Mark R Payne mpay@aqua.dtu.dk @MarkPayneAtWork Marine Ecological Climate Services Forecasting biology at end-user relevant time-scales Mark R Payne mpay@aqua.dtu.dk.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Fisheries, Aquaculture and Seafood research in FP7.

Advertisements

© Crown copyright Met Office Decadal Climate Prediction Doug Smith, Nick Dunstone, Rosie Eade, Leon Hermanson, Adam Scaife.

Verification of NCEP SFM seasonal climate prediction during Jae-Kyung E. Schemm Climate Prediction Center NCEP/NWS/NOAA.

© Crown copyright Met Office Improving seasonal forecasting: role of teleconnections Madrid. Febrero Alberto Arribas.

How is Climate Change Expected to Impact Fisheries How is Climate Change Expected to Impact Fisheries Neil A. Bellefontaine Neil A. Bellefontaine World.

Observed Tropical Expansion: Impact on the Hydrological and Energy Cycles New Investigator Research Summary Joel Norris (Lead PI, UC San Diego) Robert.

Jon Robson (Uni. Reading) Rowan Sutton (Uni. Reading) and Doug Smith (UK Met Office) Analysis of a decadal prediction system:

Effects of climate change on the fish stocks in the high north seas ScanBalt Academy Meeting 2010, Svalbard Recent Ecological, Biological and Medical Challenges.

SeaWiFS-based chlorophyll in selekt Chl [mg m -3 ] Sub-decadal oceanic oscillations regulate the north-eastern Atlantic shelf ecosystems Hjálmar Hátún,

Climate, Ecosystems, and Fisheries A UW-JISAO/Alaska Fisheries Science Center Collaboration Jeffrey M. Napp Alaska Fisheries Science Center NOAA Fisheries.

Marine Science Ecology Unit Slides taken from Kelly Cook DRL

Upstream Engineering Centre Ocean predictions and the oil and gas industry - room for improvement? Colin Grant Metocean Technical Authority.

EMECO in an era of Climate Change Lowestoft, UK, 2-3 June, 2009.

IMOS Coastal Observations A National Perspective John Parslow.

Climate Forecasting Unit Prediction of climate extreme events at seasonal and decadal time scale Aida Pintó Biescas.

Utilizing remote sensing, modeling and data assimilation to sustain and protect fisheries: ecological forecasting at work Francisco Chavez, M. Messie Monterey.

Barcelona, 2015 Ocean prediction activites at BSC-IC3 Virginie Guemas and the Climate Forecasting Unit 9 February 2015.

DEMETER Taiwan, October 2003 Development of a European Multi-Model Ensemble System for Seasonal to Interannual Prediction   DEMETER Noel Keenlyside,

Spatial Fisheries Values in the Gulf of Alaska Matthew Berman Institute of Social and Economic Research University of Alaska Anchorage Ed Gregr Ryan Coatta.

Ecosystem Based Approach to Management and Ocean Observing Kevin Friedland National Marine Fisheries Service, 28 Tarzwell Dr., Narragansett, RI 02882,

The AMOC in the Kiel Climate Model WP 3.1 Suitability of the ocean observation system components for initialization PI: Mojib Latif With contribution from:

Inter-annual to decadal climate prediction Mojib Latif, Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences at Kiel University.

Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis ICES/NAFO Decadal Symposium Santander, Spain May 12th 2011 The serial recruitment failure to North Sea.

Scientific Needs from the Climate Change Study in the Ocean Toshio Suga Tohoku University (Japan) International Workshop for GODAR-WESTPAC Hydrographic.

NACLIM CT1/CT3 1 st CT workshop April 2013 Hamburg (DE) Johann Jungclaus.

Spatial distribution of fish stocks in a climate perspective Nordic Climate Fish Conference 2011, Solstrand Geir Odd Johansen.

World Climate Research Programme Climate Information for Decision Making Ghassem R. Asrar Director, WCRP.

Arctic Operational Oceanography at IMR Einar Svendsen Arctic GOOS planning meeting, September 2006 at NERSC, Bergen.

© Crown copyright Met Office Decadal predictions of the Atlantic ocean and hurricane numbers Doug Smith, Nick Dunstone, Rosie Eade, David Fereday, James.

Eidgenössisches Departement des Innern EDI Bundesamt für Meteorologie und Klimatologie MeteoSchweiz Using seasonal forecasts to estimate current climate.

CPPA Past/Ongoing Activities - Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions - Address systematic ocean-atmosphere model biases - Eastern Pacific Investigation of Climate.

Interannual Time Scales: ENSO Decadal Time Scales: Basin Wide Variability (e.g. Pacific Decadal Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation) Longer Time Scales:

Components of the Global Climate Change Process IPCC AR4.

Research Needs for Decadal to Centennial Climate Prediction: From observations to modelling Julia Slingo, Met Office, Exeter, UK & V. Ramaswamy. GFDL,

1 NOAA Priorities for an Ecosystem Approach to Management A Presentation to the NOAA Science Advisory Board John H. Dunnigan NOAA Ecosystem Goal Team Lead.

