New Approaches for Nowcasting Winter

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Presentation transcript:

New Approaches for Nowcasting Winter Road Weather Over a Complex Orography Willi Schmid, meteoradar gmbh Albert Mathis, AnyData ag Urs Keller, MeteoSwiss

Decision making Snow removal / salting Traditional Modern RWIS-stations Weather-forecasts RWIS-stations Weather-forecasts Road-forecast

Road forecast 0-2 hours Advection Precipitation Temperature RWIS-station Road-forecast

Our Goal To develop fully automated procedures, providing Good probability forecasts for critical road parameters Good threshold values for correct decisions

Issues of this presentation Detection of winter precipitation with radar Precipitation type (rain/snow/black ice) from radar/ground data Radar image extrapolation Cloudiness from temperature measurements Surface temperature forecasts from extrapolated cloudiness Risk forecasts snowfall/black ice/freezing rainwater Road state forecasts from radar and ground data Intervention management

Comparison radar – optical sensor on ground Radar and reality Comparison radar – optical sensor on ground Radar-detected precipitation is confirmed on the ground in 65% of all cases. Precipitation on the ground is seen with radar in 35% of all cases Explanation ?

* * * * * * * Fraction of snow in precipitation P = 1 o o o o o o o KSSG – method (Koistinen/Saltikoff/Schmid/Gjertsen) P = 1 T * * T T * T * * T * * o o o o o o o

Melting layer

Validation KSSG method Jan / Feb 2004 KSSG method Radar / Anetz 72 stations Switzerland Temperature/Humidity 10 min Optical sensor PWD11 (Vaisala) 52 stations Canton of Luzerne Rain / snow direct 15 min

KSSG and reality 92.4 % are correct Rain predicted Snow Total observed 3311 29.8% 790 7.1% 4101 59 0.5% 6939 62.5% 6998 3370 7729 11099 100% 92.4 % are correct

Radar image extrapolation

COTREC / Raincast / Raincast+ COTREC radar image extrapolation, ETH 1992 - 1998 Jürg Joss, Li Li, Susanne Mecklenburg Raincast risk forecast rain/hail, ETH, 1999 – 2001 Raincast+ risk forecast snowfall/black ice, 2002 ...

Risk forecast precipitation . Risk 100% 0%

Risk forecast snowfall/snow cover

Thesis Tobias Grimbacher, IACETH, 2004 Cloudiness Thesis Tobias Grimbacher, IACETH, 2004 Temperature 2m above ground Surface temperature

Cloudiness Precipitation Overcast Cloudy Clear

Ground temperature extrapolation Based on extrapolated cloudiness + Reliable method Cheap measurements Errors treatable Extrapolation possible Forecasts 1 hour - Dense network required Need more validation Grimbacher et al. To appear in Meteorol. Appl.

Projects 1999 – 2005 - ... COTREC / RainCast radar image extrapolation Precipitation type rain / snowfall / freezing rain Cloud cover freezing rainwater Intervention management IMWS

IMWS = Intervention management winter service The IMWS project (2003 ...) IMWS = Intervention management winter service Canton of Lucerne, 2003 ... Albert Mathis 13 decision criteria Precipitation Clouds Fog Decision go/nogo Hit rate: better than 95 % !

References www.meteoradar.ch www.sirwec.org