NMME Update High Frequency Data Online – and Growing

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Verification Activity in Sub-seasonal Forecasting at JMA 1 Climate Prediction Division / JMA Yuhei Takaya WWRP/THORPEX/WCRP Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Implementation.

Advertisements

Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss Extended range forecasts at MeteoSwiss: User experience.

Slide 1 October 2011 Verification for polar regions  Scores computed for polewards of 65°  NB proposed for CBS is polewards of 60°  Verification at.

Mei Xu, Jamie Wolff and Michelle Harrold National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Research Applications Laboratory (RAL) and Developmental Testbed.

Consolidated Seasonal Rainfall Guidance for Africa, November 2013 Initial Conditions Issued 7 November 2013 Forecast maps Forecast Background – ENSO update.

Seasonal Climate Predictability over NAME Region Jae-Kyung E. Schemm CPC/NCEP/NWS/NOAA NAME Science Working Group Meeting 5 Puerto Vallarta, Mexico Nov.

CFSv2 monthly mean forecast skill December, 2010.

Assessment of CFSv2 hindcast (seasonal mean) CPC/NCEP/NOAA Jan 2011.

Consolidated Seasonal Rainfall Guidance for Global Tropics, October 2014 Initial Conditions Issued 14 October 2014 Forecast Background – ENSO update –

Consolidated Seasonal Rainfall Guidance for Africa, July 2014 Initial Conditions Issued 14 July 2014 Forecast Background – ENSO update – Current State.

US National Multi-Model (NMME) Intra- Seasonal to Inter-Annual (ISI) Prediction System.

1 Assessment of the CFSv2 real-time seasonal forecasts for 2013 Wanqiu Wang, Mingyue Chen, and Arun Kumar CPC/NCEP/NOAA.

1 Assessment of the CFSv2 real-time seasonal forecasts for Wanqiu Wang, Mingyue Chen, and Arun Kumar CPC/NCEP/NOAA.

Barcelona, 2015 Ocean prediction activites at BSC-IC3 Virginie Guemas and the Climate Forecasting Unit 9 February 2015.

NARCCAP Users Meeting April 2011 Results from NCEP-driven RCMs Overview Based on Mearns et al. (BAMS, 2011) Results from NCEP-driven RCMs Overview Based.

CHFP2: A coupled multi-seasonal forecast system for Canada Bill Merryfield Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis Victoria, BC In collaboration.

Verification of IRI Forecasts Tony Barnston and Shuhua Li.

ENSEMBLES General Assembly Prague, Czech Republic, 14 November 2007 RT5: Evaluation Albert Klein Tank & Elisa Manzini.

Verification of Global Ensemble Forecasts Fanglin Yang Yuejian Zhu, Glenn White, John Derber Environmental Modeling Center National Centers for Environmental.

Application of a Hybrid Dynamical-Statistical Model for Week 3 and 4 Forecast of Atlantic/Pacific Tropical Storm and Hurricane Activity Jae-Kyung E. Schemm.

© Crown copyright Met Office Standard Verification System for Long-range Forecasts (SVSLRF) Richard Graham, Met Office Hadley Centre. With acknowledgements.

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology Verification and Metrics (CAWCR)

NARCCAP WRF Simulations L. Ruby Leung Pacific Northwest National Laboratory NARCCAP Users Meeting February , 2008 Boulder, CO.

“Comparison of model data based ENSO composites and the actual prediction by these models for winter 2015/16.” Model composites (method etc) 6 slides Comparison.

Consolidated Seasonal Rainfall Guidance for Global Tropics, December 2015 Initial Conditions Issued 14 December 2015 Forecast Background – ENSO update.

Multi Model Ensembles CTB Transition Project Team Report Suranjana Saha, EMC (chair) Huug van den Dool, CPC Arun Kumar, CPC February 2007.

1 An Assessment of the CFS real-time forecasts for Wanqiu Wang, Mingyue Chen, and Arun Kumar CPC/NCEP/NOAA.

TRENDS REVISITED Huug van den Dool Climate Prediction Center NCEP/NWS/NOAA CDPW Reno October, 22, 2003 CPCCPC.

1 Recent Reduction in the Area of “EC” in CPC Outlooks and its Relationship to Value Ed O’Lenic, Kenneth Pelman, and David Unger NOAA-NWS-Climate Prediction.

