Calculating future electorate using a local forecasting model Elisa Bullen Senior Intelligence Officer Manchester City Council Public Intelligence, part of Performance and Intelligence Manchester City Council

MCCFM POPGROUP ONS ward MYEs SYOA M/F NHS ward level births and deaths (ONS SNPP)

Elements TRENDS Base pop Pop 2002→ 2001 Fertility rates & counts 2001→ Mortality ratios & counts 2001→

ONS Census year of arrival by age 2011 Census School Census School Preference: Reception/Year 6 Schools’ New arrivals in year Child Benefit Admission numbers School Vacancies home-schooled FSM HESA ward-level ONS Census year of arrival by age 2011 Census NHS SYOA postcode data Council tax Housing/Council Tax Benefit Residential Pipeline State Pension by LSOA Residential social care units MOSAIC HMP Electoral Register NINo ward - best fit independent schools Other GM districts school data

Ward boundary review LGBCE MYE x SNPP x Rapid population growth Electorate variance 2015 imbalance MYE x MYE too dated at small area Projections at district level Net out-flow migration (-1k) SNPP x

Using MCCFM Recent data Ward level forecast to 2022 Future housing strategy Growth aligned to strategy

Job done Electoral register for Dec 2015 P 2015 (forecast at time) - 2022 P SYOA so 18+ ok P

LGBCE endorsement V MCCFM

for using MCCFM not SNPP Justification for using MCCFM not SNPP New housing - big impact: >25k by 2026 Alternative net migration - in-flow Need for ward forecast - diversity across wards - students, FNs, growth etc.

Forward thinking 2022 very different to 2015 Change not consistent, area and people Electorate very different in 2022 Wards based on 2015 electorate imbalanced by 2022

Imperfect register IER – 2015 down 12,000 electors Students – big push but HTC Transience – short term rents Residents v electors – non-eligible

...and Polling District requirement- wrong geography Balance 32 wards in 2015 and 2022 Members decision, advisory only

Brief Use Polling Districts as building blocks Calculate Dec 2015 17+ population in PDs Calculate 2022 ward and PD electorate Adjust until acceptable variance from average achieved

Address IER and HTC Was -12,000 on register 2014-15 just IER? % ER to 17+ population in 2011 to 2015 % ER in student areas change % ER in high rented areas change % ER in areas with many FNs change Weighted IER recovery, adjust Ward MYE

Pre-IER recovery = Manchester 2022 electorate of 417,015 (+4,000) Graduated method used to determine recovery to pre IER registration rates Relative percentage point change between 2014 and 2015 on electoral register <2 points difference between pre and post IER rates = revert to pre IER % by 2022 >2 but <5 points difference = revert 40% back to pre IER level >5 but <10 points difference = revert 5% back to pre IER level >10 points difference = remain at post IER % level = Manchester 2022 electorate of 417,015 (+4,000) now needed to convert to wards and PDs

2022 electorate BUT PDs not same %s by 2022 – new housing 2015 PD electorate = x% applied to 17+ residents in ward = 2015 PD 17+ Ward electorate Could work backwards from 2022 17+ residents to get 2022 PD electorate 2015 Ward electorate =y% y% x 2022 17+ pop = 2022 ward electorate Ward 17+ residents so x% x 2022 ward electorate = 2022 PD electorate BUT PDs not same %s by 2022 – new housing proxy for 2022 %PD: % ward’s new units in each PD by 2022 apply % to increase in 17+ population in ward= 2022 PD 17+ apply % to increase in electorate in ward= 2022 PD electors

Proposed wards: MCCFM benefit Confidence in electorate counts Split City Centre ward 2015 electorate no relation to 2022 Imbalance caused gone by 2022 -29% +3% -45% +5%

Submission 131-page proposal with findings Maps of current wards Maps of proposed wards Technical report

north-west/greater-manchester/manchester https://www.lgbce.org.uk/current-reviews/ north-west/greater-manchester/manchester Elisa Bullen Senior Intelligence Officer e.bullen@manchester.gov.uk