Rwanda: Energy Access Diagnostic Results Based on Multi-Tier Framework Preliminary Results May 9, 2017 REPUBLIC OF RWANDA MINISTRY OF INFRASTRUCTURE

Rwanda: Energy Sector Context Outline Rwanda: Energy Sector Context MTF Survey in Rwanda: Survey Implementation Preliminary Results: Electricity Indicators Multi-Tier Analysis Analysis for Grid Users Analysis for Off-grid users Households with no access MTF GAP Analysis

Rwanda’s Energy Sector The total share of population with access to electricity using binary measure has risen from about 10% in 2010-2011 (EICV 3), to 19% in 2013-2014 (EICV 4). GoR has a target to increase electricity access to 70% by mid-2018 and 100% access by 2020 though a combination of on-grid and off-grid connectivity.

MTF Survey Implementation Center for Economic & Social Studies (CESS) implemented the survey and data collection was carried out in November and December 2016 Nationally representative survey with sample size of 3,300 households Allocation of households across provinces and rural-urban areas This presentation shows findings from a nationwide MTF energy survey carried out in the period of November and December 2017 by the survey firm - CESS (Center for Economic and Social Studies). The survey sampled 3300 households in both urban and rural areas of Rwanda.

Multi-Tier Approach to Measuring Electricity Access

Binary Electrification Rate is 24%, while MTF Rate is 27%** MTF approach raises electrification to 27% by including off-grid solar solutions Most of electrified households in Tier 3+ Traditional Binary Approach Multi-tier Framework Approach The electrification rate using the binary approach, which only looks at connection to the grid, is 24%. However, the MTF approach raises this electrification rate from 24% to 27%. This is mostly due to the inclusion of off-grid solutions (mostly solar lighting systems and solar home systems). According to the collected data, majority of the households in Rwanda are in Tier 0-as a result of technology or lack of grid connectivity. A few households in Tier-0 have electricity connection but are classified as Tier 0 because hours of supply is inadequate to meet Tier 1 requirement (at least 4 hours daily). Currently Solar lanterns have been classified in Tier 0, but further analysis is underway to calculate a the tier for households using solar lanterns based on its brand, capacity, ability to power mobile charging and he number of people it can serve. This would classify them into a continuous tier between Tier 0 and Tier 1. Once completed, this may increase a number of households in Tier 1. The Final Tier for Electricity Access is taken as the minimum of all the individual attribute Tiers ** MTF Data was collected in November and December of 2016

Energy Access is Now Mostly a Rural Challenge A larger share of the households in rural areas are in Tier 0, while urban households are mostly in Tier 3 and above Electricity access is mostly a rural challenge with over 85% of rural households not having any access to electricity. While a higher proportion of the urban households are connected and have relative good access (Tier 3+).

Main Attributes for MTF Analysis The MTF measures access to energy across several dimensions and attributes including: capacity, availability (measured as daytime and evening duration), reliability, quality, legality, and health and safety. In Rwanda, we could not collect information on Income and consumption, so we are unable to calculate affordability tier for MTF. We will go into detail for each of these attributes in the next slide

Summary of Attributes Source- 71% - no electricity, 1% Solar lighting systems, 4% Solar Home System, 23% National Grid Appliance Categories for Off-Grid – Tier 1 includes Lighting, radio and mobile charging –76% of households own these appliances; Tier 2 (Fan, TV and computer) – 23 % Households own them Daytime Duration – 8 % of the households have very low duration (4 hours of electricity all day), while 52 & have >22 hours of electricity all day Evening Duration – Majority households (72%) have 4 hours of evening supply (between 6-10 pm), while a few households (3%) have only one hour of evening supply Reliability – A large share of the households have between 4-14 outages in a week and 22% households have less than 4 outages per week and the total duration of those outages is less than 2 hours Quality – Voltage problems causing appliance damage have affected about 21% of the households in Rwanda. Legality and Safety of electricity supply are not that big in Rwanda, with only 2% households indicating illegal connection and 4 % reporting a serious accident due to the electricity supply

Location of Households by Tiers Most households with Tier 0 connection are not grid connected and tend to be in remote and rural areas, while the households in higher tiers(in green) may be in and around urban centers.

Grid-Connected x Households New slide: Transition, going into Grid

Grid-Connected Households are Concentrated in Higher Tiers Grid-connected households are mostly in Tiers: 3-5 in Urban and Rural areas Only 7% are in Tier 0-2 Nationwide By Rural and Urban The MTF Tier distribution for grid connected households shows that most of them have relatively good quality of supply and 93% of the total grid-connected households surveyed have Tier 3 or higher level of access. The situation is similar for both rural and urban households, meaning that quality of service is comparable in urban and rural areas.

