Will an Improving Retail Sector Extend into 2018? Creating Profilers for the major holiday shopping seasons is always tricky since they must be available to you and your clients well in advance, for Valentine’s Day, in this case (which is a Wednesday for 2018), but there aren’t many forecasts published yet. Nonetheless, 2017 US retail sales have been good. According to US Census Bureau data, adjusted retail sales and food services increased 4.3% through September, exceeding the National Retail Federation’s (NRF) forecast for the entire year of 3.2 to 3.8%. Forecasts for the Christmas holiday shopping season, or Q4 2017, range from just less than 4.0% to 4.5%; however, the big question for retailers is whether 2017’s relatively good performance will continue into Q1 2018, and for Valentine’s Day.

In Search of Maximum Valentine’s Day Value NRF forecasted total Valentine’s Day 2017 spending at $18.2 billion, or 8.2% less than 2016’s record total of $19.7 billion. The cause was not a lack of effort from retailers, but the aging population, since fewer older adults are Valentine’s Day participants. February 2017 was not a great month for retail sales, according to RetailNext’s Retail Performance Pulse Report. Sales decreased 13.8%; traffic, -12.8%, and sales and returns transactions, -12.4%. According to recent metrological reports, winter 2017-2018 will be a La Nina season, resulting in above-average precipitation from the Northwest across the northern tier of states, but much dryer and warmer in the Southwest, Southeast and Mid-Atlantic.

It’s the Most Chocolaty Time of the Year The tradition is that almost everyone wants to receive chocolate or candy for Valentine’s Day – 94% of Americans, according to the National Confectioners Association (NCA) – and typically an estimated 70% of Americans give chocolate or candy. Keep in mind that NCA research finds that 43% of Americans will buy chocolates for themselves: women, 47%; men, 42%; and Millennials younger than 30, 55%. According to Information Resources, Inc. (IRI) data, candy sales increased at mass merchandisers, 2.4%; convenience stores, +2.5%; and dollar stores, +2.3%, during 2016, while decreasing at drug stores, -2.2%, and warehouse clubs, -3.6%.

A Rose by Any Other Name Sells as Sweet According to the Society of American Florists (SAF), approximately 88% of florists experienced increased sales for Valentine’s Day 2017, primarily because it was a Tuesday, which mean 2018’s Wednesday date should generate similar results. 34% (the highest percentage) of florists said their sales increased more than 21%, but of those who experienced decreased sales, 29% (the highest percentage) said it was because of competition from mass marketers/supermarkets. As expected, red roses accounted for the most orders, at 67%, with all roses, 51%. On average, florists charged $85 for a dozen arranged, long-stemmed roses and $66 for a dozen unarranged long-stemmed roses.

Romantic Dinner Destinations For Valentine’s Day 2017, more than 110 million Americans were expected to dine at a restaurant, spending an estimated $8 billion. Suggest that your restaurant clients consider reducing the number of large tables and adding more tables for two and to train their wait staff to upsell wines, desserts, etc. According to WalletHub, the top 5 US cities for Valentine’s Day 2017 were San Francisco, CA; Scottsdale, AZ; Orlando, FL; Honolulu, HI; and Seattle, WA.

Advertising Strategies An often-under-promoted target audience for Valentine’s Day is singles, or adults not in a relationship. Retailers can boost revenues with messages aimed at this audience; and research reveals that single men spend almost twice as much as single women. Bing search-engine results found that almost half of all consumers wait until early February to start shopping for Valentine’s Day, so advertisers will generate more value from their ad budgets by concentrating their media buys and promotions during the first two weeks. Suggest that your prospects and clients offer a Valentine’s Day coupon during the Christmas shopping season with a qualifying purchase.

New Media Strategies Promote a “Most Romantic Couple” contest with in-restaurant signage, etc. prior to Valentine’s day and on social media. Couples post a photo of themselves in the restaurant, using its hashtag. The winner of a drawing receives a 2-for-1 or free dinner at a later date. Award customers with a future discount/coupon who post a video of their favorite Valentine’s Day story on your social media page. Approximately 40% of Americans would prefer a gift of experience instead of the traditional flowers, chocolates, etc. Help advertisers create an “experience” promotion and ask participants to post videos of their experience and why they preferred it.