TC Winds Conference Call

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Presentation transcript:

TC Winds Conference Call Wednesday, March 13, 2013 11:00 AM

Agenda Holland et al. vs. Modified Rankine vs. H*Wind Images Holland et al. Error Analysis

Holland et al. vs. Modified Rankine vs. H*Wind Images Apologize for the delay (technical issues) All verification images have now been posted for all available (Atlantic hurricane H*Wind analyses 2005-2011; 219 total analyses) Images have been posted at: http://www4.ncsu.edu/~bptyner/holland.html Collaborators are encouraged to view images and note any patterns for the various storms/analysis times and send to Bryce to include in final writeup for National Wind Team and for TCMWindTool developers

Holland et al. Error Analysis Goal: potential hybrid approach to improved interpolation method Minimize error method Hypothesis we are testing: -There are systematic errors in the interpolated error over the 219 available analysis times as a function of distance from storm center -Develop error function E(q,r) to model these errors to improve the Holland et al. interpolation method

Holland et al. Error Analysis: Method Minimize error method Use all 219 storm analysis times do ts = 1->num_available_analysis_times do i = quadrant 1->4 //calculate average hwind analyzed wind speed at the various distances from storm center (1) //calculate Holland et al interpolated wind speed at the various distances from storm center (2) //take difference of (1) and (2) to provide estimate of quadrant error for the analysis time based on distance from storm center (where data available for both) end do end do

Holland et al. Error Analysis For each quadrant and analysis time we then: Calculate average error, binning each 5 km distances from storm center Normalize error relative to best track maximum sustained winds provided by NHC for the analysis time Result: four plots (one for each quadrant), normalized error vs. distance from storm center

Holland et al. Error Analysis Quadrant 1 (Holland – H*Wind)

Holland et al. Error Analysis Quadrant 2 (Holland – H*Wind)

Holland et al. Error Analysis Quadrant 3 (Holland – H*Wind)

Holland et al. Error Analysis Quadrant 4 (Holland – H*Wind)

Holland et al. (2010) Update Can create improved Holland Interpolated Wind Field: Holland_Improved(q, d) = Holland Interp(q, d) + Normalized Interp Error Function (q, d) * Max Wind

Focuses Next Month Continuing working with Anantha on Holland et al. (2010) interpolation improvements Curve fitting (as function of radius) Add error fit to Holland et al. interpolated wind to get improved interpolated wind field for initialization in TCMWindTool Sensitivity to how far out to adjust Holland et al. interpolated field (lack of observations near storm center) WRF-LES simulation for Irene (2011) Next conference call: Wednesday, April 10th, 11:00 AM