GNOSTIC ANALYSIS Applications to Experimental Data from Monitoring and Research Pavel KOVANIC, Tomas OCELKA Roman GRABIC, Mark RIEDER CZECH REPUBLIC Presentation of the paper “Gnostic Analysis: A Novel Approach for Univariate and Multivariate Data Analysis”, The 9th World Multi-Conference on Systemics, Cybernetics and Informatics, July 10-13, 2005, Orlando, Florida, USA Full paper in Proceedings 2005 WMSCI 2005, Vol. VI, pp. 289

SPECIFICS of MATHEMATICAL GNOSTICS Theory of individual data and small data samples Realistic assumptions Uncertainty: a lack of knowledge “Let data speak for themselves” Results maximizing information Natural robustness

Comparison of two approaches

Scientific base

ADVANCED DATA ANALYSIS Robust probability distributions instead of point estimates Robust multidimensional (MD) models

GNOSTIC DISTRIBUTION FUNCTIONS I No a priori model (everything from data) Maximum information Robustness in estimation of: Scale and location parameters Bounds of data support Bounds of membership

GNOSTIC DISTRIBUTION FUNCTIONS II Data homogeneity tests Marginal cluster analysis Cross-section filtering Applicability to censored data Applicability to heteroscedastic data

ROBUST MD-MODELS and comparability of objects MD cluster analysis and comparability of objects MD ordering of objects’ positions MD monitoring of time series MD evaluating/rating of objects MD diagnostics of objects

EXAMPLES of APPLICATIONS DISTRIBUTION FUNCTIONS: The 2-nd part of the presentation MD MODELS: NOW

MD-ORDERING: Three firms

MD-ORDERING: Keane Inc.

Market generates chaos

MD-Monitoring 2 (model changes)

Diesel cars ordered by utility

Impacts on car prices

Environmental applications Tomas Ocelka, Institute of Public Health Ostrava Czech Republic Tomas.Ocelka@zuova.cz

Current Status of Environmental data Small data sets Economic limitations Each measurement has unique character Too few parameters for description of sufficient impact assessment (health/environmental) Optimization of truly demanding data is required Historical data, if used, has different methodological approaches => uncertainty sources Methodological comparisons are must Lack of data is a new challenge for (N-variate) data analysis Statistical approach – is applicable to the „large“ data sets New approaches – Gnostic analysis – can play important role in Environmental and Health Impact Assessments

Overall process of assessment Comparison (QA/QC) Env./Health Status Health impact Environmental impact Limits

Biotic and abiotic indicators Mussels (e.g. Dreissena polymorpha) Fish Bivalves Benthic organisms Exposure SPMD DGT Continual / integral sample TWA (timely weighted average) Bio-accumulation Bio-concentration Reflect of large sample quantity Only diluted phase Toxicological significance

Case studies Bio-monitoring of POPs and heavy metals in Czech Rivers (NIP for Stockholm Convention) Biotic (chemicals) SPMDs (chemicals, toxicity) Monitoring of POPs – in glacial (mineral) water Bio-monitoring of POPs around Spolana chemical plant POPs remediation plant Ambient air monitoring of PAHs and dust, including Genotoxicity effects evaluation

Applications description A comparison for metals HM (As) in Fish – NO censoring HM (As) in Fish – Censoring applied HM (As) - various Sampling methods A comparison for organics 3 locations (Labe river, p.p-DDD) 4 sampling methods (Labe river, p.p-DDD) The Final Countdown… Hg – overall control for 16 rivers p.p-DDD – overall time profile for 3 years (14 sampling points)

Rivers – Fish – NO censoring

Rivers: Fish – Censoring applied

Rivers: comparison of SM

Organic, 3 sampling points

Comparison of SM

Hg – overview of contamination

Organic, profile of contamination

Conclusions Gnostic analysis exhibits promising results for data interpretation, providing maximal information (by GDF, USB, LSB, etc…) Distribution functions gives us strong application potential for prediction as well as on-line diagnostic measured data Applications of Gnostic programs are based on available environment S-PlusTM; StatisticaTM is under development)

Future intentions in research To issue a book about Gnostic approach (728 pages); under litigation for print Extension of developed Gnostic programs for other platforms, using GUI Involvement to all practical and typical applications Continue in development of research team for wider applications (to be published)

Acknowledgement Mentioned authority for data: CHMI, www.chmi.cz Grant Agency CR for supporting project (No. 203/04/1457 ), www.gacr.cz NRL for POPs team for excellent analytical work and methods development

… thank you for your attention! For any further information – do not hesitate contacting us….. Gnostic