Towards understanding and operational early warning of the Adriatic meteotsunamis: Project MESSI Jadranka Šepić1, Ivica Vilibić1, Clea Denamiel1, Hrvoje Mihanović1, Stipe Muslim1, Martina Tudor2, Damir Ivanković1, Dalibor Jelavić1, Vedrana Kovačević3, Toni Mašće1, Vlado Dadić1, Miro Gačić3, Kristian Horvath2, Sebastian Monserrat4, Alexander Rabinovich5,6, Maja Telišman-Prtenjak7 1 Institute of Oceanography and Fisheries, Split, Croatia 2 Meteorological and Hydrological Service, Zagreb, Croatia 3 Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale (OGS), Sgonico, Italy 4 Department of Physics, University of the Balearic Islands, Palma de Mallorca, Spain 5 P.P. Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia 6 Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Institute of Ocean Sciences, Sidney BC, Canada 7 Faculty of Science, University of Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia About meteotsunamis World hotspots Connection to synoptics MeEWS architecture Concluding remarks

Project Title: Meteotsunamis, destructive long ocean waves in the tsunami frequency band: from observations and simulations towards a warning system (MESSI) Principal Investigator: Jadranka Šepić Co-Principal Investigator: Miro Gačić Funding: Unity Through Knowledge Fund Budget: 1.806.395,11 HRK (1.353.295,11 HRK - UKF) Project Duration: 15 December 2015 – 14 December 2017 Involved Institution: Institute of Oceanography and Fisheries, (Split, Croatia); Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale (Trieste, Italy); Meteorological and Hydrological Service (Zagreb, Croatia); University of the Balearic Islands (Palma de Mallorca, Spain); International Tsunami Research, Inc. (Victoria, BC, Canada)

About meteotsunamis Well, I don’t know how many of you heard about meteotsunamis, destructive long ocean waves in the tsunami frequency band Ciutadella, Balearic Islands, 15 June 2006 Vela Luka, Adriatic Sea, 21 June 1978 Variance and range of nonseismic high-frequency sea level oscillations (Vilibic and Sepic, Sci Rep, 2017) Sea level range over frequencies at Fremantle, Australia (courtesy of C. Pattiaratchi)

About meteotsunamis Meteorological tsunamis are long oceanic waves that have approximately the same spatial and temporal scales as ordinary tsunamis, and can affect coastal regions in a similar destructive way, but are generated not by underwater earthquakes, volcanic explosions or landslides, but by atmospheric disturbances (hurricanes, frontal passages, squall lines, internal atmospheric waves or by jumps of atmospheric pressure). Munk [1962]: ‘…The most conspicuous thing about long waves in the open ocean is their absence’ Tsunami and meteotsunami records (Monserrat et al., NHESS, 2006) Meteotsunamigenic air pressure disturbances Sea level record in Split during the 1978 Vela Luka meteotsunami Tsunami and meteotsunami spectra

About meteotsunamis The story of meteotsunami dynamics in a single graph Šepić et al., Sci Rep, 2015

World hotspots The science of meteotsunamis evolved during the last decades

World hotspots Derecho of 29-30 June 2012 Derecho of 29 June 2012 produced all-time highest June or July wind gusts. Five million people lost power and 22 were killed. The derecho of June 2012 traveled approximately 700 miles in twelve hours, inflicting untold damage and hardship along a heavily populated corridor through the Midwest and Mid Atlantic states.

World hotspots Meteotsunami in the Great Lakes and on the Atlantic coast of the USA generated by derecho of 29-30 June 2012 Šepić and Rabinovich, Nat Hazards, 2014

World hotspots Ciutadella, Spain, 15 June 2006 5-m waves at the top of the bay, strong currents Tens of sunk and damaged yachts, loss of ~30 MEuro. Monserrat et al., NHESS, 2006

World hotspots 27 June 2014: 2-m wave injured 12 people in Odessa Due to Ukrainian situation, extraordinary explanations flooded the media

World hotspots Yet, it was one of the Mediterranean and Black Sea multi-meteotsunamis of 23-27 June 2014 27/06/2014 25-26/06/2014 25/06/2014 22-23/06/2014 Ciutadella

World hotspots Exceptional events may occur over thousand of kilometres A series of destructive meteotsunamis hit the Mediterranean and Black Sea, following a peculiar atmospheric setting at synoptic scale Šepić et al., Sci. Rep., 2015

Wave heights were up to 6 m, typical period was about 20 min! World hotspots Meteotsunami („šćiga”) in Vela Luka, Croatia, on 21 June 1978 Wave heights were up to 6 m, typical period was about 20 min!

World hotspots Panama City, FL Panama City Beach, FL Rovinj, Croatia Meteotsunami in Gulf od Mexico, 28 March 2014 Panama City, FL 28 March 2014 29 March 2014 Panama City Beach, FL Wave height ~1.4 m Period ~10 min Meteotsunami in Brazil Praya-do-Casino, Brazil, 9 February 2014 Rovinj, Croatia

Connection to synoptics The Mediterranean event of 22-27 June 2014 was connected to a propagating upper troposphere atmospheric storm, which were favourable for generation of ducted intense air pressure oscillations Šepić et al., Sci. Rep., 2015

Connection to synoptics Šepić et al., PO, 2015 Vilibić and Šepić, Sci Rep, 2017 In general, high-frequency sea level oscillations in the Mediterranean and most of the World (not only meteotsunamis) may be attributed to synoptic patterns

Connection to synoptics *** GRL paper ***

MeEWS architecture General concept of a meteotsunami warning system (Vilibić et al., Front Mar Sci, 2016)

MeEWS architecture Three modules of the Adriatic meteotsunami early warning system (MeEWS): (1) synoptic warning module (2) probabilistic premodelling module (3) real-time monitoring module Wish her to be operational in early 2018! *** a flow diagram here ***

MeEWS architecture Synoptic warning module – 7 days warning in advance Based on computation of the synoptic meteotsunami index for the middle Adriatic – still need longer 1-min sea level measurements at hot spots for doing proper statistics

MeEWS architecture Probabilistic premodelling module – 2 days warning in advance The modelling strategy is twofold: (1) the deterministic generation of meteotsunamis offshore is obtain with an operational atmosphere-ocean model of the Adriatic Sea at 1km spatial resolution based on the state-of-the-art fully coupled COAWST model, while (2) the coastal risk (maximum elevation and currents) is statistically given via the application of the Pseudo Spectral Approximation (PSA) method with the pressure field and the manning’s coefficient defined as a stochastic processes used to force the 6,401 high-resolution ADCIRC simulations Details in the poster P14 by Clea Denamiel!

MESSI observational network MeEWS architecture Real-time monitoring module – an hour warning in advance Detection of meteotsunamigenic air pressure disturbances – intensity, speed and propagation direction Then, the best simulation is chosen to estimate the hazard Split Brač Stari Grad Vis Svetac Vela Luka Sobra Ortona Palagruža Tremiti Vieste Ocean-atmospheric Atmospheric BPR MESSI observational network

Conclusions and perspectives MESSI project major achievements: Better knowledge on meteotsunami source and propagation, in the Adriatic and worldwide A step in observational Adriatic network Design of the multi-level meteotsunami early warning system Innovative methodology introduced in geosciences for probabilistic hazard estimates ( PSA method) Future steps: Towards operability of the proposed MeEWS Towards validation of the system