Tsunami Early Warning System: SOPs and Communication Strategies Initiatives by Pakistan Meteorological Department presenter Zahid Rafi Dated: 08 Oct, 2009 Conference on working together for disaster risk reduction

Contents Mechanism of tsunami generation and propagation Pakistan tsunami hazards and risk Establishment of Seismic Monitoring Network Development of tsunami warning centers. End To End tsunami warning and emergency response. Timeline and SOPs for TWCs. Tsunami warning systems and support tools

TSUNAMI GENERATION MECHANISM AND PROPAGATION Large earthquakes along subduction zones in sea can generate tsunami These subduction zones are along boundaries of tectonic plates Largest earthquakes have taken place along these subduction zones. A general criteria for tsunami generation is: M>7.5 Depth < 50km

Tectonic Plates and Subduction zones Well known subduction zone Magnitude > 8.5 Sumatra - Andaman zone

History of tsunami along Indo-Pak Coast line November 326 BC earthquake near the Indus delta /Kutch region that set off massive sea waves in the Arabian Sea The arrival of Vascude Gama’s in 1524 coincided with a violent sea quake and tsunami that caused alarm at Debul and Portuguese port. 16 June 1819 Rann of Kuchch earthquake M 7.7, A tsunami from Arabian sea Surged across the Rann of Kuch. 1845 June 19, India, Kutch. “The sea rolled up the Koree In Arabian Sea Magnitude 8.2 earthquake (Makran Earthquake (1945) caused a tsunami along coastal areas of Pakistan and India. Over 4000 deaths estimated

Up Gradation and Strengthening of Seismic Monitoring Network: A basic Component for Tsunami Early Warning System

Communication System

Projects for Strengthening of Tsunami Early Warning System Supported by UNESCO/IOC

Project Details Three Tide Gauge Systems for Ormara, Gwadar and Keti Bandar Satellite Communication System for data transmission Establishment of Broadcast Centre for Mass Media at PMD Islamabad. Data Acquisition and Analysis System at central station Karachi. Development of Area Specific Tsunami propagation and inundation model. Soft Component: Tsunami and coast disaster risk reduction and preparedness at the community level.

Tsunami Hazard Map for Pakistan Supported by Asian Disaster Reduction Centre (ADRC), Japan Objectives: Preparation of Tsunami Hazard Map Community Risk Awareness program To enhance the capacity to train local experts. To identify the problems and improve the tsunami warning system

SeisComP3 System Global: Earthquake: Monitoring: Processing: Analysis

Map Showing Locations of Seismic Stations

Real Time Wave-form Data

GUITAR (Decision Making Tool)

Strategy: Standard Operating Procedure for Issuance of Tsunami warning

REGIONAL/ LOCAL TSUNAMI NATIONAL SEISMIC MONITORING AND TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER PAKISTAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES REGIONAL/ LOCAL TSUNAMI Sr. No Time (Min) Activity ACTION COMMUNICATION 1 00 EARTHQUAKE ALERT Duty staff Alert each person at disk. Each of the shift duty person is clearly defined of their work. 2 05 EARTHQUAKE AND / OR TSUNAMI BULLETIN NO-1 (Preliminary analysis) Use criteria for evaluation of Tsunami threat which includes magnitude location depth etc 1- If below threshold Earthquake bulletin 2- In case of crossing threshold Tsunami Advisory One staff member deputed to communicate the bulletin to the agencies NDMA, NAVY, KPT, MSA, MEDIA etc. Magnitude ≥ 7.5 Depth < 50 Km Location in between Latitude 22oN and above Longitude 55oE to 80oE 3 06 Tide gauge data would be received from tide gauge network. This data will be used for confirmation of tsunami generation or otherwise. 4 08 1- Re-evaluation of Parameters starts before issuance of 2nd bulletin. 2- Tsunami travel time estimation starts. Duty personal are deputed to compute the revised earthquake parameters. Based on revised parameters 2nd bulletin will be for confirmation or cancellation. One person is assigned special task to calculate the time to reach shoreline using tables accounting for location depth and magnitude criteria.

Contd… 4 08 1- Reevaluation of Parameters starts before issuance of 2nd bulletin. 2- Tsunami travel time estimation starts. Duty personal are deputed to compute the revised earthquake parameters. Based on revised parameters 2nd bulletin will be for confirmation or cancellation. One person is assigned special task to calculate the time to reach shoreline using tables accounting for location depth and magnitude criteria. 5 10 Tsunami bulletin No-02 (Alert) Annex-4(A) and Annex -5 Or (Cancellation) Automatic evaluation is revised and bulletin is issued. If parameters are above threshold level warning will be issued. As impact time is calculated above this bulletin defines impact time for all coastal cities. If Parameters are not satisfying the threshold value a cancellation of the Tsunami Bulletin will be issued Communicated to all agencies with clear message about warning and time of impact. 6 12 Numerical models Sea level data Numerical models are developed with pre-planned scenarios in order to compute arrival time. Continuous monitoring of sea level data obtained from tide gauge network. 14 Decision making for the issuance of Tsunami bulletin No-03 Revised magnitude, Depth, Location, Focal parameters are combined with sea level data to make decision about upgrading or downgrading the warning. Careful study of all the available parameters will enable the duty seismologist to make this decision of Upgradation or downgrading or even cancellation of the Tsunami Bulletin No-02 7 15 Tsunami bulletin No-03 (Warning) Annex-5 Contains the data of wave arrival time based upon tide gauge data and numerical models. To All agencies DG Met briefed about the situation and revised parameters or cancellation

Earthquake & Tsunami Disaster in Pakistan (A Research Study)

The study area was divided into 19 zones in which 1 to 15 are seismic zones, 16 to 18 are faults zones and zone 19 is exclusively for Rann of Kachch (Allah Band fault) Extended portion of compression zone Allah Band Murray Ridge Kirther Ranges Pab & Ornach faults Makran Subduction zone

Seismotectonic of the study area Murray Ridge

MAXIMUM TSUNAMI HEIGHTS ALONG the COAST

Height (m) Time (S)

Height (m) Time (S)

Height (m) Time (S)

Height (m) Time (S)

Tsunami Time Line Map

Travel Times & Heights Observation Points Latitude (N) Longitude (E) Arrival Time (Sec) Tsunami Height (m) Karachi 67.14 24.6 7200 2.8 Ormara 64.65 25.1 2200 9.3 Pasni 63.38 25.2 2900 8.5 Gwadar 62.33 1550 8.8 Jiwani 61.86 24.9 1100 8.9

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