1 An Assessment of the CFS real-time forecasts for Wanqiu Wang, Mingyue Chen, and Arun Kumar CPC/NCEP/NOAA.

EMC Annual Review: CPC’s Forecasts FY 2011 Edward O’Lenic Chief, Operations Branch NOAA-NWS-Climate Prediction Center December 6, 2011.

Seasonal Climate Forecasting for Applied Use in the Western USA Katherine Hegewisch 1, Renaud Barbero 2, John Abatzoglou 1 1 University of Idaho, Department.

1 Summary of CFS ENSO Forecast December 2010 update Mingyue Chen, Wanqiu Wang and Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 1.Latest forecast of Nino3.4 index.

UERRA user workshop, Toulouse, 3./4. Feb 2016Cristian Lussana and Michael Borsche 1 Evaluation software tools Cristian Lussana (2) and Michael Borsche.

1 Assessment of the CFSv2 real-time seasonal forecasts for 2014 Wanqiu Wang, Mingyue Chen, and Arun Kumar CPC/NCEP/NOAA.

Man-sze, CHEUNG Hong Kong Observatory

Notes for Interpretation

Mingyue Chen, Wanqiu Wang, and Arun Kumar

Mike Halpert NOAA-NWS-Climate Prediction Center October, 2011

Skill in the NMME Niño-3.4 Forecasts Following the El Niño

Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System (CanSIPS)

Forecast Outlook for the

Challenges of Seasonal Forecasting: El Niño, La Niña, and La Nada

Developing the next generation ECCC seasonal forecasting system

Teleconnections in MINERVA experiments

Course Evaluation Now online You should have gotten an with link.

Course Evaluation Now online You should have gotten an with link.

NMME Program Development

NMME Phase-II Data: Status

COSMO Priority Project ”Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts”

Multi-model seasonal forecast Operational systems

Shuhua Li and Andrew W. Robertson

Course Evaluation Now online You should have gotten an with link.

Smart Water Fund Products

Progress in Seasonal Forecasting at NCEP

Mechanism of the future precipitation change in dry season at valleys

The Importance of Reforecasts at CPC

University of Washington Center for Science in the Earth System

COSMO-LEPS Verification

Fig. 1 The temporal correlation coefficient (TCC) skill for one-month lead DJF prediction of 2m air temperature obtained from 13 coupled models and.

Christoph Gebhardt, Zied Ben Bouallègue, Michael Buchhold

T. Ose, T. Yasuda (MRI/JMA), Y. Takaya, S. Maeda, C. Kobayashi

Tropical storm intra-seasonal prediction

Comparison of Scores in Model Comparison (MSSS,COR,RMSE and ROC)

Forecasting the European wind drought of winter 2016/17 Case study

GloSea4: the Met Office Seasonal Forecasting System

Environment Canada Monthly and Seasonal Forecasting Systems

Latest Results on Variational Soil Moisture Initialisation

Seasonal common scores plots

Presentation transcript:

NMME Update High Frequency Data Online – and Growing Real-Time Activity Real-Time Verification Additional Variables New Models (GFDL-FLOR) NMME Phase-I Data Sent to CHFP Sub-Seasonal Protocol Experiment Completed Model Updates: CCSM4; GFDL-FLOR

Comparison of CFSv2 skill vs NMME July 1 start DJF SST forecast Ranked Probability Skill Score CFSv2

NMME July 1 start DJF prec forecast RPSS CFSv2

NMME Jan 1 start JJA prec forecast RPSS CFSv2

CFSv2 Has Larger RMSE 64% of the Time T2m RMSE: 20N-20S CFSv2 Has Larger RMSE 64% of the Time Single Model NMME September Starts 0.5-5.5 Lead Times

T2m October Starts JFM Verification

NMME Phase II Continue Real-Time SI Activity Model Upgrades (e.g., CCSM4) Comprehensive Data Server 3 hourly, 6 hourly, 24 hourly, Monthly Means 189 2-d Fields Testing and Evaluating High Frequency Initialization Forecast Protocol Not Real-time (1999-2009; Nov. Only) 45 Days (Starts Every 5-days) Burst vs. Every 6 hours

CCSM3 vs. CCSM4 CCSM4 CCSM3

CCSM3 SST Anomaly Correlation Jan Start, Verifying JFM Jan Start, Verifying JJA CCSM4 SST Anomaly Correlation Jan Start, Verifying JJA

CCSM3 T2m Anomaly Correlation Jan Start, Verifying JFM Jan Start, Verifying JJA CCSM4 T2m Anomaly Correlation Jan Start, Verifying JJA