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The role of epidemic intelligence and surveillance in predicting and managing epidemics Dr Thomas Mollet - ECDC

Introduction Contents Objectives of early detection and surveillance Epidemic Intelligence Event based and indicator based surveillance Examples

Objectives of Early Detection and Surveillance ECDC mission: to identify, assess and communicate current and emerging threats to human health posed by infectious diseases Risk assessment

Objectives of Early Detection and Surveillance Health security at EU level

Objectives of Early Detection and Surveillance Surveillance for action

Objectives of Early Detection and Surveillance Risk assessment vs risk management

Epidemic Intelligence Epidemic intelligence benefit

Epidemic Intelligence Epidemic Intelligence: Systematic collection and collation of information from a variety of sources, which is then validated and analysed with the purpose to speed up the detection of potential health threats and allows if necessary, timely response through an adequate risk assessment.

Event based and indicator based surveillance Complementary surveillances

Event based and indicator based surveillance Specificities

Event based surveillance

Event based surveillance Common approach

Event based surveillance Screening: detecting new threat from unlimited amount of public health information

Event based surveillance Timeliness

Event based surveillance Restricted network

Event based surveillance Filtering: deciding which screened information is relevant Criteria varies from a country to another IHR and EWRS criteria International vs national threat

Event based surveillance Validation: confirming the accuracy and credibility Smallpox in DRC ? No Zika cases in Belize?

Event based surveillance Analysis: evaluating the information with a focus on public health risk Time Place Person

Example - Ebola

Example - Zika

Example – yellow fever

Conclusion EI cannot predict outbreaks, but can identify favourable determinants for future outbreaks (vector, climate, political context, mass gathering…) EI aims to support management of outbreaks and EI is the first step for response

Question 1 2239 What is epidemic Intelligence? Choose one answer. a. A process to detect, validate, analyse and investigate signals that may represent a public health threat b. A process to monitor web sources in order to identify public health threats c. A process that will replace classical diseases surveillance d. A process that is possible only with a laptop and an internet connection Question 8 – page 13 from the handbook 2239

Question 1 What is epidemic Intelligence? Choose one answer. a. A process to detect, validate, analyse and investigate signals that may represent a public health threat b. A process to monitor web sources in order to identify public health threats c. A process that will replace classical diseases surveillance d. A process that is possible only with a laptop and an internet connection Question 8 – page 13 from the handbook

Question 2 Why Event Based Surveillance is so important in Epidemic intelligence? Choose more answers. a. Because it allows detection of rare events b. Because it is less costly than indicator based surveillance c. Because it detects real outbreak faster d. Because it will replace indicator based surveillance in the future Question 8 – page 13 from the handbook 2240

Question 2 Why Event Based Surveillance is so important in Epidemic intelligence? Choose more answers. a. Because it allows detection of rare events b. Because it is less costly than indicator based surveillance c. Because it detects real outbreak faster d. Because it will replace indicator based surveillance in the future Question 8 – page 13 from the handbook

Question 3 Epidemic Intelligence refer to: Choose one answer. a. Human infectious diseases only b. Human infectious diseases and bacteriological threat (Bio terrorism) only c. All hazards d. One health Question 8 – page 13 from the handbook 2242

Question 3 Epidemic Intelligence refer to: Choose one answer. a. Human infectious diseases only b. Human infectious diseases and bacteriological threat (Bio terrorism) only c. All hazards d. One health Question 8 – page 13 from the handbook

Question 4 What are the mandatory reporting networks for EU countries? Choose more answers. a. IHR 2005 (International Health Regulation) b. EWRS (Early Warning and Response System) c. DRS (Diseases Reporting System) d. GAORN (The Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network) Question 8 – page 13 from the handbook 2243

Question 4 What are the mandatory reporting networks for EU countries? Choose more answers. a. IHR 2005 (International Health Regulation) b. EWRS (Early Warning and Response System) c. DRS (Diseases Reporting System) d. GAORN (The Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network) Question 8 – page 13 from the handbook

Question 5 What is the place of Twitter in Epidemic Intelligence? Choose one answer. a. Important as everybody has a Twitter account b. Negligible as only few people share data about their own health c. Negligible because it is not a reliable source d. Important as institution use it to communicate Question 8 – page 13 from the handbook 2244

Question 5 What is the place of Twitter in Epidemic Intelligence? Choose one answer. a. Important as everybody has a Twitter account b. Negligible as only few people share data about their own health c. Negligible because it is not a reliable source d. Important as institution use it to communicate Question 8 – page 13 from the handbook