Duncan Green Swanwick October 2012 From Poverty to Power Duncan Green Swanwick October 2012

Why 5 years? From Poverty to Power 2008 Active Citizens and Effective States can change the world ‘How change happens’ as key theme The nightmare of authorship Three big shocks

Global Financial Crisis

Global food price spike

The Arab Spring

New thinking on development The location of poverty: LICs (external: aid, poverty) MICs (internal: equity, social contract) Fragile and Conflict Affected States Women for Development v Development for Women

New thinking cont’d The nature of poverty Political context Volatility, vulnerability and risk Wellbeing and social harmony Chronic v transitory poverty Political context Multipolar World > the G20 Reaffirmation of the National

New thinking cont’d Churning Demography Waves of Technology peak child; migration; youth and age bulges; North->South issues; urbanization Waves of Technology

And a big rethink on the environment …and they called the area in the middle of the circle ‘a safe operating space for humanity’. (this diagram is just the same as the last one, but it zooms in on the green circle at the middle of the previous picture) That space may be environmentally safe, but it could also be deeply socially unjust, leaving many people living in poverty and facing extreme inequality.

A safe and just space for humanity So how about adding the idea of social boundaries to the picture. Just as there in an environmental ceiling, above which lies unacceptable environmental degradation, (4) so too there is a social foundation, below which lies unacceptable human deprivation. What should the dimensions of deprivation be? Human rights are the cornerstone for defining that – and identifying the most critical priorities is at the heart of debate about what comes after the Millennium Development Goals. But one early indication of emerging consensus on those priorities comes from what governments have put forward in the run-up to the UN’s Rio+20 Conference on Environment and Development. The top priorities that governments have raised form these 11 social dimensions, such as freedom from hunger, from income poverty and energy poverty, from gender inequality, from ill-health and illiteracy. Between the social foundation and the environmental ceiling lies a space – shaped like a doughnut – which is the safe and just space for humanity. If economic development were inclusive and sustainable, it would bring humanity into this space, and allow us to thrive there.

Falling far below the social foundation Rockstrom and the other scientists estimate that humanity has already crossed at least 3 of the 9 planetary boundaries – for climate change, for nitrogen use, and for biodiversity loss. Likewise, data show that humanity is falling far below the social foundation on every dimension for which indicators are available: for example 13% don’t have enough to eat, 19% live without electricity, and 21% live in income poverty.

ENDING Poverty: no pressure on the planet End income poverty for all: 0.2% of global income End hunger for all: 3% of global food supply But the really striking story here is that ending these deprivations need put no pressure on planetary boundaries. Meeting the calorie needs of everyone living with hunger would take just 3% of today’s global food supply. (original paper said 1% then FAO changed their methodology so it’s 3% - pitch that against the fact that 30% of the world’s food supply is lost, wasted or thrown away in the supply chain…) Getting electricity to all who live without it could be done by adding less than 1% to global carbon emissions. (that’s great news, it means that ending energy poverty and tackling climate change are essentially separate problems) And ensuring that no one lives in income poverty would require just a fraction of 1% of global income. It’s wealth, not poverty, that’s putting this planet under pressure. Sources for these stats: Food: based on the FAO database on food deficits, personal correspondence on the update Income: based on calculations done by economists at the Brookings Institute (see full reference in paper) Electricity: based on calculations done by the International Energy Agency in its Energy For All report (see full paper for reference) Electricity for all: 1% of global CO2 emissions

So what did FP2P get right/wrong? Active citizens and effective states ‘The national’ > global, but...... Climate change/boundaries a game changer (and a present not future threat) Financial system remains a huge threat History happens faster than you expect How change happens is next book

“In telling us what can be achieved by ordinary people through organised action, this book generates hope even as it enhances understanding of what is involved in the removal of poverty.” Amartya Sen Publication date: 23rd Oct 2012 Pre-order your copy now from www.developmentbookshop.com/fp2p

But blogging is more fun....