Energy Investments and Trade Opportunitie Athens, Greece, 8 - 9 October, 2008 The Influence of Fossil Fuels on the Eurasian Economic Community Members’ Foreign Economic Policies Katarzyna Czerewacz 01:28 1 z 16

Energy Investments and Trade Opportunitie Athens, Greece, 8 - 9 October, 2008 Thesis Possesing fuels is the most important factor determining the integration on the teritory of EAEC and foreign economic policies of these countries 01:29 2 of 16

Plan of the presentation Introduction, conditions of integrational Energy Investments and Trade Opportunitie Athens, Greece, 8 - 9 October, 2008 Plan of the presentation Introduction, conditions of integrational processes. 2. An energy dialog between the EU and the EAEC countries. 3. Asia as an alternative for the cooperation with the EU 4. Conclusions, veryfication of the thesis. 01:29 3 of 16

Energy Investments and Trade Opportunitie Athens, Greece, 8 - 9 October, 2008 Introduction Integrational processes are used by many countries in order to change/improve their status on the international arena. 01:29 4 of 16

Energy Investments and Trade Opportunitie Athens, Greece, 8 - 9 October, 2008 The Eurasian Economic Community came into existence on October 10, 2000 from the transformation of the customs union between Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia and Tajikistan, which had existed since 1995. In January 2006, Uzbekistan became a sixth member of the EAEC . 06:00 5 of 16

Dialog between the EU and the EAEC countries Energy Investments and Trade Opportunitie Athens, Greece, 8 - 9 October, 2008 Dialog between the EU and the EAEC countries Energetic security is one of the most important issues connected with energy supply (in any form) for a national economy. 06:00 6 of 16

Figure 1 Primary energy demand In EU-25 Energy Investments and Trade Opportunitie Athens, Greece, 8 - 9 October, 2008 Figure 1 Primary energy demand In EU-25 Sources: Mantzos L., Capros P., Kouvaritakis N., Zeka-Paschou M., (2003), European Energy and Transport Trends To 2030, Part IV, European Commission Directorate General for Energy and Transport, Luxembourg, p.111. 06:00 7 of 16

Energy Investments and Trade Opportunitie Athens, Greece, 8 - 9 October, 2008 Figure 2 Fuel Shares of World Market Energy Use, 2003, 2015, 2030 39 35 33 24 26 27 25 8 9 6 5 Sources: The International Energy Outlook 2007 p. 2 after: 2003: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2003 (May-July 2005), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea/. 2015 and 2030: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2006) Note: Fuel shares may not add to 100 percent due to independent rounding. 06:00 8 of 16

Energy Investments and Trade Opportunitie Athens, Greece, 8 - 9 October, 2008 The International Energy Outlook 2007 projects strong growth for worldwide energy demand, total world consumption of marketed energy expands from 421 quadrillion Btu (British thermal units) in 2003 to 563 quadrillion Btu in 2015 and to 722 quadrillion Btu in 2030 or a 71 percent increase over the 2003 to 2030 period. 06:00 9 of 16

Energy Investments and Trade Opportunitie Athens, Greece, 8 - 9 October, 2008 Figure 3. World Marketed Energy Consumption, 1980 – 2030 (History years: 1980, 1985, 1990, 1995, 2003; Projections years: 2010, 2015, 2020, 2025, 2030) (Quadrillion Btu) Sources: The International Energy Outlook 2006 p. 7 after: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2003 (May-July 2005), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea/. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2006). 06:00 10 of 16

Aevrage annual % change 2003-2030 Table 1. World Marketed Energy Consumption by Country Grouping 2003 – 2030 (Quadrillion Btu) 2003 Aevrage annual % change 2003-2030 Region 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 OECD 243.3 256.1 269.9 281.6 294.5 308.8 1.0 North America 118.3 131.4 139.9 148.4 157.0 166.2 1.3 Europe 78.9 84.4 87.2 88.7 91.3 94.5 0.7 Asia 37.1 40.3 42.8 44.4 46.1 48.0 Non-OECD 186.4 253.6 293.5 331.5 371.0 412.8 3.0 Europe+Eurasia 48.5 56.5 62.8 68.7 74.0 79.0 1.8 83.1 126.2 149.4 172.8 197.1 223.6 3.7 Middle East 19.6 25.0 28.2 31.2 34.3 37.7 2.4 Africa 13.3 17.7 20.5 22.3 24.3 26.8 2.6 C.+Sth America 21.9 32.5 36.5 41.2 45.7 2.8 Total World 420.7 509.7 563.4 613.0 665.4 721.6 2.0 Sources: The International Energy Outlook 2007 p. 7 after: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2003 (May-July 2005), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea/. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2006).

Energy Investments and Trade Opportunitie Athens, Greece, 8 - 9 October, 2008 Conclusions Recently Russia has consistently intensified its activity on the continent of Asia. 06:00 12 of 16

Energy Investments and Trade Opportunitie Athens, Greece, 8 - 9 October, 2008 Conclusions The dialog on energy between the EU and Russia is based on the assumption that the interdependence between these two regions will be growing. 06:00 13 of 16

Energy Investments and Trade Opportunitie Athens, Greece, 8 - 9 October, 2008 Conclusions The Central Asian countries were or are members of all integrational groups appearing on this territory: Common Economic Space, the Eurasian Economic Community GUAM, the Central Asian Economic Community, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the Economic Cooperation Organization and the Organization of Islamic Conference. 06:00 14 of 16

Energy Investments and Trade Opportunitie Athens, Greece, 8 - 9 October, 2008 Conclusions World demand for gas will maintain on the predictable level on condition that no other, alternative, sources of energy appear, whose use will reduce the importance of gas and other fossil fuels for the world power industry. 06:00 15 of 16

Thank you.