National Early Warning and Monitoring Centre of Natural Disasters - CEMADEN Osvaldo Moraes osvaldo.moraes@cemaden.gov.br

“Unprecedented wet conditions are reported in the 2014 summer (December–March) in South-western Amazon, with rainfall about 100% above normal.” Espinoza et al., Environ. Res. Let., 2014 “Amazon basin has experienced several intense droughts among which were highlighted last recent ones in 2005 and 2010.” Panisset et al - EGU2017 proceedings. “The drought conditions that started in 2010 in northeastern Brazil persisted in 2016” - STATE OF THE CLIMATE IN 2016 - Special Supplement to the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2017 Floods and flash floods represent 32% of ND Source: Brazilian Atlas of ND “By January 2015, main reservoirs had reached storage levels of only 5% of their 1.3 billion m3 capacity” – Nobre et. al., Journal of Water Resource and Protection, 2016.

CEMADEN: Towards an interdisciplinary perspective Understanding: what different type of data need to be collected? How to engage citizens? Forecasting: How to include emerging data in forecasting models and systems? Alerting: how to issue warnings in face of uncertainties? How to communicate risks? 3

Research lines in CEMADEN Hydrology Flood risks mapping Determination of rainfall thresholds for the occurrence of the flashfloods Hydrologic forecasts using distributed hydrological models Probabilistic forecasts using hydrological models Meteorology Improved estimation of rainfall (QPE) based on radar information Improvements in the parameterization of mesoscale atmospheric models Application of agro-meteorological models to detect crop failure in the Brazilian semiarid Forest fires Geology Correlation rainfall-landslides Characterization of landslides types based on rainfall characteristics Use of soil moisture models in the prediction of landslides Environmental constraints and vulnerability to debris flows and mud-slides. Disasters Communication and dissemination of early warnings Influence of Housing in landslide susceptibility and risk assessment Mapping Vulnerability to landslides

Operation at CEMADEN Multidisciplinar teams: Geologists Geographers Civil and agricultural Engineers Hydrologists Meteorologists TI people Opened in 2011 24 hours/7 days a week monitoring Preparation of risk alerts for landslides, floods, flash floods at the district level 958 districts under monitoring by now

Observational Monitoring network hydrological gauges Weather radar rain gauges

SGRP: remote platform management system & SALVAR: System of Alert and Visualization of Risk Areas

SGRP: Receives and integrates all data set of CEMADEN's network and others partners. From the CEMADEN network it automatically supervises the status of the platforms; fault diagnosis, remote reconfiguration of field equipment, notifications and failures reports AND maintenance schedule. Partners Network: INMET: 558 ANA: 2726 FUNCEME: 620 CEMIG: 175 SIMEPAR: 108 INEA: 87 RADARS: 32 Cemaden Network: Automatic Rain Gauges: 3500 Hydrological PCD: 310; Geotecnics PCD 10; Semiarid region: 695 Radars: 9

information can be found at SALVAR: makes the operational transposition of a large amount of meteorological, hydrological, geological, topographic, geotechnical, demographic, socioeconomic information to a single GIS map. It collects data from the multiple partner institutions for a computer language that enables monitoring and early warnings. information can be found at http://www.cemaden.gov.br/mapainterativo/

. Bacia Urbana de Nova Friburgo – RJ (160 km²) Flood awareness using nowcasting and multi-source nowcasting (SHORT TERM FORECASTING) . Bacia Urbana de Nova Friburgo – RJ (160 km²) . Resolução espacial de 250 m x 250 m (mod. hidro. MHD-INPE) 1 km x 1km (radar met. Pico do Couto) Estação Conselheiro Paulino -INEA Vazão (m³/s) Tempo (h) 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 ALERTA MODERADO ALERTA ALTO PERIGO MÉDIO PERIGO ALTO PERIGO BAIXO

Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Modelo Hidrológico Radar MHD-INPE LISFLOOD

Case Study: Madeira river results MHD-INPE GloFAS

Sao Francisco River basin: Weekly monitoring and early warning for risks of flow running to hydropower stations

Drought Risk Reduction in NE Brazil

Making emergency policies for disaster mitigation in NE Brazil Financial benefits for people affected by the drought; Financial support for well drilling; Distribution of water for population; Etc;

Sistema Cantareira: Weekly monitoring and early warning for water supply system under drought risk Seasonal scenarios of river flows Ensemble forecast of river flows Data assimilation from uncertainty of river flows

Coastal vulnerability: sea level rise and storm surges in Santos, SP 2050 (High SLR: 0.23 m + 1.60 m) Lost asset value 2100 (High SLR: 0.45 m + 1.66 m) Lost asset value Medium vulnerability High vulnerability Zanetti et al (2016) Marengo et al (2016)

OBRIGADO! Osvaldo L L Moraes osvaldo.moraes@cemaden.gov.br