Is there a fertility convergence across the Member States of the EU? Giampaolo LANZIERI Eurostat
Why should we care about? Coherence of the results in multi-country projections Socio-economic convergence (focus on the EU) Convergence in demography Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections Lisbon, 28-30 April 2010
Concepts of convergence Sigma-convergence: Beta-convergence (Barro regression): Gamma-convergence: Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections Lisbon, 28-30 April 2010
Further concepts of convergence Conditional beta-convergence: Convergence clubs: Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections Lisbon, 28-30 April 2010
Relative convergence Convergence towards a defined set of countries / value. Index of relative convergence: Coefficient of relative convergence: Decomposition: Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections Lisbon, 28-30 April 2010
The analysis Two hypothesis: Two indicators of fertility: Convergence across European countries as a whole Convergence of “new” MSs towards the “old” MSs Two indicators of fertility: Total fertility rate (TFR) Mean age at childbearing (MAC) Various statistics: Coefficient of variation (sigma-convergence) Coefficient of Barro regression (beta-convergence) Kendall indexes of rank concordance (gamma-convergence) Coefficient of variation for relative convergence Coefficient of relative convergence Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections Lisbon, 28-30 April 2010
Fertility σ-convergence in Europe: TFR Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections Lisbon, 28-30 April 2010
Fertility σ-convergence in Europe: MAC Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections Lisbon, 28-30 April 2010
Fertility β-convergence in Europe: TFR Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections Lisbon, 28-30 April 2010
Fertility β-convergence in Europe: MAC Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections Lisbon, 28-30 April 2010
Fertility γ-convergence in Europe: TFR Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections Lisbon, 28-30 April 2010
Fertility γ-convergence in Europe: MAC Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections Lisbon, 28-30 April 2010
Fertility σ-convergence in the EU-6 Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections Lisbon, 28-30 April 2010
Fertility σ-convergence in the EU-9 Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections Lisbon, 28-30 April 2010
Fertility relative convergence in the EU-9 Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections Lisbon, 28-30 April 2010
Conclusions on fertility convergence Absolute convergence occurred in the past in Europe Future developments difficult to foresee as: Alternation of convergence/divergence in the past (cycles) Stationarity on the most recent past Conditional convergence and/or convergence clubs need to be explored No clear evidence about relative convergence towards EU values but may be supported because: only short time series are available (new) policy efforts exchange of best practises Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections Lisbon, 28-30 April 2010
Implications for assumptions setting Possible option: (relative) convergence to theoretical values Extrapolation of convergence indicators for testing speed of convergence Hypothetical example of extrapolation: Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections Lisbon, 28-30 April 2010
Thanks for your attention! Further questions? Do not hesitate to contact: giampaolo.lanzieri@ec.europa.eu Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections Lisbon, 28-30 April 2010