Allan Lichtman’s13 Keys to the Presidency

Keys to the Presidency If six or more of the statements are untrue, the incumbent party is predicted to lose the popular vote.

Keys to the Presidency The Keys were derived from an analysis of every presidential election in the history of the current two -party system(that is ,back to the Civil War)

Keys to the Presidency Also,applied retroactively,the system accurately”predicts” the outcome of ever presidential election since the Civil War

Keys to the Presidency KEY 1(Party mandate):After the last midterm election, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S . House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm election .

Keys to the Presidency KEY 2 (Contest):There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination at national convention.(Specifically, the standard is whether the nominee has two thirds of the delegates at the start of the convention)

Keys to the Presidency KEY 3 (Incumbency):The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.

Keys to the Presidency Key 4 (Third party):There is no significant third-party or independent campaign.

Keys to the Presidency KEY 5 (Short-term economy):The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.

Keys to the Presidency KEY 6 (Long-term economy):Per-capita economic growth during the current presidential term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.

Keys to the Presidency Key 7 (Policy change): The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.

Keys to the Presidency Key 8 (Social unrest):There is no sustained social unrest during the term.

Keys to the Presidency Key 9 (Scandal): The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.

Keys to the Presidency Key 10(Foreign/military failure): The incumbent administration has suffered no major failure in foreign or military affairs.

Keys to the Presidency Key 11(Foreign /military success):The incumbent administration has achieved a major success in foreign on military affairs.

Keys to the Presidency Key 12 (Incumbent charisma): The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.

Keys to the Presidency Key 13 (Challenger charisma): The challenging - party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.