analysis and evidence Analysis and modelling is an important part of the investment decision-making process Road to Growth Route Strategies Strategic Studies Stakeholder and customer feedback Delivery and perfor- mance Strategic Thinking Analysis and modelling Secretary of State Delivery Through the Research phase: Consider impacts of schemes against factors including stakeholder views, safety, environment, economic growth, supply chain capability, and connectivity Secretary of State decides strategic vision, funds available, performance specification and investment plan Through the Decision phase:

The analytical platform comprises four elements RIS2 analysis and evidence The analytical platform comprises four elements World-leading Traffic models Comprehensive outcome models 5 regions The entire SRN Scheme-specific appraisal Region/corridor appraisal Forecast KPI performance Quantify “strategic case” Augment appraisal Innovative wider economy model Transport Planning and Evaluation Teams GDP Jobs Land-use change Whole-economy impacts Regionally disaggregated Translated into welfare economics for appraisal Provide transport planning and modelling expertise end-to-end Evaluation team feeds lessons learned back into the cycle

Regional traffic models determine the benefits of tackling congestion RIS2 analysis and evidence Regional traffic models determine the benefits of tackling congestion Regional Traffic Models are used to forecast how traffic flows and vehicle speeds change over time following infrastructure investment. We have built five regional traffic models covering the whole of England. The detailed representation of the SRN and the wider road network make these the largest and most complex traffic models in the world. The data underpinning the traffic models has been sourced from mobile phone data instead of roadside surveys. This has created a richer and more robust representation of user demands on the SRN. We are using the RTMs as part of RIS2 to provide an early relative indication of the potential “size of the prize” from tackling current and future congestion challenges in over 200 different locations on the SRN.

Our outcome models focus on the broader strategic objectives RIS2 analysis and evidence Our outcome models focus on the broader strategic objectives In addition to assessing the impact on traffic conditions from our major enhancement programme, we are deploying a range of Outcome Models that allow us to assess the impact on our broader strategic objectives - shown below along with a snapshot of some of our models. We are also deploying the Outcome Models to inform appropriate target setting for the KPIs contained within our performance specification.

Our economy model forecasts the economic impact of road enhancement RIS2 analysis and evidence Our economy model forecasts the economic impact of road enhancement We are developing a national-level macroeconomic model to forecast the impact of proposed major road enhancements on economic activity such as GDP and employment The model will be capable of informing both the strategic and economic cases for investment by producing estimates for changes in both economic activity and social welfare. It will capture some of the key mechanisms by which road improvements impact the economy, including raising productivity, enabling new developments and boosting employment.  This model builds on previous Land Use Transport Interaction models developed for the Transpennine Tunnel, High Speed 2 and Crossrail 2 The economy model will be used alongside conventional methods to appraise wider economic impacts set out in WebTAG.

Our models produce outputs that inform different parts of RIS2 RIS2 analysis and evidence Our models produce outputs that inform different parts of RIS2 We have developed a suite of analytical models and tools – called the “analytical platform” which cover all the core Highways England activities. The diagram highlights: The analytical tools we have developed within each key area of expenditure; The key analytical outputs from the use of these tools; How these outputs inform different parts of RIS2; The key links between tools in different areas of expenditure that we will manage to generate consistent investment proposals The analytical platform will be deployed to inform a number of RIS2 products within the Programme, including the Efficiency Review and Draft Strategic Business Plan

Our analytical platform informs the investment decisions on RIS2 RIS2 analysis and evidence Our analytical platform informs the investment decisions on RIS2 We use our analytical tools to support decision making around our recommendations for RIS2, including the shape and size of the major enhancement portfolio and the appropriate balance between different types of activity. For major enhancements, this involves both real-time support to decision makers and then more detailed analysis. This allows for iteration as the evidence base develops and new considerations emerge – as shown in the illustrative process diagram below.

RIS2 analysis and evidence We use a real time GIS tool to create a comprehensive picture of the network Layers covering: RIS 1 schemes RIS 1 for RIS 2 MCA Strategic Studies Prompts conversations about: Proximity to ports Overlapping/proximate schemes Coherent corridors

Questions?

Next Steps Karen Summerville

There are four milestones in the decision-making phase Next steps There are four milestones in the decision-making phase SRN Initial Report publication DfT analyses feedback to consultation Summer ‘18 Winter ‘17/ ’18 Spring ‘18 DfT lead Public Consultation Government response to consultation published

We have prepared an initial report on the Strategic Road Network Next steps We have prepared an initial report on the Strategic Road Network SRNIR Initial Report Highways England’s first assessment of the current state of the network and user needs Our high level view of what we have delivered in Roads Period 1 The factors that have been considered in informing our future priorities Our enhancement and maintenance priorities for the 2020-2025 period How we want to deliver our priorities and our proposed funding structure Due to be published in Winter 17/18 Publication will trigger the DFT-led public consultation The report will not contain a list of schemes

The SRN Initial Report comprises seven sections Next steps The SRN Initial Report comprises seven sections The report covers our licence obligations in terms of reporting as well as our recommendations on the priorities for future investment Introductory sections What we do Progress in Road Period 1 Informing future investment Investment priorities How we deliver Have your say

Everyone can participate in the consultation Next steps Everyone can participate in the consultation The consultation will be led by the Department of Transport. Highways England will support the consultation and inform stakeholders about how they can get involved. The following channels will be used to promote the consultation and enable participants to provide feedback: A dedicated inbox to collate consultation feedback Links to the consultation website will be tweeted. Follow @transportgovuk A link to the consultation webpage on the DfT website – www.gov.uk/DfT Sign up at the DfT website to receive alerts about the consultation

What you need to do Register your interest on GOV.uk to receive alerts Next steps What you need to do Register your interest on GOV.uk to receive alerts Look for the forthcoming alerts that will signal the start of the consultation Follow @highwaysengland and @transportgovuk on Twitter If you have further questions about the role of Highways England in the second Road Investment Strategy - e mail RIS2ProgrammeOffice@highwaysengland.co.uk

Questions?