Predicting walking and cycling behaviour change using an extended Theory of Planned Behaviour Emma Bird, Jenna Panter, Graham Baker, Tim Jones, David Ogilvie Emma Bird Senior Lecturer in Public Health 8th Conference of HEPA Europe Wednesday 15th November 2017

Aim To what extent does an extended version of the Theory of Planned Behaviour (eTPB) predict change in walking and cycling for transport and recreation? Study conducted within the context of the iConnect study, a natural experiment that aimed to evaluate the effects of newly constructed infrastructure for walking and cycling on travel behaviour, physical activity and associated carbon emissions (www.iconnect.ac.uk). Image: Courtesy of Sustrans

Perceived behavioural control (PBC) Extended Theory of Planned Behaviour (eTPB) Behaviour [change?] Intention Attitude Subjective norms Perceived behavioural control (PBC) Visibility The TPB proposes that behaviour is a reasoned decision determined by intention, which in turn is influenced by an individual’s attitude toward the behaviour (e.g., positive or negative evaluation of the outcome to a situation), subjective norm (e.g., perceived social pressure to perform the behaviour) and perceived behavioural control (PBC) (e.g., the perceived ease of control over performing that behaviour). Habit Adapted from Ajzen (1991)

Methods Observational cohort analysis of iConnect survey data Adults from three UK municipalities (Cardiff, Kenilworth, Southampton) Three data collection points (baseline, 1-year follow-up, 2-year follow-up) Multinomial logistic regression was used to examine the associations between baseline eTPB constructs and (i) increases and (ii) decreases in the four behavioral outcomes, adjusted for socio-demographic characteristics.

Methods Baseline responses to each psychological construct from the eTPB in relation to four behavioural outcomes E.g. Attitude: “It is beneficial for me to walk for travel.” Baseline to 1-year and 2-year change in time spent walking and cycling for transport and recreation Increased = ˃15 min/week Decreased = ˃15 min/week Maintained = ≤±15 min/week Multinomial logistic regression models, adjusted for socio-demographic characteristics Multinomial logistic regression was used to examine the associations between behaviour-specific baseline eTPB constructs and change in time spent a) walking for transport, b) cycling for transport, c) walking for recreation, and d) cycling for recreation after one and two years, separately. For each behavioural outcome three models were fitted: (1) a ‘standard’ TPB model (including attitude, PBC, subjective norm and intention at baseline); (2) an extended TPB model (eTPB) (including baseline TPB scores and baseline habit and visibility); and (3) an eTPB model with additional adjustment for socio-demographic variables (sex, age, ethnicity, education, household income, and access to a motor vehicle) and time spent engaging in the behaviour of interest at baseline (e.g. baseline walking for transport in models of change in walking for transport).

Results 1-year sample, N = 1,796 / 2-year sample, N = 1,465 Time spent walking increased more than time spent cycling Limited support for eTPB as a whole All eTPB constructs except subjective norms were associated with changes Focus today is on results from 2-year sample

Walking for Recreation Walking for Transport + Attitude * + Habit ** - Intention †* Walking for Recreation + Habit *** - Attitude * + Intention * + Habit * Cycling for Transport + PBC * + Habit * Cycling for Recreation - Visibility * Striped green box indicates an increase, red striped box indicates a decrease in reported time spent engaged in behaviour. Fully adjusted for socio-demographic factors: sex, ethnicity, education, household income, access to a motor vehicle. * p < 0.05; ** p < 0.01; *** p < 0.001. † Negative intention to walk more = less likely to increase time spent walking for transport. PBC = Perceived behavioural control. Results based on 2-year follow-up sample (N=1,465).

Conclusions One of the first studies to examine walking and cycling behaviour change using eTPB. Limited support for eTPB model as a whole. Specific individual constructs associated with positive changes in walking and cycling outcomes. Caution advised – investigation of possible influence of wider socio-ecological factors beyond the remit of this study.

Messages for policy and practice Future interventions to promote walking and cycling through individually delivered approaches might consider fostering the development of positive attitudes, intentions and habits for these behaviours. Image: Courtesy of Sustrans

Acknowledgements This paper was written on behalf of the iConnect consortium (www.iconnect.ac.uk; Christian Brand, Fiona Bull, Ashley Cooper, Andy Day, Nanette Mutrie, David Ogilvie, Jane Powell, John Preston and Harry Rutter). The iConnect consortium was funded by the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC). Jenna Panter and David Ogilvie are supported by the Medical Research Council (unit programme number MC_UU_12015/6) and David Ogilvie was also supported by the Centre for Diet and Activity Research (CEDAR), a UKCRC Public Health Research Centre of Excellence. Funding from the British Heart Foundation, Economic and Social Research Council, Medical Research Council, National Institute for Health Research and the Wellcome Trust, under the auspices of the UK Clinical Research Collaboration, is gratefully acknowledged. We thank the study respondents for their cooperation and the study team led by Karen Ghali for managing the collection of data.

Thank you Questions? For information on iConnect study and study outputs, visit www.iconnect.ac.uk. Contact details: Emma Bird emma.bird@uwe.ac.uk @publichealthUWE (+44) 0117 32 88449