Volume 389, Issue 10076, Pages 1323-1335 (April 2017) Future life expectancy in 35 industrialised countries: projections with a Bayesian model ensemble  Vasilis Kontis, PhD, James E Bennett, PhD, Colin D Mathers, PhD, Guangquan Li, PhD, Kyle Foreman, PhD, Prof Majid Ezzati, FMedSci  The Lancet  Volume 389, Issue 10076, Pages 1323-1335 (April 2017) DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(16)32381-9 Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY license Terms and Conditions

Figure 1 Posterior distribution of projected change in life expectancy at birth from 2010 to 2030 Red dots show the posterior medians. Countries are ordered vertically by median projected increase from largest (at the top) to smallest (at the bottom). The Lancet 2017 389, 1323-1335DOI: (10.1016/S0140-6736(16)32381-9) Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY license Terms and Conditions

Figure 2 Women's life expectancy at birth in 2010 and 2030 (Left) Posterior distribution of life expectancy and its median value. Red dots show the posterior medians. (Right) Probability distribution for the country's rank. See the appendix (p 36) for numerical values. Countries are ordered vertically by median life expectancy from largest (at the top) to smallest (at the bottom). The Lancet 2017 389, 1323-1335DOI: (10.1016/S0140-6736(16)32381-9) Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY license Terms and Conditions

Figure 3 Men's life expectancy at birth in 2010 and 2030 (Left) Posterior distribution of life expectancy and its median value. Red dots show the posterior medians. (Right) Probability distribution for the country's rank. See the appendix (p 36) for numerical values. Countries are ordered vertically by median life expectancy from largest (at the top) to smallest (at the bottom). The Lancet 2017 389, 1323-1335DOI: (10.1016/S0140-6736(16)32381-9) Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY license Terms and Conditions

Figure 4 Trends in life expectancy at birth, life expectancy at age 65 years, and the probability of dying before age 70 years in countries that have attained, or are projected to attain, the highest life expectancy or lowest probability of dying before age 70 years in at least 1 year from 1985 to 2030 The Lancet 2017 389, 1323-1335DOI: (10.1016/S0140-6736(16)32381-9) Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY license Terms and Conditions

Figure 5 Life expectancy difference between women and men in 2030 versus 2010 The points show the difference of posterior median life expectancy at birth between women and men in 2030 and 2010. The colour of each point denotes the country's geographical region. The Lancet 2017 389, 1323-1335DOI: (10.1016/S0140-6736(16)32381-9) Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY license Terms and Conditions

Figure 6 Women's life expectancy at age 65 years in 2010 and 2030 (Left) Posterior distribution of life expectancy at age 65 years and its median value. Red dots show the posterior medians. (Right) Probability distribution for the country's rank. See the appendix (p 37) for numerical values. The Lancet 2017 389, 1323-1335DOI: (10.1016/S0140-6736(16)32381-9) Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY license Terms and Conditions

Figure 7 Men's life expectancy at age 65 years in 2010 and 2030 (Left) Posterior distribution of life expectancy at age 65 years and its median value. Red dots show the posterior medians.(Right) Probability distribution for the country's rank. See the appendix (p 37) for numerical values. The Lancet 2017 389, 1323-1335DOI: (10.1016/S0140-6736(16)32381-9) Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY license Terms and Conditions

Figure 8 Contributions of mortality decline in three age groups (0–29 years, 30–64 years, and 65 years and older) towards the projected increase in life expectancy at birth The Lancet 2017 389, 1323-1335DOI: (10.1016/S0140-6736(16)32381-9) Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY license Terms and Conditions