Biomass Energy Potentials @ ENERegion Summer School Gilbert Ahamer GIScience, Austrian Academy of Science gilbert.ahamer@oeaw.ac.at Salzburg, 1.7.09

Relevance of „biomass“ BM has several functions for humans: Food Fibre Fuels

Energy – how estimated? (recall “facts III”) % Energy per fuels d/dt (% Energy per fuels) Source: Global Change Data Base

„we“: Modellers and GIS people Both try to meet the quality criteria of up-to-date models As demanded by the scientific communities (else risk) What is the state of the art in modelling? Major vehicle: climate change exercise Historically a suite of models was coupled Consecutively one discipline after the other [IPCC]

Let‘s learn from the „history of modelling“ in climate change business: add viewpoints Discipline by discipline is added in order to compose a consistent „multi-disciplinary“ world view that can be offered to readers, the public, clients Source: IPCC TAR

Approach: Modelling the global carbon cycle & the energy economy „Combined Energy and Biosphere Model“ biospheric part: 2433 grid elements energy part: country scenarios result: Net C balance for CO2 concentration

Modelling methods: the issues Two disciplines are merged by the CEBM: energy economics (E) biosphere (B) The depth of description is symbolized by two peaks

Modelling methods: the scope

Modelling methods: the substances

The annual carbon cycle: „old“ & „new“

Modelling scheme: annual carbon mass flows

Carbon flows and carbon pools

Modelling methods: the stylised ocean

Modelling methods: temperature data

Modelling methods: agricultural productivity

Modelling methods: examples for results

Modelling: sensitivity of energy scenarios „%“ = annual growth of CO2 emissions

Modelling: sensitivity of deforestation scenarios left: complete deforestation till 2100 right: including energy plantations

Modelling methods: population projection Source: IIASA

Modelling: scenario for energy intensity E/GDP = „energy intensity“ of an economy

Modelling results for energy and CO2 CO2 emission  CO2 concentration

5 theoretical biomass energy potentials Agricultural biomass on agricultural areas Energy plantations on agricultural areas Agricultural biomass on natural areas Natural biomass on natural areas (forestry) Natural biomass on natural areas (short rotat.)

Theoretical biomass energy potentials

Theoretical biomass energy potentials

Theoretical biomass energy potentials

Theoretical biomass energy potentials

Theoretical biomass energy potentials

Comparison of energy demand & supply Link (de, 300 p.): http://www.uni-graz.at/globalstudies/deposit/CO2BM_Dissertation.pdf Link (en, 30 p.): http://www.uni-graz.at/globalstudies/1994_International-Journal-of-Global-Energy-Issues_OriginalLayout.pdf

Theoretical potential depends on ... ... What you do with the previously standing biomass... Can scenarios ever come true ;-)

„realistic“ potential ~ 1/10 theoretical pot.

Carbon flows and carbon pools = f(t)

C flows and C pools = f(t) with BM strategies

Results of „B“ = Biomass Biomass will not „save the world“ Biomass energy is a valuable and ready-to-use measure as part of a bundle of measures Do not forget about huge transportation needs Keep in mind necessity for energy conversion Take care in order to ensure carbon neutrality Expand the perception beyond carbon

(C) The case: Austria Salzburg, 1+2..7.09

Several levels of action / legislation EU (directives) National (law, §15a) Regional (energy efficiency in buildings) Local (climate alliance of cities)

Energy & Emission Balance for a City (Graz) Start from census data on m² housing Compute energy demand for heating Compute emissions Scenarios to evaluate potential measures

Energy & Emission Balance for a City (Graz)

Energy & Emission Balance for Austria (CORINAIR) for IPCC & EU

„Toronto Technology Program“ for CO2 Reduction in Austria

Thank you for your attention Salzburg, 1+2..7.09