The Monetary-Financial Environment

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Presentation transcript:

Main economic background data to the Monetary Committee’s Interest Rate decision July 10, 2017

The Monetary-Financial Environment

The inflation rate stabilized slightly below the target range, following a continued increase. It is expected to decline before resuming its increase. מקור: למ"ס ועיבודי בנק ישראל מקור: למ"ס ועיבודי בנק ישראל SOURCE: Based on Central Bureau of Statistics.

The effect of administrative price reductions and energy price declines—which contributed to the low inflation in the past two years—dissipated. מקור: למ"ס ועיבודי בנק ישראל מקור: למ"ס ועיבודי בנק ישראל SOURCE: Based on Central Bureau of Statistics.

Inflation in tradable goods continues to increase, but remains negative. Inflation in nontradable goods moderated but remains within the target range. מקור: למ"ס ועיבודי בנק ישראל מקור: למ"ס ועיבודי בנק ישראל As of 2017, the tradable goods index accounts for 36.6 percent of the over-all index, while the nontradable goods index accounts for 63.4 percent. SOURCE: Bank of Israel.

Previous interest rate decision Inflation in tradable goods remains negative, but continues to increase. Inflation in nontradable goods moderated. מקור: למ"ס ועיבודי בנק ישראל מקור: למ"ס ועיבודי בנק ישראל Previous interest rate decision SOURCE: Bank of Israel.

Previous interest rate decision Medium-term expectations declined, and long-term expectations remain stable. מקור: למ"ס ועיבודי בנק ישראל מקור: למ"ס ועיבודי בנק ישראל Previous interest rate decision SOURCE: Bank of Israel.

Previous interest rate decision The shekel continued to appreciate, but more moderately than in previous months. מקור: למ"ס ועיבודי בנק ישראל מקור: למ"ס ועיבודי בנק ישראל Previous interest rate decision SOURCE: Bank of Israel

It is still too early to determine whether the increases in home prices have halted. מקור: למ"ס ועיבודי בנק ישראל מקור: למ"ס ועיבודי בנק ישראל SOURCE: Bank of Israel.

Stabilization in mortgage interest rate with continued decline in new mortgage volume. מקור: למ"ס ועיבודי בנק ישראל מקור: למ"ס ועיבודי בנק ישראל SOURCE: Bank of Israel.

Real Economic Activity

The decline in first quarter growth is completely a result of fluctuations in vehicle imports. מקור: למ"ס ועיבודי בנק ישראל SOURCE: Based on Central Bureau of Statistics and BOI.

Initial data from the Companies Survey for Q2 indicate continued growth at a similar rate to the previous year. מקור: למ"ס ועיבודי בנק ישראל מקור: למ"ס ועיבודי בנק ישראל SOURCE: Bank of Israel.

Goods exports continued to disappoint, while imports continued to increase. מקור: למ"ס ועיבודי בנק ישראל מקור: למ"ס ועיבודי בנק ישראל SOURCE: Based on Central Bureau of Statistics.

Services exports increased very rapidly in recent years, while goods exports stagnated. מקור: למ"ס ועיבודי בנק ישראל SOURCE: Based on Central Bureau of Statistics.

The labor market is stable near full employment. מקור: למ"ס ועיבודי בנק ישראל מקור: למ"ס ועיבודי בנק ישראל SOURCE: Central Bureau of Statistics.

There is an acceleration in the rate of wage increases. מקור: למ"ס ועיבודי בנק ישראל מקור: למ"ס ועיבודי בנק ישראל SOURCE: Central Bureau of Statistics.

The global economy

The OECD revised its global growth forecast upward, lowering the forecast for the US and raising the forecast for Europe, Japan and China מקור: למ"ס ועיבודי בנק ישראל מקור: למ"ס ועיבודי בנק ישראל SOURCE: Bloomberg.

The improvement in world trade continues. מקור: למ"ס ועיבודי בנק ישראל מקור: למ"ס ועיבודי בנק ישראל SOURCE: Bloomberg.

Purchasing managers indices worldwide indicate continued positive momentum. מקור: למ"ס ועיבודי בנק ישראל SOURCE: Bloomberg.

Globally, inflation is higher than in Israel but remains below the central bank targets. מקור: למ"ס ועיבודי בנק ישראל SOURCE: Bloomberg.

The increase in fuel prices has been halted. מקור: למ"ס ועיבודי בנק ישראל מקור: למ"ס ועיבודי בנק ישראל SOURCE: Bloomberg.

The interest rate in the US was raised, while accommodative policy continues in the other major economies. מקור: למ"ס ועיבודי בנק ישראל מקור: למ"ס ועיבודי בנק ישראל SOURCE: Bloomberg.

Global equity prices remain high. מקור: למ"ס ועיבודי בנק ישראל מקור: למ"ס ועיבודי בנק ישראל SOURCE: Bloomberg.