Solar Events towards the Earth in 2002 B.Schmieder K. Bocchialini (2), M. Menvielle (3), A. Chambodut(4), , N. Cornilleau-Wehrlin (1)D. Fontaine(1),B. Grison (5),C. Lathuillère (6), A. Marchaudon(7), M. Pick(8), F. Pitout(7), S.Régnier(9), N. Vilmer (8), Y. Zouganelis(1) ESWW12 Ostende November 2015

Back and Forth method We propose a statistical analysis covering one year (2002) to investigate the link between SSC (Storm Sudden Commencement), detected by the magnetic observatories on the ground and the Coronal Mass ejection (CME). propagation in a time window ~1 to 5 days (ballistic propagation ballistic between 300 km/s and 1500 km/s) The method is back and forth to find the correct association of events (step 1, step 2, step 3, step1…) ESWW12 Ostende November 2015

Some results obtained in one year of measurements (2002) during the cycle 23 maximum From 35 SSC identified in 2002 51 CME with an identified solar source (if no halo CME has been identified we search for a partial CME) Characterisation of the perturbation ICME recorded at L1 before the SSC Geomagnetic indices Ionosphere (Super Darn, Thermosphere CHAMP) Only a few of in situ magnetosphere observations (Cluster operated until July 2002) ESWW12 Ostende November 2015

Starting point #1 SSC May 23 2002 at 10:18 UT By using the geomagnetic indices (Dst, SYM-H…) SSC day of the year 142 : 22 May SSC Storm Sudden Commencement = compression of the magnetosphere indicating the arrival of the shock. Date; Amplitude; Quality (23-05-2002 10:18; 78 nT; 2) Dst (hour) et SYM-H (1 mn) variations related to the annular magnetospheric currents of the horizontal magnetic component at the Earth surface Value of the minimum; Classification (-109; Intense Storm ) ESWW12 Ostende November 2015

Starting point # 2 Sun: search of CME SOHO 22 05 2002 01:13 UT EIT : 30.4 nm EIT : 19.5 nm Location (881,-319 arcsec) and characteristics of the source region (AR, Filament,Flare) LASCO/SOHO CME : speed , altitude, acceleration , time of exit of the field of view (150 4km/s, 28 Rs, -10.4, 06:50 UT ) ESWW12 Ostende November 2015

Interplanetary Medium at L1 : ACE Satellite Starting point #3 Interplanetary Medium at L1 : ACE Satellite Characteristics of the observations: ICME (Interplanetary CME) or NOT ? t _ssc ICME : increase of V t1: shock t2 : start of the ICME t3 : end of the ICME ESWW12 Ostende November 2015

Ionospheric radars SuperDARN : Polar Cap potential through the pole Global convection maps Ionospheric radars SuperDARN : Polar Cap potential through the pole Maximum value of the PCP (85-95) Maximum time after the SSC (01:15) Nb of points (quality) (100-200) SSC ESWW12 Ostende November 2015

Thermosphere : Measurements of the satellite CHAMP (400 km) The measurements are normalised by a quiet time model Coef. = 2 => augmentation de 100% of the density. Weak signal for Dst >-15 otherwise the density increases by a factor 1.5 to 2.5 (good agreement with the study of Krauss et al (2015) ESWW12 Ostende November 2015

Characteristics of 35 SSC sources: 51 CME and solar source Type of SSC origin 1 Solar source multi sources No solar souce Total CMEH 6 CMEN 5 2 CMEN,H ; 3 sources 13 +1 14 CIR -SIR No ID 11 10 35 25 With 4 false detections (ICME not detected in L1) 26 Halo CMEs only 16 impacted the Earth with SSCs . ESWW12 Ostende November 2015

Comparison SSC at L1 Characteristics at L1 Nb Mean SSC amplitude > 35 nT Large Dst -200<.<-100 nT Intense storms Medium Dst -100<.< -50 nT Moderate storms Weak Dst > -50 nT Weak storms ICME 17 7** 8** 4 5 CIR-SIR * OTHER (SW) UNCLEAR ICME 6 1 3 Total 31 *** * Co rotating interaction region (SIR visible in more than one rotation) ** Only two events with large amplitude (> 35 nT) correspond to large Dst (not link to the shock but to the compression) *** 31 for 35 SSC because 4 pairs of sscs ESWW12 Ostende November 2015

Conclusions and perspectives (1) From the Sun to the Earth Association CME – SSC: One year of data during the solar maximum; Relatively low number for a good statistic Results: surprising.. about the halo CME… 35 SSC 51 CME (26 halo + 25 non halo) ESWW12 Ostende November 2015

Conclusions and perspectives (2) 35 SSC 25 SSC associated with CME and identified solar source; 4 CIR; 5 unclear 11 SSC clear identified with one CME 14 25 SSC are due to multiple CMEs (can explain the « unclear » case at L1) L1 : 19 ICME identifiable 5 SSC with no identified solar source (no CME neither CIR) Bocchialini et al 2016 (in preparation) – web site ESWW12 Ostende November 2015

Conclusions and perspectives (3) The 2002 data are in a data base (1996_2007) at ias.u-psud.fr which should publish in a paper (in preparation) We need to increase the statistic base: To complete the results in 2002 with results of other papers. To use a data base To complete with data of new satellites in operation since 2007 (STEREO..) Future study : SSC without CME Atelier Météo Meudon juin 2015 NCW

Thank for your attention Acknowledgment: PNST .

Vitesse de propagation CME vers L1 Après identification, calcul du coefficient de freinage dans le modèle avec freinage: Coefficient (10-7 km-1) 0.1-0.5 0.5-1.0 1.0-1.5 >1.5 Nb cas 10 8 4 1 Le calcul n’a pu se faire que sur 23 cas Pas de corrélation trouvée avec la vitesse d’éjection  regarder la masse ESWW12 Ostende November 2015

Back and Forth method It is a classical method to follow a solar event towards the Earth and see its geoeffectiveness. Many case studies exist (i.e. Hanuise et al, 2006), some statistics have been performed selecting only halo CMEs (Gopalswamy et al, 2009, Cid et al, 2012) We propose a statistical analysis covering one year (2002) to investigate the link between SSC (Storm Sudden Commencement), detected by the magnetic observatories on the ground and the Coronal Mass ejection (CME). The method is back and forth to find the correct association of events ESWW12 Ostende November 2015

X ray Flux measured by GOES C Class W/m2 ESWW12 Ostende November 2015

Radio bursts in the Solar Wind at L1 Type II: associated with a shock Type IV: associated by a CME, important ejection ESWW12 Ostende November 2015

Some results Association YES/NOT with CME  SSC propagation in a time window ~1 to 5 days (ballistic propagation ballistic between 300 km/s and 1500 km/s) When there is an association, work on the model of propagation using a drag model. If you know the velocity at the starting point and the velocity at the arrival the drag coefficient Ss can be determined with more precision. Using empiric models does not give better results ESWW12 Ostende November 2015

Propagation speed CME at L1 After identification, drag coefficient for a drag model Coefficient (10-7 km-1) 0.1-0.5 0.5-1.0 1.0-1.5 >1.5 Case Number 10 8 4 1 Only 23 cases of ejections have been considered. No correlation with the speed May be some correlation with the mass ESWW12 Ostende November 2015