Not Approved for Public Release USAF Update to DTC SAB Dr. John Zapotocny Chief Scientist AF/A3WX 14 Sep 2016 Not Approved for Public Release

Not Approved for Public Release Overview Mission Overview USAF Model Roadmap Clouds from NWP Exploitation “apps”

Not Approved for Public Release USAF Weather Mission Air Force weather Airmen provide GLOBAL environmental support to DoD (Air Force and Army) and the Intelligence Community Mitigate environmental impacts to operations Resource protection to critical assets Global Power Global Reach Air Ops Agile Combat Support “Air Force weather enables Joint Warfighters to anticipate and exploit the weather...for air, ground, space, cyberspace and intel operations.” – Mission Statement Army Ops Global Vigilance Special Ops Space Weather

Air Force Weather Tiered production flow Not Approved for Public Release Air Force Weather Tiered production flow

Modeling Requirements Not Approved for Public Release Modeling Requirements High Fidelity Clouds & Aerosols are the Driving Requirements Layers of Model (1 x 1 km or better grid spacing) Modeled Clouds Modeled Chemical Constituents Modeled Aerosols DUST Spatial resolution: Horizontal: 1 x 1 km, Vertical: 100m (SFC 5000’) 1km above Temporal resolution: 1hr steps for 0-24hrs, 3hr steps for 12-72hrs, 6hr steps for 72-144hrs Quantify aerosol/cloud “amount” on 1km grid for each layer of model Predict slant path (visible/IR) detection by integrating layered cloud/aerosol forecasts For visual acquisition, output defaults clear line of sight that accounts for aerosols as well as clouds. For IR acquisition, output chemical constituent dependencies per sensor type, target temp, background temp, etc. in addition to slant path clouds, aerosols. 5

GALWEM Global Air-Land Weather Exploitation Model Not Approved for Public Release GALWEM Global Air-Land Weather Exploitation Model 19 Nov 2014 USAF Director of Weather announced plans to adopt the Met Office Unified Model (UM) as the USAF authoritative global numerical weather model citing: Improved support to oversees contingencies by using the same model as many coalition and international allies Improved forecast quality and meets unique military requirements Improved enterprise capability by running the UM’s advanced 4DVar data assimilation system Improved interoperability by standardizing on UM output for machine-to-machine data transfers 30 Mar 2015 USAF Director of Weather assigned the name Global Air-Land Weather Exploitation Model (GALWEM) to the USAF specific implementation of the UM Global Air Land Weather Exploitation Model

GALWEM Forecast Quality Not Approved for Public Release GALWEM Forecast Quality

GALWEM Transition Status Not Approved for Public Release GALWEM Transition Status GALWEM IOC achieved 1 Oct 2015 Run 4x/day at 17km resolution using initial fields from UKMO Used as primary NWP input by all forecasting squadrons Products/Grids available via AFW-WEBS

Not Approved for Public Release *557 WW 557th Weather Wing **GALWEM Global Air-Land Weather Exploitation Model Version of UKMO UM ***JULES Joint UK Land Information Simulator ****PAIS Point Analysis Intelligence System USAF Model Roadmap Implement CLASSIC (UKMO chemical and aerosol model) to support PAIS**** Replace GFS with GALWEM GFS no longer available at 557WW* Couple LIS-JULES*** to GALWEM Decommission WRF 5km and 1.67km windows and implement first GALWEM hi-res regional domain 12km GALWEM Decision on Next Generation Atmospheric Model 17km **GALWEM operational 17 PFLOPS 52 TFLOPS 1 PFLOPS FY14 FY18 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY19 FY20 FY16 FY17 FY15 Decommission WRF regional 45 and 15 km windows Hybrid 4DVar Operational Implement additional regional domains (2-3 per CONOPS) Demonstrate Model-explicit cloud prediction capability GALWEM Ensemble added to GEPS Implement GALWEM regional ensemble for over high priority AORs Potential addition to NUOPC/NAEFS ensembles

USAF R&D/R2O Focus Areas Not Approved for Public Release USAF R&D/R2O Focus Areas Cloud/Obscurant Apps High resolution nowcasts/rapid update runs Slant-path EO impacts Flight Routing Optimization Apps Low level aviation Multi-sensor data fusion for high impact weather events Hydrometerology Apps Streamflow and flooding (OCONUS) Monthly and Seasonal Outlooks and Impact Apps

Continued US involvement Not Approved for Public Release Continued US involvement Ongoing NWP related collaborative opportunities: National Earth System Prediction Center (N-ESPC) ensemble forecasts – NWS, Navy, USAF – contribute GALWEM ensemble members to create statistically improved national ensemble output Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA) – USAF intends to be contribute resources toward Joint Effort for Data Assimilation Integration (JEDI) – emphasis on cloud DA Developmental Test Center (DTC) – Leverage standardized model verification, R2O in cloud data assimilation and forecasting, and validation of unique/specialized DoD apps

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