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The role of epidemic intelligence and surveillance in predicting and managing epidemics Dr Thomas Mollet - ECDC
Introduction Contents Objectives of early detection and surveillance Epidemic Intelligence Event based and indicator based surveillance Examples
Objectives of Early Detection and Surveillance ECDC mission: to identify, assess and communicate current and emerging threats to human health posed by infectious diseases Risk assessment
Objectives of Early Detection and Surveillance Health security at EU level
Objectives of Early Detection and Surveillance Surveillance for action
Objectives of Early Detection and Surveillance Risk assessment vs risk management
Epidemic Intelligence Epidemic intelligence benefit
Epidemic Intelligence Epidemic Intelligence: Systematic collection and collation of information from a variety of sources, which is then validated and analysed with the purpose to speed up the detection of potential health threats and allows if necessary, timely response through an adequate risk assessment.
Event based and indicator based surveillance Complementary surveillances
Event based and indicator based surveillance Specificities
Event based surveillance
Event based surveillance Common approach
Event based surveillance Screening: detecting new threat from unlimited amount of public health information
Event based surveillance Timeliness
Event based surveillance Restricted network
Event based surveillance Filtering: deciding which screened information is relevant Criteria varies from a country to another IHR and EWRS criteria International vs national threat
Event based surveillance Validation: confirming the accuracy and credibility Smallpox in DRC ? No Zika cases in Belize?
Event based surveillance Analysis: evaluating the information with a focus on public health risk Time Place Person
Example - Ebola
Example - Zika
Example – yellow fever
Conclusion EI cannot predict outbreaks, but can identify favourable determinants for future outbreaks (vector, climate, political context, mass gathering…) EI aims to support management of outbreaks and EI is the first step for response
Question 1 2239 What is epidemic Intelligence? Choose one answer. a. A process to detect, validate, analyse and investigate signals that may represent a public health threat b. A process to monitor web sources in order to identify public health threats c. A process that will replace classical diseases surveillance d. A process that is possible only with a laptop and an internet connection Question 8 – page 13 from the handbook 2239
Question 1 What is epidemic Intelligence? Choose one answer. a. A process to detect, validate, analyse and investigate signals that may represent a public health threat b. A process to monitor web sources in order to identify public health threats c. A process that will replace classical diseases surveillance d. A process that is possible only with a laptop and an internet connection Question 8 – page 13 from the handbook
Question 2 Why Event Based Surveillance is so important in Epidemic intelligence? Choose more answers. a. Because it allows detection of rare events b. Because it is less costly than indicator based surveillance c. Because it detects real outbreak faster d. Because it will replace indicator based surveillance in the future Question 8 – page 13 from the handbook 2240
Question 2 Why Event Based Surveillance is so important in Epidemic intelligence? Choose more answers. a. Because it allows detection of rare events b. Because it is less costly than indicator based surveillance c. Because it detects real outbreak faster d. Because it will replace indicator based surveillance in the future Question 8 – page 13 from the handbook
Question 3 Epidemic Intelligence refer to: Choose one answer. a. Human infectious diseases only b. Human infectious diseases and bacteriological threat (Bio terrorism) only c. All hazards d. One health Question 8 – page 13 from the handbook 2242
Question 3 Epidemic Intelligence refer to: Choose one answer. a. Human infectious diseases only b. Human infectious diseases and bacteriological threat (Bio terrorism) only c. All hazards d. One health Question 8 – page 13 from the handbook
Question 4 What are the mandatory reporting networks for EU countries? Choose more answers. a. IHR 2005 (International Health Regulation) b. EWRS (Early Warning and Response System) c. DRS (Diseases Reporting System) d. GAORN (The Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network) Question 8 – page 13 from the handbook 2243
Question 4 What are the mandatory reporting networks for EU countries? Choose more answers. a. IHR 2005 (International Health Regulation) b. EWRS (Early Warning and Response System) c. DRS (Diseases Reporting System) d. GAORN (The Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network) Question 8 – page 13 from the handbook
Question 5 What is the place of Twitter in Epidemic Intelligence? Choose one answer. a. Important as everybody has a Twitter account b. Negligible as only few people share data about their own health c. Negligible because it is not a reliable source d. Important as institution use it to communicate Question 8 – page 13 from the handbook 2244
Question 5 What is the place of Twitter in Epidemic Intelligence? Choose one answer. a. Important as everybody has a Twitter account b. Negligible as only few people share data about their own health c. Negligible because it is not a reliable source d. Important as institution use it to communicate Question 8 – page 13 from the handbook