GSUA 2016 The Natural Disaster Damage Assessment of Sichuan Province Based on Grey Fixed Weight Cluster Tianxiang Yao, Wenrong Cheng, Hong Gao Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology

Abstract In this paper, the data of the disaster loss in 2000-2012 occurred in Sichuan Province was used. We see the disaster loss system of Sichuan as a gray system, select five indicators: the number of deaths, total affected area, collapsed houses, damaged houses, the direct economic losses and use gray fixed weight clustering approach to its cluster analysis. We conclude that the large famine is 2008,2010,2011; the famine is 2001,2004,2005,2006,2007,2009,2012; the small famine is 2000,2002,2003 year. Gray correlation analysis method is used to determine the gray fixed weight clustering weights to reduce the impact of human factors. We provides a new method to determine the weight when evaluate a natural disaster damage. Finally, we make ​​recommendations in the disaster prevention and mitigation of Sichuan. In order to be able to disaster prevention, mitigation measures developed to provide a reliable future reference.

1. Introduction In mid-January to early February 2008, the southern most parts of China suffered a rare snow disaster, transportation was severely hampered and the power facilities was severely damaged, mass production and life was seriously affected, direct economic losses caused by disasters reached 151.65 billion Yuan. The Richter 8.0 earthquake happened in Wenchuan On May 12th,2008, the maximum intensity reached 11 degrees, resulting that 69227 compatriots were killed, 17923 missing compatriots, and the direct economic losses was more than 7865 Yuan. This shows the severity of natural disasters.

1. Introduction Frequent occurrence of natural disasters caused huge economic losses to local (Jun Zhang et al. 2012). Direct economic losses caused by natural disasters breakthrough 40 billion Yuan in 2012, while there was 8.08 billion Yuan in 2000. The direct economic loss value in 2012 was almost five times in 2000. It shows the amazing growth rate. Economic losses caused by natural disasters in Sichuan Province in 2012 accounted for 1.69 percent due to the gross regional product that year.

1. Introduction The disaster in Sichuan province is serious, but for natural disaster research literature is rarely about Sichuan Province. Its natural disaster damage assessment literature is less. Because factors disaster losses in the system is not fully understood by people and the relationship between these factors is not entirely clear. Therefore, this paper will see the Sichuan disaster losses system as a gray system. We selected these five indicators: the number of deaths, total affected area, collapsed houses, damaged houses, the direct economic losses. This paper uses gray fixed weight clustering approach to analysis the loss of natural disasters in Sichuan Province between 2001and 2013, also sorts the same level of the year in accordance with the degree of hazard size (Xiang Li et al. 1999).This article uses the gray correlation analysis method that doesn’t require large sample of data, the distribution law requirements, and only requires a small amount of calculation to determine the right weight gray fixed weight clustering. This approach has the objective to avoid problems due to personal experience to determine the weight of subjectivity, also makes up the gray fixed weight clustering in determining the weights can not be accurately enough to get expert’s advice. In order to be able to disaster prevention, mitigation measures developed to provide a reliable future reference.

2. Establish model

3. Data Sources and Analysis

4. Empirical Analysis

Although the three years 2008, 2010, and 2011 are the major natural disaster year, the gray fixed weight clustering coefficient in 2008 is significantly far greater than in 2010 and 2011. It is also very consistent with the actual. The Wenchuan earthquake in Sichuan has brought great misfortune and loss to the local people. The seven years which belong to in the medium-sized disaster, if arranged in descending order according to the extent of the disaster is 2012, 2009, 2006, 2005, 2001, 2004, 2007 and the disaster in each year has almost equal size. The three year which belongs to the small disaster, if arranged in descending order according to the extent of the disaster is 2000, 2002, 2003. There is no small disaster in Sichuan Province among natural disasters occurred in 2000-2012.

5 Conclusions

5 Policy recommendations

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