Jim Hurrell OceanObs September 2009 OceanObs09: Ocean Information for Society Day III: Delivering Services to Society Session B: Forecasting Decadal-to-Centennial.

NATIONAL RESEARCH FLAGSHIPS Sustainable Australian Fisheries and Ecosystems Future Directions - Science Tony Smith Geelong Revisited.

Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) © Crown copyright 09/2015 | Met Office and the Met Office logo are registered trademarks Met Office FitzRoy Road,

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology Understanding and predicting the contrast.

Projected changes to coastal fisheries. Based on......

WCC-3, Geneva, 31 Aug-4 Sep 2009 Advancing Climate Prediction Science – Decadal Prediction Mojib Latif Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences, Kiel University,

S 1 CT1/CT3 Meeting April 2013 Hamburg WP 3.1 Suitability of the ocean observing system components for initialization Wonsun Park GEOMAR.

GEF International Waters Conference Salvador, Brazil June 2005 APPLICATION OF LME INDICATORS : SCOTIAN SHELF LME and THE U.S. NORTHEAST SHELF LME.

Equatorial Atlantic Variability: Dynamics, ENSO Impact, and Implications for Model Development M. Latif 1, N. S. Keenlyside 2, and H. Ding 1 1 Leibniz.

Climate Impacts on Pelagic Ecosystems Phoebe Woodworth-Jefcoats Ecosystems and Oceanography Program Ecosystem Sciences Division PIFSC 5 April 2016.

Seasonal Forecasts for Fisheries Applications

Mingyue Chen, Wanqiu Wang, and Arun Kumar

Blue Action WP5 Workshop July 2017 GERICS, Hamburg

Blue Action WP5 Developing and Valuing Climate Services

Corinne Le Quéré Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research

Arctic Impact on Weather and Climate

Polar-lower latitude linkages

S2S sub-project on verification (and products)

The Arctic Ocean Ecosystem

Prediction for Climate Services

CANADA’S RENEWABLE RESOURCES: PART 3

Mid-Atlantic Blue Ocean Economy 2030

Marine Ecological Climate Services The feasible and the useful

Funded by the European Union under FP7, GA n Objectives

Predictability of the NAO? Adam Scaife

Precipitation variability over Arizona and

Issues for regional modeling

Decadal Forecast Exchange

Projected changes to coastal fisheries

SPECS: Climate Prediction for Climate Services

Ending overfishing can mitigate impacts of climate change

Timeline (log scale) of marine and terrestrial defaunation

Wojciech Wawrzynski Head of Science Support

Presentation transcript:

Mark R Payne mpay@aqua.dtu.dk @MarkPayneAtWork Marine Ecological Climate Services Forecasting biology at end-user relevant time-scales Mark R Payne mpay@aqua.dtu.dk @MarkPayneAtWork

What needs to be predicted? Tommasi et al 2017 Prog. Ocean.

Can we forecast marine ecological systems in a way that is useful to end-users?

Seasonal-scale forecasting of the ocean is a reality NMME Ensemble, SST Hindcast Correlation skill, 5 months lead

Decadal-scale forecasting of the ocean is a reality Matei et al. J. Clim. 2012 MPI-ESM-LR Model, SST Hindcast Correlation skill, 2-5 years lead

Current operational forecast systems

e.g. Phenology Forecasts Gulf of Maine Lobster Forecasts

Case Study End Users Pelagic Freezer Trawler Association (NL) Timing of herring spawning in English channel Distribution of Mackerel Danish Pelagic Producers Organisation (DK) Timing of reappearance of sandeel after winter Scientific groups responsible for monitoring and giving management advice on fish quotas

Some challenges thus far How do we motivate end-users? How to communicate the potential of this idea? How to put a century of failed forecasting efforts behind us? Distinction between climate-services for science and climate-services for industry

Mark R Payne mpay@aqua.dtu.dk @MarkPayneAtWork Marine Ecological Climate Services Prediction of marine ecological quantities on seasonal and decadal time-scale is possible Basis for novel and end-user-relevant climate services Mark R Payne mpay@aqua.dtu.dk @MarkPayneAtWork

Initial Value vs Boundary Value

Convergence of initialised and uninitialised models

Contributions to predictability

Potential Predictability

Feel the fear and do it anyway

Proportion of years with suitable habitat 1985-1994 2007-2011 Can we forecast habitat?

Gulf of Australia Tuna Forecasts - Seasonal SST Habitat

Blue whiting distribution Important feed for aquaculture Third largest fishery in the world in 2004. Spawning region

Observed distribution of blue whiting Expanded distribution Compacted distribution Observed distribution of blue whiting 2007 2013 Cold & Fresh Warm & Saline

Blue Whiting habitat forecast system Basis for decadal forecasts of distribution Correlation expanded compacted Lead time [years] Design of monitoring programme