A Consumer’s Guide to Weather Forecasting Information Cliff Mass University of Washington

Being a good weather consumer means Knowing where to get reliable information Knowing what is hype and what is real Knowing the limits of weather prediction Knowing how to read the sky and how to interpret basic weather information

The most common question I am asked

Are the predictions in the Old Farmer’s Almanac Useful?

Absolutely not Nick Bond of UW/NOAA in Seattle evaluated the Almanac’s forecasts over several years Found absolutely no skill. Better off flipping a coin.

Where can you get weather information? Print newspapers Forecasts are generally old and superficial Radio Often old or wrong (except for KNKX on Friday at 9:00 AM) TV Varies substantially in quality Tends to hype storms NOAA weather radio- Straight from the National Weather Service, fairly up to date. Online and mobile Probably the best and most comprehensive source

Newspaper Print Weather Pages Outdated forecasts

NOAA WeatherRadio (good in remote areas, alarm for warnings)

TV Weather Only about half are really meteorologists (i.e., have an actual degree). They are “weathercasters” The weekday ones tend to have stronger backgrounds. Their forecasts for the first few days tend to be very close to the National Weather Service Lots of hype-- “Pinpoint severe weather center” “County by county forecasts” “Doppler radar weather”

Local TV Weather Types with Degrees in Atmospheric Sciences

Online You can get the latest forecasts You can get the raw weather observations (e.g., surface observations, radar) You can look at the forecasts from the computer models. You can view weather cams all over the region You can get deceiving and wrong information that looks compelling.

The National Weather Service: A Good Source

The NWS Forecast Discussion…getting into the mind of the forecaster

Weather.com has very good forecasts—better than the National Weather Service Completely automated. Highly sophisticated statistical improvement of National Weather Service and other forecast models.

Who has the best forecasts? Check forecastadvisor.com

Smartphone Weather Apps Are Very Useful Smartphones are the perfect weather delivery tool Good graphics, they know where you are, good communications, and more…

WeatherChannel App

Radarscope: The Professional’s Choice for Looking at Radar Imagery

Weather Radar Can Change Your Life! NWS Doppler Radar

Weather Radar Can Help You Plan Outdoor Recreation Since the National Weather Service put the Camano Island weather radar in place during the early 90s, I rarely get seriously soaked while commuting by bicycle. With a little knowledge of NW precipitation and weather radar, you can protect yourself too.

Important Precipitation Info It is RARELY uniform, even on rainy days. If you can shift you ride or outdoor activity by 10-15 minutes you can often miss the heavy stuff. Shift by 30-60 minutes you can usually do so. Moving a few miles can mean the difference between rain and dry.

Example: 4:48 PM -Heavy rain…but waiting will be rewarded in Seattle.

5:40 PM: Absolutely Dry

Different Situations After fronts go through we often have showers and sun breaks. Radar allows you to stay in the breaks!

Showers and Sun breaks, wait a few minutes for heavy rain to end

The Most Difficult Situation is When a Broad Pacific Front or Storm is Over Us The Absolute Worst: Pineapple Express! Dec 3, 2007 But EVEN THEN, there were dry spots in the rain shadow and some places had less rain

20% chance of rain means? It will rain over 20% of the area? It will rain 20% of the time There is a 20% chance it will rain at a specific point over some period. Most people are not sure

The Correct Answer There is a 20% chance it will rain at a specific point over some period (often 12 hours).