Indonesian Elections
How does the system work? Indonesia's parliamentary and presidential elections
Indonesia went to the polls twice in 2014, for both parliamentary and presidential elections. It would be the fourth time Indonesia had held elections since President Suharto resigned in 1998 after 30 years in power, amid violent anti-government protests. The parliamentary election - held on April 9, 2014- elected members for both the national and regional legislatures.
Parties in Indonesia Pluralist Islamic Parties ‘Nationalist’ Parties Islamist Parties
‘Nationalist’ Parties PD (Democrat Party) was created as electoral vehicle for SBY PDI-P (Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle) Golkar Hanura Gerindra
Two types: ‘pluralist’ and Islamist Islamic Parties Two types: ‘pluralist’ and Islamist Pluralist Islamic parties rely on support of mainstream Islamic organisations and use Islamic symbols but do not promote sharia agendas Formal ideological basis is Pancasila, not Islam Islamist parties have more ideological Islamic agenda, including support for sharia implementation Often more exclusivist in orientation
Pluralist Islamic parties PKB (National Awakening Party) founded by Abdurrahman Wahid (Gus Dur) and based on Nahdlatul Ulama community PAN (National Mandate Party) founded by Amien Rais and based on Muhammadiyah community
Islamist Parties PPP (United Development Party) based on both NU and Muhammadiyah communities PBB (Crescent Star Party) led by Forestry Minister MS Kaban PKS (Prosperous Justice Party) is most interesting of Islamist parties
Presidential Elections Importance of the 20%-25% thresholds for nominating candidates Limits tickets to 2 or 3 Possibility of only one pair of candidates All parties waiting for legislative election results before finalising tickets Highly fluid situation; few parties willing to commit themselves at this stage
Presidential Election in 2014 Dynamics of Change Presidential Election in 2014 A New Voter 1/3 of electorate (60m people) are first-time participants in 2014 - not loyal to any political party. Requires new ways to reach out. An entrenched elite controlling political parties has been behind the setting of high barriers-to-entry for presidential candidates through electoral laws. The Oligarchs The Jokowi Factor Huge surprise from Joko Widodo’ victory to be Jakarta governer, served as a wake-up call for the major political parties. A new figure with a common touch and strong connection with the broad masses Fluid Political Environment A new Voter - Around one-third of the electorate or over 60 million people will be first-time participants in the 2014 legislative and presidential elections, and these young voters are not loyal card-carrying members of any political party. Candidates and their strategists will need to think about new ways to reach out and tap into the collective imaginations of the new voter or pay the consequences. The Oligarch - An entrenched elite controlling political parties has been behind the setting of high barriers-to-entry for presidential candidates through electoral laws. Dynamics of Change - For now, the apparent candidates are PDI-P’s Joko Widodo, Golkar’s Aburizal Bakrie and Gerindra’s Prabowo Subianto. If elections were held today, the most likely winner would be Joko Widodo, or “Jokowi”. A Jokowi victory would signal the beginning of change in Indonesian politics. The Jokowi Factor - The victory of Joko Widodo in the Jakarta gubernatorial election was a huge surprise to the political elite. They underestimated the appeal of his candidacy, and his rise in the national popularity polls has served as a wake-up call for the major political parties, i.e. that the electorate aspires for a new generation of politicians with a common touch and a strong connection with the broad masses. Apparent candidates: PDI-P’s Joko Widodo, Golkar Aburizal Bakrie, Gerindra’s Prabowo Subianto. A Jokowi’s victory would signal the beginning of change in Indonesian Politics
The Big Questions Critical challenges for Joko Widodo or “Jokowi”, the front runner How to maintain popular appeal? Jokowi’s opponent will be using all means to attack his image as an effective and clean leader. Who would be the ideal coalition partners? The choice of coalition partners needs to be strategic to guarantee victory. Who is the right running mate? The choice of VP for PDI-P will influence voter decisions. Tough challenges faced by Prabowo Subianto, currently pooling second How to pass the threshold? First, a vote for Gerindra party is a vote for his presidency; and second, finding willing and capable coalition partners. How to get the ‘right’ running mate? To find the one that can compensate for his weaknesses and connect with the electorate. Aburizal Bakrie, the least popular candidate Victory is not the point. He probably knows he can’t win, but his main objective is to remain as chairman of Golkar and therefore retain his political influence (and protect his business empire).
In Your Opinion Does Indonesia still need Presidential Election? Do you think that the president chosen by most people in Indonesia guaranted to be the best one? How about if the President chosen does not care the people after election? How to handle such a situation?
How about Parliamentary Elections? Does Indonesia still need Parliamentary Election? When the candidates elected, do they realize all they program? What are the advantages and disadvantages of holding Parliamentary Elections?