Kāore ngā tatauranga i rūkahu Kāore ngā tatauranga i rūkahu. The numbers don’t lie: Te Reo Speakers in 2050 Ngā Pae o Te Māramatanga Conference, 28 November 2014 Katharina Ruckstuhl (Ngāi Tahu, Rangitane) and Janine Wright University of Otago

NEW MĀORI LANGUAGE STRATEGY Census: 588,000 Māori of whom 21% (125,000) are able to speak Māori language. This represents a decrease of just over 6,000 Māori who are able to speak the language compared to the previous census, down from 131,000 (Statistics New Zealand, 2013).

2014 Māori language strategy increasing the status of the Māori language in New Zealand society; increasing the number of whānau Māori and other New Zealanders who can speak Māori; increasing critical awareness about Māori language revitalisation; supporting the quality and appropriate use of the Māori language and iwi dialect maintenance; and increasing the use of the Māori language among whānau Māori and other New Zealanders especially in the home

REVIEW OF PREVIOUS STRATEGY: 2011 Waitangai Tribunal (WAI 262) & Te Paepae Motuhake Review Structural Change Change in Emphasis Aspirational Goal: 80% of Māori speaking Māori by 2050

What happened to the 80% Goal? Dropped in favour of ‘headline indicators’ (to be developed) other ‘quantitative and qualitative Māori language research’ to supplement the indicators

Given the current numbers of Māori language speakers who are Māori, what would it take to get 80% of them speaking Māori in 2050? ‘what actors attempt to influence what behaviors, of which people, for what ends, under what conditions, by what means, through what decision making process, with what effect?’ (G. Eggington, 2010, p. 367).

MODEL: ASSUMPTIONS 1. All speakers of Māori also speak English (that is they are bilingual) pB = 1 – pE.; 2. Intergenerational Māori language transference will happen in two- parent families. Within these families, no ‘mate’ preference for a partner; P(BB) = pB x pB = pB2; P(BE) = 2 x pB x pE = 2pB(1-pB), as there are two ways to form a BE type family (BE or EB); and P(EE) = pE x pE = (1-pB) x (1-pB) = (1-pB)2.

MODEL: ASSUMPTIONS contd. 3. The amount of Māori language heard by a child will depend on a) the amount spoken at home EE type families: Cfamily(M|EE) = 0, BB type families: Cfamily(M|BB) =f BE type families: Cfamily(M|BE) =f b) the amount heard in the community (including via ‘interventions’ eg radio, tv, social media, signage etc) Ccommunity(M) = 0.5 P(BB) = 0.5 pB2 C(M| XiXj ) = e Cfamily(M| XiXj ) + (1- e - η) Ccommunity(M) + η,

MODEL: ASSUMPTIONS contd. 4. We look at the effect of these assumptions over 200 years - calculate the net difference between language ‘births’ and language ‘deaths’. 5. Estimate the 2050 Māori population (using projections from Statistics New Zealand): 80% of Māori = 16% of the total New Zealand population.

SCENARIOS VARYING AMOUNT OF language exposure in bilingual families VS COMMUNITY INTERVENTION .

REACHING THE 80% TARGET: Scenario 1 bilingual families speak Māori language in the home environment for 25% of the time with 3% of all children ‘converted’ from English speakers to Māori language speakers through the education system. Additionally, ‘government interventions’ (eg radio, tv, signage, posters, social media) would need to account for 15% of the total language exposure for each individual. Equates to individuals being exposed to Māori language 2 hours every day with an additional 2.4 hours of daily exposure to signage, television, radio or other similar interventions beyond the family and school.

REACHING THE 80% TARGET: SCENARIO 2 Assuming that for all bilingual speakers: 25% or 2 hours per day is a realistic amount of time that Māori language might be spoken in the home environment, and that there is no ‘conversion’ by education; increasing exposure to ‘other interventions’ to 2.8 hours of total language exposure allows target to be reached.

Effect of education

CONCLUSION the quickest way to increase and then maintain Māori language in the population is to use mechanisms such as government intervention that act across the whole community or to use an education ‘conversion’ system. The balance between such interventions is crucial and any strategy that places most emphasis on increasing exposure to Māori language in double bilingual families is likely to be less effective in enabling the 80% target to be reached within the timeframe. This is because the initial proportion of bilingual Māori speakers in the population is so low.

CAUTIONS Cautious about being overly reliant on increasing numbers of in-home speakers but not an argument for not promoting or increasing resources to such families. Argue that if the success of the strategy is going to be monitored and measured using targets with timeframes, need to be very clear about what this will involve in terms of the posited numbers of hours of exposure to the language from all sources and the proportions and numbers of people involved.

HOW ELSE MIGHT SUCH MODELLING BE USED? National Monitoring Iwi/Hapū Monitoring Individual Other non-Māori language Monitoring

NATIONAL LEVEL CALCULATOR: Wales Kandler, Unger, Steel (2010) How many English monolinguals have to learn Gaelic per year to stabilise the bilingual population? 860 English speakers have to become bilingual every year, this would drop to 440 if roughly 340 more children who live in bilingual households were raised in both languages.

Māori language ‘calculator’ (eg sorted.org.nz) What is your ML goal? [eg for each person/some of the whanau to hold a conversation in ML for 10 mins/30mins/1 hour within the next year] How many hours of ML do you speak in the home each day? How many hours of ML does your partner speak in the home each day? How many hours of ML do your tamariki speak ML in the home each day? How many hours of ML tv/radio/books/internet do you/partner/children watch/read/listen to each day each day? Etc etc

How the calculator works To Speak ML within your whanau for 1 hour each day you have the following options: [the options identify the optimal ways to reach the target within the timeframe] Links to resources

AKI: Māori LANGUAGE ONLINE VOCABULARY GAMING APP (APPSTORE)