Mingwei Li Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences

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Presentation transcript:

Effects of Climate Change on Trans-Pacific Ozone Using IGSM-CAM/GEOS-Chem Framework Mingwei Li Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences Massachusetts Institute of Technology Co-authors: Noelle Selin, Fernando Garcia-Menendez, Erwan Monier, Evan Couzo and Tao Feng 8th International GEOS-Chem Meeting May 3, 2017

Transport of ozone and its precursors from China in tropospheric ozone over western U.S. has been increasing in 2005-2010 Deseasonalized tropospheric O3 in the western US from China Verstraeten et al. (2015) How would trans-Pacific ozone be influenced by climate change?

IGSM-CAM/GEOS-Chem modeling framework Global System Model: MIT IGSM General Circulation Model: CAM 3 emission scenarios No climate policy: 2100 radiative forcing = 9.7 W/m2 Policy 4.5: 2100 radiative forcing = 4.5 W/m2 Policy 3.7: 2100 radiative forcing = 3.7 W/m2 4 climate sensitivities: 2.0°C, 3.0°C, 4.5°C or 6.0°C 5 different initial conditions * IGSM-CAM was developed by Monier et al. (2013), and this climate ensemble has been linked with CAM-Chem model (Garcia-Menendez et al., 2015).

IGSM-CAM/GEOS-Chem modeling framework Global System Model: MIT IGSM General Circulation Model: CAM Atmospheric chemistry-transport model: GEOS-Chem 3 emission scenarios No climate policy: 2100 radiative forcing = 9.7 W/m2 Policy 4.5: 2100 radiative forcing = 4.5 W/m2 Policy 3.7: 2100 radiative forcing = 3.7 W/m2 4 climate sensitivity: 2.0°C, 3.0°C, 4.5°C or 6.0°C 5 different initial conditions one initial condition

IGSM-CAM/GEOS-Chem modeling framework Global System Model: MIT IGSM General Circulation Model: CAM Atmospheric chemistry-transport model: GEOS-Chem v9-02 20-year GEOS-Chem simulation around 2000 and 2100 under the no-climate-policy scenario 1991-2010 2091-2110 Anthropogenic emissions are kept constant at 2006 levels Sensitivity simulation which zeros out Asian anthropogenic emissions to separate Asian ozone (only 3 years) * Linkage between CAM and GEOS-Chem was originally developed by Kim et al. (2015), and updated to v9-02 by Evan Couzo.

Climate penalty of U.S. ozone is around 4 ppb 2000-2100 change in temperature 2000-2100 change in surface ozone ppb +4.3 +3.3 K

2100 climate change decreases Asian ozone by up to 1ppb over the U. S 2100 climate change decreases Asian ozone by up to 1ppb over the U.S. due to enhanced PAN decomposition 2000-2100 change in Asian ozone ppb 2000-2100 %change in Asian PAN % Surface 500hPa 300hPa

Changes in U.S. average surface ozone due to 2000-2100 climate change Reduction in Asian ozone in response to 2100 climate change offsets ~20% of ozone climate penalty in the U.S. Changes in U.S. average surface ozone due to 2000-2100 climate change

Summary Acknowledgements 2100 climate change decreases Asian ozone by up to 1ppb over the U.S. due to enhanced PAN decomposition, and this reduction offsets ~20% of ozone climate penalty averaged over the U.S. Acknowledgements