Grid Connected Households – Summary of MTF Attributes DAYTIME DURATION EVENING DURATION RELIABILITY Out of 24 Hours Out of 4 Hours (6-10PM) No. of Outages and Duration of Outages QUALITY LEGALITY HEALTH & SAFETY Low Voltage Problem Based on Bill Payment Death & Permanent Limb Damage When we look at the individual attributes for Grid Connected HH’s, we find that Daytime Duration is holding 3 % of the households back in Tier 0 and Tier1, while Reliability (both outages per week and the total duration of these outages) is one of the main constraint which is holding households back from Tier 5 level of access. About 68 % of the households are in Tier 4 for Reliability

Key Issues with Grid Service Outages, Affordability and Voltage Problems are the Key Issues Faced by Grid Users (Nationwide & Urban/Rural) Main issues with the grid Most of the Grid connected households are relatively satisfied with the service, however when asked about the main issues they faced with their electricity supply, they identified unpredictable interruptions (26.5%), high electricity tariff (21%), and voltage fluctuation (16.5%). These household perceptions are in line with the MTF survey finding that reliability (unpredictable outages and duration of outages) and quality (voltage fluctuations) are the key contributes that hold Tier 3 and 4 households from reaching Tier 5. . These findings on Reliability and Voltage problems also show up in the survey based on the MTF Attributes for Grid households that we looked at earlier

Monthly Grid Consumption per household (kWh) Rural Grid connected households have a very low electricity consumption, which may be equally satisfied by off-grid solutions

Households with Off-Grid Solutions

Off-Grid Solutions are Mostly in Tiers 0-2 Solar is the main off-grid solution used and only 4% of the households use solar as the main source Urban off-grid households are mainly in Tier 1 and Tier 2 Rural households are mainly in Tier 0-1 (Solar lanterns) and Tier 1. (Further analysis underway) By Rural and Urban Nationwide Around 4% of the sampled households use solar solutions (3% solar home systems and Lightings systems and 1% solar lanterns) as their main source of electricity. The MTF Tier distribution for households with solar solutions shows that solar lanterns are mostly between Tier 0 and Tier 1 (here depicted as Tier 0-1 for simplicity); solar lighting systems and SHS are in Tier 1 and Tier 2. Solar lanterns are generally single light systems, which may or may not be able to power a cell phone and are classified here as Tier 0. With further analysis, based on their brand and ability to charge mobile phone, they will move to a continuous tier between 0-1. This analysis will be done later and we hope that majority of the solar lanterns reported here will move upto Tier 1. Solar lighting systems are multi-light systems, which typically also power cell phone and typically deliver Tier 1 service. Solar home system is a larger system that can power TV or a fan and deliver Tier 2 service. Urban off-grid households are mainly in Tier 1 and Tier 2, while rural households in Tier 0-1 (Solar lanterns) and Tier 1

Majority of the Solar products have been acquired in the last 2 years Years of Using a Solar Product Solar penetration is still low (4%), but the uptake is very quick.

How Were Solar Products Obtained?

Household Satisfaction & Key Issues with Solar Q/A: “How satisfied are you with your solar device?” Q/A: “For Households that are unsatisfied with the service, what are the key issues with solar device?” Most households seem to be relatively satisfied with the service from their solar device and only about 23% of the households have reported that they are not satisfied with the service When asked about the key issues they face with their solar device, 37% of the respondents wants to have a better quality of lighting. 26 % said duration was an issue

Households with No Access

Main Reason for Not Connecting to the Grid Households with no access: A very large share of households (72%) have no access to any form of electricity or have Tier 0 access. Most of them are not connected to the grid or have solar lanterns classified between Tier 0 and 1. Over half of the households who are not connected to the Grid found the initial cost of connection to the grid to be very high, while about 37% have said that the Grid is too far from their household for them to be able to connect.

GAP Analysis: Nationwide Most households in Tier 0 have no electricity access Only 2% of the grid-connected households are in Tier 0 due to duration issues (< 4 hours of service a day) Improving evening duration and quality for On-Grid will raise households from 3 to higher tiers, but reliability and daytime duration also need to be addressed. By allowing for dis-aggregation of each of the attribute and technology used for electricity access, the MTF approach can help determine the key reasons holding back the country from achieving higher tier levels. This type of information can help target specific energy sector interventions. This chart highlights the main constraining factors households back in each of the Tier. Most Households are in Tier 0 as they have no electricity access. Providing grid or off-grid solutions to these households can help move them to higher tiers or provide them with basic electricity access. 2% of the grid connected households are also in Tier 0 as they have less than 4 hours of service a day. Increasing the hours of service for these households can move them to a higher tier. Grid is concentrated in higher tiers (Tier 3 and 4); off-grid predominant for Tier 1. Improving evening duration will help raise households from Tier 2 and 3 up, but quality and reliability are also critical for moving from Tier 3 to higher Tiers. Main Findings MTF presents a higher access rate in the case of Rwanda (27%) compared to the binary (24%) as of December 2016 Penetration of solar off-grid is only 4% and most of it is very recent (last 2 years) and there is a good margin for improving the market through private investments Connection fee is a main constraint for HH’s to connect to Grid (Government already taking measures to address this)