Was the poll correct? WA POLL ACTUAL Initiative Yes No Yes No Result

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Presentation transcript:

Was the poll correct? WA POLL ACTUAL Initiative Yes No Yes No Result Comparison of pre-election WA Poll and Actual Election Returns 11/6/07 WA POLL ACTUAL Initiative Yes No Yes No Result I – 960 51% 49% 51% 49% Correct R – 67 61% 39% 57% 43% Correct CA – 8206 78% 22% 68% 32% Correct CA – 4204 65% 35% 51% 49% Correct Prop – 1 RTID 48% 52% 44% 56% Correct I – 25 (King Co) 55% 45% 57% 43% Correct To re-estimate the total Yes/No vote from the pre-election survey data, we dropped undecided voters, and re-calculated the margin. For example, on R-67 our pre-election survey found 48% Yes, 31% No, and 21% undecided. The new result is based on 48 / (48+31) resulting in 60.7% Yes and 39.3% No. * Actual election returns based on data posted 11/28/07 at http://vote.wa.gov/elections/WEI/VoterTurnout.aspx

About the Poll The Washington Poll is a non-partisan, academic survey research project sponsored by the Washington Institute for the Study of Ethnicity & Race (WISER), a research center at the University of Washington in the School of Social Sciences. Dr. Gary Segura, a professor of Political Science is the Director of WISER and a co-principal investigator on this survey with Dr. Matt Barreto, also a professor of Political Science. The survey was administered by telephone, by Pacific Market Research, in Renton, WA, based on a randomly selected list of phone numbers using a list of registered voters. The survey was in the field from October 22 – 28, 2007. A total of 601 registered voters throughout the state of Washington were interviewed, yielding in a 4.0% margin of error. Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding. Additional results and cross-tabulations will be released each day, so please check back for updates. Questions/Comments: info@washingtonpoll.org